Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.72
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.72
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.72
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 259 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
0.71
Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.66
Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 04/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 217 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 01/27/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 126 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.66
Finance05/09/2023@ThePinGang
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%
Federal Reserve
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

Starts 05/08/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago
Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.
0.64
Finance05/12/2023@ThePinGang
Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.
Federal Reserve
6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.
— RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

Starts 05/11/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago
Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.
0.64

FinancePosted 05/09/202305/09/2023 at 6:16 am@ThePinGang To timeline

FOMC Participant's Assessments Of Appropriate Monetary Policy: "DOT-PLOT"

Starts 03/22/2023 UNVERIFIED 89% CONFIDENCEDate has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.

Start: Mar 22, 202325% CONFIDENCE Low confidencefrom the source

FOMC Participant's Assessments Of Appropriate Monetary Policy: "DOT-PLOT"

Dated (unconfirmed) to 2023-03-22.
Associated with Federal Reserve.

@ThePinGang

References 389% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]25%
cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
cmegroup.com· Posted May 9, 2023· Starts Mar 22, 2023 ✓· 1% of score
Date has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.
[2]90%
FOMC Meeting Calendars
federalreserve.gov· Added Sep 14, 2026· 98% of score
The Federal Reserve's^[3] own calendar page confirms the March 2023 FOMC meeting was held "March 21-22," with projection materials tied to that date, matching the pin's stored 22 March date.
[3]95%
Summary of Economic Projections, March 22, 2023 - Federal Reserve
federalreserve.gov· Published Mar 22, 2023· 1% of score
The Federal Reserve's^[2] own document title and URL, "Summary of Economic Projections, March 22, 2023," directly match the pin's stored date as the primary dot-plot source for that meeting, though the PDF's binary content could not be extracted as text.

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1FOMC Participant's Assessments Of Appropriate Monetary Policy: "DOT-PLOT"

Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.72
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.72
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.72
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 259 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
0.71
Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.66
Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 04/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 217 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 01/27/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 126 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.66
Finance05/09/2023@ThePinGang
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%
Federal Reserve
Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

Starts 05/08/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago
Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.
0.64
Finance05/12/2023@ThePinGang
Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.
Federal Reserve
6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.
— RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

Starts 05/11/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago
Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.
0.64