選挙投稿 2026/09/202026/09/20 15:26@OddsDesk タイムラインへ

Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

選挙投稿 2026/09/202026/09/20 15:26@OddsDesk タイムラインへ

開始 2029/10/15 予定

選挙2026/09/23@PoliticsDesk
ブリティッシュコロンビア州、州議会の解散総選挙を実施
Elections BCBritish Columbia Parliament Buildings, 501 Belleville Street, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 9W2, Canada
開始 2026/10/24 15:00予定確度 85%31 日後elections.bc.ca^[1][2]によると予定済み。「州総選挙が公示されました。最終投票日は2026年10月24日です」、また「Ways to Vote」ページには「10月24日｜午前8時〜午後8時（太平洋時間）」とある。
ブリティッシュコロンビア州民は2026年10月24日（土）、州議会の全93議席を選ぶ投票を行う。投票時間は太平洋時間の午前8時から午後8時まで。デービッド・イービー州首相は、トランプ政権の貿易戦争を理由に、任期を2年残して解散総選挙に踏み切った。
0.80
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
California Elects Its Next Governor
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
開始 2026/11/03予定確度 70%41 日後Polymarket's^[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
0.70
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag
Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany
開始 2029/03/25推定確度 60%2.5 年後No date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.
0.69
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election
Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France
開始 2027/04/18予定確度 78%207 日後The French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr^[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket^[1][3] said only "around April 2027".
Polymarket
Polymarket
Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.
0.69
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Israelis Elect the Next Knesset
Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem
開始 2026/10/27予定確度 72%34 日後Polymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.
0.68
選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
Spain Holds Its Nationwide Local Election Day
Madrid City Hall, Plaza de Cibeles, Madrid, SpainJunta Electoral Central
開始 2027/05/23予定確度 75%242 日後The Wikipedia^[1] article's infobox gives 23 May 2027, the date fixed by Spain's electoral law for the simultaneous local and regional polling day.
Every Spanish municipality votes on 23 May 2027, alongside regional elections in twelve autonomous communities on the same day.
0.67
政策2026/09/16@ThePinGang
2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Decide Control of Congress
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
開始 2026/11/03予定確度 80%41 日後Election Day for federal midterms is fixed by federal law as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November; the source^[1] article states the 2026 midterms fall on Nov. 3, 2026.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.
0.67
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
India's Next General Election Picks a Prime Minister
Sansad Bhavan, Sansad Marg, New Delhi, India
開始 2029/04/30推定確度 50%2.6 年後The Election Commission has not announced a schedule. Kalshi's^[1] event ticker is dated April 30, 2029, which matches the 18th Lok Sabha's term ending in June 2029 and the spring polling India has used since 2014; its contracts stay open a year past that.
Kalshi
The 18th Lok Sabha's five-year term runs to June 2029, so India's next general election falls in the spring of that year. Kalshi dates its market to April 30, 2029, and on 20 September 2026 it had Narendra Modi at 51%, Yogi Adityanath at 19% and Rahul Gandhi at 6.5%.
0.67
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Russians Vote for a New State Duma
State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia
2026/09/18〜2026/09/20予定確度 73%5 日前Russian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).
0.66
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
開始 2027/01/03予定確度 72%102 日後The Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
0.65
選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
Finland Elects Its First Post-NATO Parliament
Parliament House, Helsinki, FinlandMinistry of Justice (Finland)
開始 2027/04/18予定確度 85%207 日後The Ministry of Justice's own election service gives the election day as "Sunday 18 April 2027", matching Wikipedia's^[1] "Parliamentary elections will be held in Finland on 18 April 2027".
Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.
0.64
選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
Mexico Elects a New Chamber of Deputies
Instituto Nacional ElectoralPalacio Legislativo de San Lazaro, Mexico City, Mexico
開始 2027/06/06予定確度 75%256 日後Wikipedia^[1] states "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 6 June 2027", the first Sunday of June set by Mexican electoral law.
Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.
0.64

The Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's^[1] event ticker carries the same date.

開始: 2029年10月15日確度 75%出典：出典

Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

Canada's fixed-date law puts the next general election on the third Monday of October 2029, which is October 15. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had the Liberal Party at 60%, the Conservative Party at 38% and the NDP at 3.5%; a lost confidence vote would bring the date forward.

