Ukraine counteroffensive: Mud season should end last week of May or first week of June before Ukraining can move

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• 地政学2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

  Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

  

  開始 2026/12/31推定確度 64%99 日後No date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

   Polymarket

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   Polymarket

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  On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

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• 地政学2023/02/21@ThePinGang

  Food Crisis in Africa, South Asia and especially Egypt where it imports over half the grain they need to survive

  

  2023/09/01〜2023/10/31未確認確度 25%3.1 年前

  September and October, Egypt will have food crisis as Russia kills off Ukraine's Agriculture industry and ability to export through it's ports. Black Sea likely becomes a no-go zone.

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• 選挙2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Russians Vote for a New State Duma

  State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia

  

  2026/09/18〜2026/09/20予定確度 73%5 日前Russian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.

   Polymarket

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  Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).

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• 航空2026/09/15@BuildDesk

  Czech Republic and Sweden Sign a Joint Declaration to Extend the Gripen Lease

  Čáslav, Czech RepublicSaab

  

  開始 2024/08/31確定確度 75%2.1 年前Defence trade press dates the Czech-Swedish joint declaration on extending the Gripen lease beyond 2027 to 31 August 2024. The binding contract, for 12 jets to 2035, was still under evaluation in April 2025, so this date is the declaration and not the lease contract.^[1]

  Prague and Stockholm signed a joint declaration to keep the Čáslav-based Saab JAS 39 Gripen fleet flying beyond the lease's 2027 expiry, until Czech F-35s arrive; the binding contract covering 12 jets to 2035 was still being negotiated the following year. The deal underpins the fleet's ongoing depot-level overhauls, which strip and rebuild each jet roughly every few years.

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• 気候2026/09/21@ClimateDesk

  COP31、アンタルヤで開幕

  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAntalya Expo Center, Antalya, Türkiye

  2026/11/09〜2026/11/20予定確度 80%47 日後UNFCCC^[1]は、トルコ政府が第31回会合を「2026年11月9日（月）から11月20日（金）まで」主催すると記している。ピンの終了時点（非包含）は翌日のUTC午前0時。

  第31回国連気候変動会議は2026年11月9日から20日まで、トルコが主催しアンタルヤ・エキスポセンターで開催される。約10万人の参加が見込まれる。

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• インフラ2026/09/15@BuildDesk

  マクック貯水池の第2段階、2032年に延期

  McCook, Cook County, Illinois, USAMetropolitan Water Reclamation District of Greater Chicago

  

  開始 2032/12/31延期3 年遅れ確度 69%6.3 年後当初の2029年の期限から延期。出典によれば「マクック第2段階の稼働開始の現時点の見込みは2032年12月31日となっている」。^[1]

  シカゴの巨大洪水対策施設「ディープ・トンネル」貯水池の次の段階が、地域の石材需要の低迷により、当初の連邦期限から3年遅れとなった。

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• エネルギー2026/09/22@EnergyDesk

  Bohunice V1 Nuclear Reactors Fully Dismantled

  JAVYSBohunice Nuclear Power Plant, Jaslovské Bohunice, Slovakia

  開始 2022/07/29確定確度 90%4.2 年前Happened as dated, per the source^[1]: "The two VVER-440 V-230 reactors in Slovakia were decommissioned and disassembled on site".

  Slovakia finished fully dismantling the Soviet-era V1 reactors at Bohunice in July 2022, one of the few nuclear plants taken apart down to the reactor vessels.

  $1.3B

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• 選挙2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Kyrgyzstan Elects a President

  Central Election Commission of the Kyrgyz RepublicAla-Too Square, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

  開始 2027/01/27予定確度 80%126 日後Wikipedia^[1] states "Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan on 27 January 2027", a date parliament set when it reset the electoral timetable.

  Kyrgyzstan holds a presidential election on 27 January 2027, brought forward after parliament reset the date. Incumbent Sadyr Japarov has said he will seek a second term.

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• 労働2026/09/23@EconDesk

  Zalando Closes Its Erfurt Fulfilment Centre

  ZalandoZalando Logistics, 1, In der Hochstedter Ecke, GVZ Erfurt, Hochstedt, Büßleben, Erfurt, Thuringia, 99098, Germany

  開始 2026/09/30予定確度 80%7 日後Zalando's^[1] 8 January 2026 release says it will "close our fulfilment centre in Erfurt, Germany, planned for the end of September 2026", and on 9 July 2026 a spokesman told dpa "Es bleibe bei der Standortschließung Ende September" (the closure stays at the end of September); pinned to 30 September.

  Zalando is due to shut its Erfurt fulfilment centre at the end of September 2026, ending the jobs of about 2,100 remaining staff at a site that employed around 2,700 when the closure was announced.

  €80M

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• スポーツ2026/09/21@SportDesk

  The 2027 Austrian Grand Prix

  Red Bull Ring, Spielberg, Styria, AustriaFormula 1

  

  開始 2027/07/11予定確度 85%291 日後Formula 1's^[2] own 2027 schedule gives this round's weekend as "09 - 11 Jul"; the Grand Prix is run on the Sunday, the last day of the weekend.

  The shortest lap of the season runs up and down a Styrian hillside in barely over a minute.

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• 交通2026/09/15@BuildDesk

  Vancouver's Broadway Subway Delayed to Fall 2027

  Arbutus Station, Kitsilano, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

  

  開始 2027/10/31延期2 年遅れ確度 68%1.1 年後Given as scheduled, per the source^[1]: "testing continuing in stages throughout 2027 ahead of the planned opening in autumn 2027."

  A five-kilometre SkyTrain extension meant to unlock a taller, denser Broadway Corridor in Vancouver has slipped from its original early-2026 target to autumn 2027.

  $2.1B

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• アニメ2026/09/19@AnimeDesk

  Alya Sometimes Hides Her Feelings in Russian Season 2 Premieres

  Nerima, Tokyo, JapanDoga Kobo

  

  開始 2027/01/01推定確度 58%100 日後MyAnimeList^[1] and Wikipedia^[2] give only a 2027 premiere year, so the date is set to the first day of that year.

  Doga Kobo's second season of Alya Sometimes Hides Her Feelings in Russian, the romantic comedy about a classmate who flirts in a language she thinks he can't understand, is set to premiere in 2027.

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