Russians Vote for a New State Duma

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag

  Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany

  

  開始 2029/03/25推定確度 60%2.5 年後No date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.

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  The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.

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• 選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Finland Elects Its First Post-NATO Parliament

  Parliament House, Helsinki, FinlandMinistry of Justice (Finland)

  

  開始 2027/04/18予定確度 85%207 日後The Ministry of Justice's own election service gives the election day as "Sunday 18 April 2027", matching Wikipedia's^[1] "Parliamentary elections will be held in Finland on 18 April 2027".

  Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.

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• 選挙2026/09/23@PoliticsDesk

  ブリティッシュコロンビア州、州議会の解散総選挙を実施

  Elections BCBritish Columbia Parliament Buildings, 501 Belleville Street, Victoria, British Columbia V8W 9W2, Canada

  開始 2026/10/24 15:00予定確度 85%31 日後elections.bc.ca^[1][2]によると予定済み。「州総選挙が公示されました。最終投票日は2026年10月24日です」、また「Ways to Vote」ページには「10月24日｜午前8時〜午後8時（太平洋時間）」とある。

  ブリティッシュコロンビア州民は2026年10月24日（土）、州議会の全93議席を選ぶ投票を行う。投票時間は太平洋時間の午前8時から午後8時まで。デービッド・イービー州首相は、トランプ政権の貿易戦争を理由に、任期を2年残して解散総選挙に踏み切った。

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• 選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Mexico Elects a New Chamber of Deputies

  Instituto Nacional ElectoralPalacio Legislativo de San Lazaro, Mexico City, Mexico

  開始 2027/06/06予定確度 75%256 日後Wikipedia^[1] states "Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 6 June 2027", the first Sunday of June set by Mexican electoral law.

  Mexicans elect all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies on 6 June 2027, the midterm test of Claudia Sheinbaum's supermajority, held alongside state elections.

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

  Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

  

  開始 2029/10/15予定確度 75%3.1 年後The Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's^[1] event ticker carries the same date.

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  Canada's fixed-date law puts the next general election on the third Monday of October 2029, which is October 15. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had the Liberal Party at 60%, the Conservative Party at 38% and the NDP at 3.5%; a lost confidence vote would bring the date forward.

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• 選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Kyrgyzstan Elects a President

  Central Election Commission of the Kyrgyz RepublicAla-Too Square, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

  開始 2027/01/27予定確度 80%126 日後Wikipedia^[1] states "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan on 27 January 2027", a date parliament set when it reset the electoral timetable.

  Kyrgyzstan holds a presidential election on 27 January 2027, brought forward after parliament reset the date. Incumbent Sadyr Japarov has said he will seek a second term.

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• 選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  ミクロネシア連邦、議会選挙を実施

  Palikir, Pohnpei, Federated States of MicronesiaFSM National Election Office

  

  開始 2027/03/02予定確度 83%160 日後Wikipedia^[1]は「ミクロネシア連邦では2027年3月2日に総選挙が実施される予定」と記しており、出典はミクロネシア連邦国家選挙管理事務所。

  ミクロネシア連邦は2027年3月2日、定数14の議会選挙を実施する。4年ごとに選出される各州選出の上院議員4人の改選も含まれる。

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• 地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

  Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

  

  開始 2026/12/31推定確度 64%99 日後No date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

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  On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

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• 自動車2026/09/23@TechDesk

  EU Member States Vote on EU-Wide Approval of Tesla FSD (Supervised)

  Tesla·…European Commission (Berlaymont), Rue de la Loi, European Quarter, 1040 Brussels, Belgium

  開始 2026/10/06推定確度 73%13 日後Reported, not confirmed: Tech Times^[1] says the TCMV 'is expected to hold a formal vote on October 6', while Reuters says only 'a vote could happen in October'; the Commission's comitology register lists no TCMV meeting after 30 June 2026 as of 22 September.

  The EU's Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles is expected to vote on extending the Dutch approval of Tesla's FSD (Supervised) to all 27 member states; it needs 15 states with 65% of the EU's population.

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Israelis Elect the Next Knesset

  Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem

  

  開始 2026/10/27予定確度 72%34 日後Polymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.

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  Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Brazil Votes in the First Round of Its Presidential Election

  Palacio do Planalto, Praca dos Tres Poderes, Brasilia, Brazil

  

  開始 2026/10/04予定確度 73%11 日後Polymarket's^[1][2] rules open with "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026", which is the first Sunday of October, the date Brazilian law sets.

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  Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's winner market, which includes any second round, had Flavio Bolsonaro at 58% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 42%; a runoff, if no one clears 50%, falls on October 25.

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• 音楽2026/09/21@MusicDesk

  Eurovision Comes to Burgas

  European Broadcasting UnionArena Burgas, Burgas, Bulgaria

  開始 2027/05/15予定確度 85%234 日後The EBU^[2] says Burgas will host the 71st contest and that the three live shows fall on "Tuesday 11 May, Thursday 13 May and Saturday 15 May 2027". The pin is dated to the grand final.

  Bulgaria hosts the Eurovision Song Contest for the first time, with two semi-finals on 11 and 13 May and the grand final on 15 May 2027 at Arena Burgas.

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