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Falcon 9 launches Starlink Group 15-27
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCE3 days agoLaunch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]A batch of 27 satellites for the Starlink mega-constellation - SpaceX's project for space-based Internet communication system. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.0.78Starship launches Starlink Group 31-1 (Starship Flight 14)
SCHEDULED79% CONFIDENCEin 5 daysSpaceX[1], quoted 22 Sep 2026: "Now targeting to launch Starship Flight 14 as early as Monday, September 28, pending regulatory approval. The 75-minute launch window will open at 7:15 a.m. CT." Already slipped once from 22 Sep, and the FAA licence was still pending.KalshiPolymarket14th test flight of the two-stage Starship launch vehicle. 3rd flight of Starship V3 and the first Starship flight to deploy satellites (a group of Starlink satellites known as Starlink Group 31-1) into stable Low Earth Orbit. The ship is expected to fly at an altitude approximately 275 km above Earth and complete approximately 6 orbits around the planet for nearly 10 hours, with splashdown targeted in the Pacific Ocean west of Chile. The booster’s primary test objective on Flight 14 will be executing a successful launch, ascent, stage separation, boostback burn, and landing burn at an offshore landing point in the Gulf. Starship will deliver 26 Starlink V3 satellites to orbit for the first time, which aim to greatly expand the network's capacity and user speeds. Each Starlink V3 satellite will add 1 Tbps of capacity to the constellation. Lifts off from Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Gulf of Mexico.0.74Falcon 9 launches USSF-385
SCHEDULED77% CONFIDENCEin 3 daysSpaceflight Now[3] (checked 2026-09-23): "Window opens at 4:56 a.m. PDT (7:56 a.m. EDT / 1156 UTC)" on 26 September from SLC-4E, Vandenberg; launches slip.A classified mission for the United States Space Force. It is possibly a batch of classified LEO satellites based on SpaceX’s Starshield satellite bus, based on locations of rocket stage drop zones being exact fits with previous Starlink Group 15 launches. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E, Vandenberg SFB, CA, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Of Course I Still Love You.0.70Falcon 9 launches Crew-13
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysLaunch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]SpaceX Crew-13 is the thirteenth crewed operational flight of a Crew Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station as part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. Lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40, Cape Canaveral SFS, FL, USA to Low Earth Orbit. The booster is due to land at Landing Zone 40.0.65SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysAn annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.KalshiPolymarketKalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.0.63Kinetica 1 launches 9 satellites
SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCE3 days agoLaunch Library 2 lists this as the no-earlier-than launch time; launches slip.[1]Share-ride of 9 commercial Earth observation and technology demonstration satellites to SSO, details TBD. Lifts off from Launch Area 130, Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, People's Republic of China to Sun-Synchronous Orbit.0.62The GCAP Combat Air Demonstrator Begins Flight Testing
ESTIMATED62% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsA span the event runs from, per aerospacetestinginternational.com[1]: "Power-on is planned for mid-2027, aircraft ready by the end-2027 with flight test starting from early 2028", so the pin takes the first day of that period.Flight tests of the UK’s crewed sixth-generation demonstrator are due to start from early 2028, after power-on in mid-2027. More than 11,500 parts – about 90% of the aircraft’s weight – have been designed and released, with final assembly under way in Lancashire.0.60Arianespace Launches Ariane 6 on Its Maiden Flight, VA262
CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE2.2 years agoArianespace's newsroom and Wikipedia's[2][3] Ariane flight VA262 article confirm Ariane 6's maiden flight lifted off from Kourou on 9 July 2024.Europe's new heavy-lift launcher Ariane 6, built by ArianeGroup, flew for the first time from the Guiana Space Centre. The inaugural flight met its main objectives despite an anomaly in an upper-stage auxiliary unit late in the mission.0.60Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit
ESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsNo docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.KalshiPolymarketDocking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.0.59Amazon Leo Consumer Satellite Internet Launch
ESTIMATED6 months late74% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysAmazon says consumer service comes 'later this year'; one report puts consumer beta in five countries in late 2026 or early 2027. The last day of 2026 is used.[1]Amazon says it has launched enough Leo satellites for initial service and will open its satellite broadband to consumers later in 2026, after an enterprise preview that began April 8.0.58ALSO TM-B Launch Edition Deliveries Begin
DELAYED~2 months late77% CONFIDENCE51 days agoNo source names the day. TechCrunch[2][3], on Friday 31 July 2026, said deliveries start "next week"; ALSO confirmed on 19 August that the bike "has started shipping to customers across the U.S." The pin takes Monday 3 August, the first day of that week - estimated, all-day, and the product page itself carries no date.The first TM-B Launch Edition e-bikes reached US riders in the week of 3 August 2026, about six weeks later than the spring ALSO promised at the bike's unveiling. The Rivian spinout's Class 3 debut runs to 100 miles on a charge and swaps its Top Frame from cargo to passenger duty in under three seconds.$4.5K0.58GeForce GTX 780 Ti Launch
CONFIRMED92% CONFIDENCE12.9 years agoHappened as dated, per hexus.net[1]: "…y surprising given AMD's Radeon R9 290X launch last week and serving as a tacit understanding that i…"best GPU that's ever been built.$699.000.58
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