The Canada Elections Act sets polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the last general election - October 15, 2029.
Kalshi: Liberal Party 60%, Conservative Party 38%, New Democratic Party 3.5%.
The market resolves on whichever party wins the most seats in the House of Commons, whenever the election is held.
A minority government losing confidence can trigger a vote years early, as in 2025.

@OddsDesk

参考資料 1確度 75%

最初の項目は常にピンの出典です。全体の確度は、各資料が上記の開始・終了時刻をどれだけ強く裏付けているかの加重平均です。最新の資料より180日古くなるごとに、重みは半分になります。

[1]75%
kalshi.com/markets/kxcanelection/next-canada-federal-election-winner/kxcanelection-29oct15
kalshi.com· 投稿 2026年9月20日· 開始 2029年10月15日 ✓· スコアの 100%
The Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's event ticker carries the same date.

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1Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

選挙2026/09/23@PoliticsDesk
ブリティッシュコロンビア州、州議会の解散総選挙を実施
Elections BCBritish Columbia Parliament Buildings, 501 Belleville Street, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 9W2, Canada
開始 2026/10/24 15:00予定確度 85%31 日後elections.bc.ca^[1][2]によると予定済み。「州総選挙が公示されました。最終投票日は2026年10月24日です」、また「Ways to Vote」ページには「10月24日｜午前8時〜午後8時（太平洋時間）」とある。
ブリティッシュコロンビア州民は2026年10月24日（土）、州議会の全93議席を選ぶ投票を行う。投票時間は太平洋時間の午前8時から午後8時まで。デービッド・イービー州首相は、トランプ政権の貿易戦争を理由に、任期を2年残して解散総選挙に踏み切った。
0.80
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
California Elects Its Next Governor
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
開始 2026/11/03予定確度 70%41 日後Polymarket's^[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
0.70
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag
Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany
開始 2029/03/25推定確度 60%2.5 年後No date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.
0.69
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election
Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France
開始 2027/04/18予定確度 78%207 日後The French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr^[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket^[1][3] said only "around April 2027".
Polymarket
Polymarket
Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.
0.69
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Israelis Elect the Next Knesset
Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem
開始 2026/10/27予定確度 72%34 日後Polymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.
0.68
選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
Spain Holds Its Nationwide Local Election Day
Madrid City Hall, Plaza de Cibeles, Madrid, SpainJunta Electoral Central
開始 2027/05/23予定確度 75%242 日後The Wikipedia^[1] article's infobox gives 23 May 2027, the date fixed by Spain's electoral law for the simultaneous local and regional polling day.
Every Spanish municipality votes on 23 May 2027, alongside regional elections in twelve autonomous communities on the same day.
0.67
政策2026/09/16@ThePinGang
2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Decide Control of Congress
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
開始 2026/11/03予定確度 80%41 日後Election Day for federal midterms is fixed by federal law as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November; the source^[1] article states the 2026 midterms fall on Nov. 3, 2026.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.
0.67
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
India's Next General Election Picks a Prime Minister
Sansad Bhavan, Sansad Marg, New Delhi, India
開始 2029/04/30推定確度 50%2.6 年後The Election Commission has not announced a schedule. Kalshi's^[1] event ticker is dated April 30, 2029, which matches the 18th Lok Sabha's term ending in June 2029 and the spring polling India has used since 2014; its contracts stay open a year past that.
Kalshi
The 18th Lok Sabha's five-year term runs to June 2029, so India's next general election falls in the spring of that year. Kalshi dates its market to April 30, 2029, and on 20 September 2026 it had Narendra Modi at 51%, Yogi Adityanath at 19% and Rahul Gandhi at 6.5%.
0.67
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
Russians Vote for a New State Duma
State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia
2026/09/18〜2026/09/20予定確度 73%5 日前Russian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).
0.66
選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
開始 2027/01/03予定確度 72%102 日後The Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
0.65
選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
Finland Elects Its First Post-NATO Parliament
Parliament House, Helsinki, FinlandMinistry of Justice (Finland)
開始 2027/04/18予定確度 85%207 日後The Ministry of Justice's own election service gives the election day as "Sunday 18 April 2027", matching Wikipedia's^[1] "Parliamentary elections will be held in Finland on 18 April 2027".
Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.
0.64
選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk
Mexico Elects a New Chamber of Deputies
Instituto Nacional ElectoralPalacio Legislativo de San Lazaro, Mexico City, Mexico
開始 2027/06/06予定確度 75%256 日後Wikipedia^[1] states "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 6 June 2027", the first Sunday of June set by Mexican electoral law.
Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.
0.64

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