- Start
- Sep 28, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
- End
- Sep 28, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Starship launches Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14)
- SpaceX is targeting Starship Flight 14 no earlier than 28 September 2026 from Starbase, with FAA launch licence approval for the first planned orbital profile named as the main near-term catalyst[4]
- The target date has moved: a Florida Today piece of 16 September said “SpaceX's first attempt to launch its Starship rocket into orbit could come as early as Sept. 22 in South Texas”, while the market summary updated on 20 September gives no earlier than 28 September[3][4]
- Kalshi's date ladder has the flight launching before 29 September at 55%, before 30 September at 70% and before 1 October at 72%, on $227,921 of volume in a market opened on 17 September 2026[3]
- Kalshi contradicts itself on the first of those: the list shows “Before Sep 29, 2026” at 55% while the order ticket beside it reads “Odds 57% chance”[3]
- Polymarket's equivalents put a launch by 26 September at 1%, by 30 September at 73% and by 31 October at 96%[4]
- On the flight itself, Polymarket prices a successful controlled splashdown of the upper stage at 83% and a Super Heavy booster explosion at 89% — though that market counts an explosion “at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing”, including a planned termination event[4]
- A chopsticks catch is all but ruled out for this flight: the booster catch trades at 1% and the Starship catch at 3%, consistent with an offshore booster landing and an ocean splashdown; the Starship-catch market is nonetheless the page's largest by volume at $462,614[4]
- The planned profile: the Block 3 Super Heavy booster and Ship 41 attempt orbital insertion at roughly 275 km, then deploy 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites — “the first revenue-generating payload” — followed by a single-Raptor deorbit burn and a controlled Pacific splashdown[4]
- Hardware upgrades for this flight address Flight 13 issues, including improved engine filtering and relight reliability on the booster plus enhanced tile retention[4]
- The stakes are framed as orbital: Starship “has not reached orbit in more than three years of flight tests. That could be about to change with flight 14”[3]
- Kalshi counts the launch date as “the calendar date on which liftoff occurred, measured in the local timezone of the launch site, as publicly confirmed by SpaceX”, and carries a notice that the series “has transitioned to the LAUNCH contract”[3]
- Polymarket counts the attempt only if the rocket lifts off the pad, with any subsequent anomaly having no bearing on the launch-date outcome, and every market resolving “No” if the 14th launch has not happened by 30 June 2027[4]
- Polymarket's page disagrees with itself about when it opened, the details panel giving 1 September 2026 and the FAQ 31 July 2026, on total volume of $703,371[4]
References 679% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%spacex.com/launches/starship-flight-14spacex.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Sep 28, 2026 ✓· Ends Sep 28, 2026 ✓· 17% of score
SpaceX, quoted 22 Sep 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 7:15 a.m. CT." Already slipped once from 22 Sep, and the FAA licence was still pending.
- [2]72%Starship Flight 14 gets delayed, SpaceX moves Booster 21 to Starbase launch pad - Tesla Oracleteslaoracle.com· Published Sep 22, 2026· 17% of score
Newest item: quotes SpaceX's[1] 7:15 a.m. CT window on 28 Sep and says the FAA launch licence is still pending.
- [3]80%Kalshi: SpaceX Starship 14th launch?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 17% of score
Kalshi runs a dated ladder on the 14th flight: before September 29 last traded at 55c and before September 30 at 70c, pricing a launch on or about September 28 as the likeliest single outcome while leaving real slip risk.
- [4]80%Polymarket: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14polymarket.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 17% of score
Polymarket prices the same flight launching by September 30 at 73% and by October 31 at 96%, independently supporting a late-September date.
- [5]85%SpaceX targets September 28 for the Starship's first orbital flight - Engadgetengadget.com· Published Sep 19, 2026· 17% of score
Reports the 28 Sep target and 75-minute window pending regulatory approval, 26 Starlink V3 satellites, and the slip from 22 Sep.[1]
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