Texas State Capitol, 1100 Congress Avenue, Austin, Texas
SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
Polymarket[1][2] resolves on "the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election"; federal law sets Election Day on November 3, 2026, and the market's own end date is that day. Polymarket
Polymarket
Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.
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