Ukraine Hits Krasnodar's Ilsky Refinery, Which Its General Staff Says Fuels Russian Forces

More like this

• Energy10/03/2026@EnergyDesk

  Ukrainian Drones Shut Lukoil's Perm Refinery, the Fourth Russian Plant Halted in a Week

  Perm refinery, 84, Industrialny City District, Perm, Perm District, Perm Krai, Volga Federal District, 614055, RussiaLukoil

  

  Starts 09/25/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins79% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 79%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better9 days agoUnited24 Media's^[1][2] report, citing Reuters and Perm governor Dmitry Makhonin, is dated 25 September 2026, the day the plant halted.

  Lukoil's Perm refinery, over 1,500 km from Ukraine and Russia's seventh largest, halted operations on 25 September 2026 after a Ukrainian drone attack set it on fire, Reuters reported, the fourth Russian refinery to stop in under a week.

  0.66

  20
• Energy10/03/2026@EnergyDesk

  Ukrainian Drones Hit Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Halting Russia's Baltic Oil Loadings

  Port of Primorsk, Приморское городское поселение, Vyborgsky District, Leningrad Oblast, Northwestern Federal District, 188910, RussiaTransneft

  

  03/22/2026 - 03/31/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better196 days agoNewsquawk^[6] reports loadings suspended since 22 March; Reuters says Ust-Luga was hit on 22, 25, 27, 29 and 31 March, so the pin runs 22-31 March with an exclusive end of 1 April.

  From 22 March 2026 drone attacks on Russia's two big Baltic oil ports, Primorsk and Ust-Luga, suspended oil and fuel loadings; Reuters satellite analysis later showed Primorsk lost at least 40% of its storage, and the Kremlin called the strikes "terrorist attacks".

  0.65

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb Strikes Russian Bomber Bases

  Olenegorsk Urban Okrug, Murmansk Oblast, Northwestern Federal District, RussiaSecurity Service of Ukraine

  

  Starts 06/01/2025CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.3 years agoAl Jazeera^[1], published 1 June 2025: 'The Russian Defence Ministry said Ukraine had launched drone strikes targeting Russian military airfields across five regions on Sunday' (1 June 2025).

  Ukraine's Security Service launched drones hidden in trucks against Russian strategic bomber bases as far as Siberia; Zelensky said 117 drones were used and reports citing the SBU said 41 bombers were hit, while Russia said several planes caught fire.

  0.64

  10
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Russia Claims the Capture of Pokrovsk After a Siege of Almost Two Years

  Pokrovsk urban hromada, Pokrovskii Raion, Donetsk Oblast, UkraineRussian Armed Forces

  

  Starts 12/01/2025CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins81% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better307 days agoAl Jazeera^[1] (2 December 2025): 'The Kremlin announced the news in a Telegram post on Monday' (1 December), after Gerasimov reported it to Putin 'late on Sunday'.

  The Kremlin said Russian forces had captured Pokrovsk, a logistics hub in Donetsk region under siege for almost two years, and Vovchansk in Kharkiv; a NATO official said Russia held over 95% of Pokrovsk while Ukrainian pockets fought on.

  0.61

  00
• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Vostok Oil Ships First Crude From Its Arctic Megaport

  Bukhta Sever, Taymyr Peninsula, Krasnoyarsk Krai, RussiaRosneft

  

  Starts 09/06/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better28 days agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "Rosneft loaded the first cargo onto the... tanker Valentin Pikul after President Vladimir Putin formally commissioned the project on September 6."

  Rosneft's Vostok Oil project loaded its first tanker at the new Bukhta Sever terminal on Russia's Taymyr Peninsula, opening a huge new Arctic export route despite Western sanctions.

  $157B

  0.58

  10
• Law09/24/2026@LawDesk

  Moscow Court Seizes Wilmar-Linked Stake in Russian Oils Firm Etalon

  Хамовнический районный суд г.Москвы, 21, 7th Rostov Lane, Plyushchikha, 540, Khamovniki District, Moscow, Central Federal District, 119121, RussiaWilmar International

  

  Starts 05/05/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better152 days agoWilmar's announcement: 'on 5 May 2026, a Russian court ordered the seizure by the Russian State of Vadim Moshkovich's interest in Rusagro'.^[1]

  A Moscow court ordered the state seizure of Rusagro founder Vadim Moshkovich's assets, sweeping in a 24% stake in oils-and-fats company JSC Etalon held by LLC Profit, which Wilmar says it half-owns and has an option to take over.

