Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

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• 地政学2023/05/11@ThePinGang

  Ukraine counteroffensive: Mud season should end last week of May or first week of June before Ukraining can move

  2023/05/29〜2023/06/04確定確度 83%3.3 年前Happened as dated, per dw.com^[1]: "…will the mud season end? Kyiv plans to launch a counteroffensive against Russia this spring. A form…"

  Kyiv plans to launch a counteroffensive against Russia this spring. A former US military meteorologist has taken to Twitter to provide valuable predictions as to when ground conditions will be right.

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• 地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  米イラン停戦は10月31日まで持続するか

  

  開始 2026/10/31推定確度 68%38 日後10月31日はPolymarket^[1]の停戦に関する区分で最も遅い日付で、トレーダーは46%と評価している。停戦はそれより早く終わる可能性もある。

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  Polymarketは、脆弱な米イラン停戦がどれだけ持つかを問うている。2026年9月20日時点で、トレーダーは9月20日を越える確率を97%、9月30日までを80%、10月31日までを46%と見込んだ。6月の覚書が停滞し、7月にイランが商船を攻撃した後の水準だ。

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• 航空2026/09/15@BuildDesk

  Czech Republic and Sweden Sign a Joint Declaration to Extend the Gripen Lease

  Čáslav, Czech RepublicSaab

  

  開始 2024/08/31確定確度 75%2.1 年前Defence trade press dates the Czech-Swedish joint declaration on extending the Gripen lease beyond 2027 to 31 August 2024. The binding contract, for 12 jets to 2035, was still under evaluation in April 2025, so this date is the declaration and not the lease contract.^[1]

  Prague and Stockholm signed a joint declaration to keep the Čáslav-based Saab JAS 39 Gripen fleet flying beyond the lease's 2027 expiry, until Czech F-35s arrive; the binding contract covering 12 jets to 2035 was still being negotiated the following year. The deal underpins the fleet's ongoing depot-level overhauls, which strip and rebuild each jet roughly every few years.

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• 経済2026/09/21@EconDesk

  Trump Signs the Stopgap That Funds the Government to December 11

  The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, D.C., United StatesThe White House

  

  2026/09/02〜2026/12/11確定確度 90%21 日前The White House^[1] statement dates the signing of H.R. 6500 to Wednesday, September 2, 2026. The act is in force from that day and its appropriations run to 11 December 2026, the date named in section 106(3) of the enrolled text.

  H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, was signed on 2 September 2026, four weeks before the fiscal year ran out. Its appropriations run from 1 October to 11 December 2026, pushing the next shutdown fight past the midterm elections.

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Russians Vote for a New State Duma

  State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia

  

  2026/09/18〜2026/09/20予定確度 73%5 日前Russian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.

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  Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election

  Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

  

  開始 2029/10/15予定確度 75%3.1 年後The Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's^[1] event ticker carries the same date.

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  Canada's fixed-date law puts the next general election on the third Monday of October 2029, which is October 15. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had the Liberal Party at 60%, the Conservative Party at 38% and the NDP at 3.5%; a lost confidence vote would bring the date forward.

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• 地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner

  Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway

  

  開始 2026/10/09 9:00予定確度 86%16 日後NobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).

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  The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.

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• 選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Kyrgyzstan Elects a President

  Central Election Commission of the Kyrgyz RepublicAla-Too Square, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

  開始 2027/01/27予定確度 80%126 日後Wikipedia^[1] states "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan on 27 January 2027", a date parliament set when it reset the electoral timetable.

  Kyrgyzstan holds a presidential election on 27 January 2027, brought forward after parliament reset the date. Incumbent Sadyr Japarov has said he will seek a second term.

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• 政策2023/05/11@ThePinGang

  Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan

  開始 2027/01/01未確認確度 78%100 日後

  Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.

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• 不動産2026/09/14@BuildDesk

  NEOM Halts Construction on Saudi Arabia's The Line Until After 2030

  NEOM, Tabuk Province, Saudi ArabiaNEOM

  

  開始 2026/05/22確定確度 87%124 日前Happened as dated, per the source^[1]: "Saudi's NEOM halts work on The Line until after 2030."

  Saudi Arabia's NEOM authority paused further construction on The Line, its 170km linear megacity, until after 2030 amid a sweeping scale-back of the project's ambitions.

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag

  Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany

  

  開始 2029/03/25推定確度 60%2.5 年後No date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.

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  The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.

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• 経済2026/09/21@EconDesk

  Government Funding Runs Out Again on December 11

  United States Capitol, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Congress

  

  開始 2026/12/11予定確度 86%79 日後H.R. 6500 funds federal agencies through 11 December 2026, so the continuing resolution expires at the end of that day.^[1]

  The stopgap signed in September expires on 11 December 2026, the deadline for Congress to enact the twelve fiscal 2027 appropriations bills or pass another continuing resolution before agencies shut down.

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