ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins83% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 83%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
Estimated: a "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. The largest step between consecutive strikes (taking the highest quote seen so far where a later strike is quoted lower) is Feb 1, 2027 (5%) to Mar 1, 2027 (7%), so the window opens on Feb 1, 2027. Quotes are bid/ask midpoints read on 27 October 2026. Estimated contract-count-times-last-price volume across active strikes is about US$172 (2,243 contracts); this is not reported cash turnover.[1] Kalshi
On 27 October 2026 Kalshi put an official Olipop IPO confirmation at 2% before Nov 1, 2026, rising to 13% before Jun 1, 2027. The largest step in the ladder runs from Feb 1, 2027 to Mar 1, 2027 (5% to 7%), so that window is the market's most likely stretch; it is a bet on timing, not a listing date.
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