  0.57

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  First Sarmat ICBM Regiment Due on Combat Duty at Uzhur

  Uzhur, Uzhursky Rayon, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Siberian Federal District, RussiaStrategic Rocket Forces

  

  Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins69% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 69%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 88 daysMoscow Times, 12 May 2026: Karakayev said the test 'clears the way for Russia's Strategic Missile Forces to station the first Sarmat-armed regiment at its Uzhur unit in the Krasnoyarsk region by the end of 2026'; the pin takes 31 December 2026.^[1]

  Russia says the first regiment armed with the Sarmat heavy ICBM will go on combat duty at the Uzhur missile division in Krasnoyarsk Territory by the end of 2026, after years of delays and test failures.

  0.55

  00
• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Drone strike breaches Chernobyl's New Safe Confinement

  Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Vyshhorod Raion, Kyiv Oblast, Ukraine

  

  Starts 02/14/2025CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins90% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 90%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.6 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: a Russian "Geran-2" drone struck the New Safe Confinement structure at approximately 1:50 a.m. on February 14, 2025.

  A Russian drone struck Chernobyl's €2BN New Safe Confinement shelter, tearing a hole in the roof and starting a fire that burned for weeks.

  0.55

  10
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Russia Test-Launches the Sarmat Heavy ICBM

  Moscow Kremlin, Faleyevskiy per., Yakimanka District, Moscow, Central Federal District, 115035, RussiaStrategic Rocket Forces

  

  Starts 05/12/2026 8:15AM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins81% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 81%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better145 days agoKremlin^[1], 12 May 2026: Karakayev reported 'Today at 11:15 a.m., the Strategic Missile Forces launched the latest heavy liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat. The launch was successful' (Moscow time, 08:15 UTC).

  Russia's Strategic Missile Forces test-fired the Sarmat heavy liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile, which commander Sergei Karakayev said was successful and would let the first Sarmat regiment go on combat duty at Uzhur by the end of 2026.

  0.55

  10
• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Biden Starts the Largest Drawdown in the Reserve's History

  James Forrestal Building, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, D.C. 20585, United StatesUS Department of Energy

  

  Starts 03/01/2022CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins88% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better4.6 years agoDOE's press release is dated 1 March 2022, the day the President authorised the release; the notice of sale followed on 2 March.^[1]

  Four days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Biden ordered crude out of the SPR as the US share of an IEA release of 60 million barrels. It did not stop there: by that summer 180 million barrels had gone, the biggest emergency sale the reserve had ever made, and it left the stockpile at levels not seen since the 1980s.

  0.54

  10
• Energy10/03/2026@EnergyDesk

  Two Saudi-Loaded Supertankers Are Struck Leaving Hormuz as US-Iran Strikes Resume

  Strait of Hormuz, OmanBahri

  

  Starts 08/31/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better34 days agoWorld Oil^[1] (1 September 2026) places the strikes late on Monday 31 August, which ShipUniverse^[4] times at about 19:52 UTC; some outlets date the report a day later.

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  Late on 31 August 2026 the very large crude carriers Sidr and Senegal Prosperity, each carrying about two million barrels of Saudi crude, were hit by unidentified projectiles minutes apart as they left the Strait of Hormuz; no one claimed the attacks and crews were safe.

  0.54

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Russia and Belarus Hold the Zapad-2025 Strategic Exercise

  Volodarsky District, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Volga Federal District, RussiaRussian Armed Forces

  

  09/12/2025 - 09/16/2025CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.1 years agoKremlin^[1], 16 September 2025: 'The exercise is being held on September 12 through 16 at 41 land and sea training grounds in both countries.'

  Russia and Belarus held their first Zapad joint strategic exercise since the invasion of Ukraine, which Putin said involved 100,000 troops at 41 ranges and included practice with nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile, as Poland shut its border with Belarus.

  0.54

  00