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- Dec 17, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Treasury Wine Estates Cuts Its Outlook and Scraps Its Buyback
- TWE expected first-half F26 EBITS of A$225-235 million, with the second half higher, excluding any RNDC settlement[1]
- It said category demand had weakened in the US and China, leaving customer inventories above optimal levels while parallel imports disrupted Penfolds pricing in China; it will cut distributor stocks and restrict shipments feeding parallel imports[1]
- The on-market buyback of up to A$200 million, of which A$30.5 million was done, was cancelled; leverage was expected at about 2.5x and above the 1.5-2.0x target for about two years, with the dividend payout ratio and asset sales under review[1]
- New CEO Sam Fischer launched TWE Ascent, targeting A$100 million a year of cost savings from F27[1]
- It followed the 13 October withdrawal of Penfolds' F26-F27 growth guidance; shares fell 11% to A$4.88, and RBC called the guidance about 30% below consensus[2][3]
References 487% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%a.storyblok.com/f/171317/x/57686aa523/investor-update-1h26-outlook.pdfa.storyblok.com· Posted Sep 27, 2026· Starts Dec 17, 2025 ✓· 54% of score
The ASX release is headed '17 December 2025 ASX ANNOUNCEMENT - Investor Update & 1H26 Outlook'.
- [2]80%Shock result for luxury wine brand Penfolds' owner (InDaily / AAP)indailysa.com.au· Published Dec 17, 2025· 18% of score
AAP: shares fell 11% to A$4.88 after the trading halt; RBC's Michael Toner called the new guidance a 'significant miss', about 30% below consensus; plan to cut up to A$100 million a year in costs.[1]
- [3]90%Update on F26 performance expectations (Treasury Wine Estates, 13 October 2025)a.storyblok.com· Published Oct 13, 2025· 14% of score
The earlier step: TWE said it 'no longer believes it is appropriate to retain the Penfolds guidance for low to mid double-digit EBITS growth in F26 and approximately 15% EBITS growth in F27' as China depletions ran weak.[1]
- [4]80%Treasury Wine shares slump to decade-low as headaches mount in China and US (Reuters)finance.yahoo.com· Published Oct 13, 2025· 14% of score
Reuters: on 13 October TWE pulled its 2026 earnings guidance and paused the A$200 million buyback, citing weak Penfolds sales in China and US distribution problems.[1]
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