Russia Claims the Capture of Pokrovsk After a Siege of Almost Two Years

More like this

• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Chornobyl NPP Accepts Novarka's New Safe Confinement Into Operation

  Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Chornobyl Exclusion Zone, UkraineNovarka

  

  Starts 11/08/2017CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE8.9 years agoUkraine's Chornobyl NPP states it accepted the New Safe Confinement's Enclosing Perimeter into operation on 8 November 2017 (chnpp.gov.ua^[2]).

  Ukraine's Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant formally accepted the New Safe Confinement's Enclosing Perimeter from builder Novarka, completing the giant arch meant to contain the ruined Reactor 4 for a century. The 36,000-tonne steel structure, the largest movable land-based structure ever built, had been skidded into place over the old sarcophagus in November 2016.

  0.64

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Russia and Belarus Hold the Zapad-2025 Strategic Exercise

  Volodarsky District, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Volga Federal District, RussiaRussian Armed Forces

  

  09/12/2025 - 09/16/2025CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE1.0 years agoKremlin^[1], 16 September 2025: 'The exercise is being held on September 12 through 16 at 41 land and sea training grounds in both countries.'

  Russia and Belarus held their first Zapad joint strategic exercise since the invasion of Ukraine, which Putin said involved 100,000 troops at 41 ranges and included practice with nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile, as Poland shut its border with Belarus.

  0.63

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Russia Tests the Nuclear-Powered Burevestnik Cruise Missile

  Moscow Kremlin, Faleyevskiy per., Yakimanka District, Moscow, Central Federal District, 115035, RussiaRussian Armed Forces

  

  Starts 10/21/2025CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE341 days agoPutin at the Kremlin^[1], 4 November 2025: 'during the testing of Burevestnik on October 21, a NATO reconnaissance vessel was continuously present in the trial zone'; Wikipedia^[2] gives the same date from Gerasimov.

  Russia said it flew its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile for about 15 hours and 14,000 km; Putin later said a NATO reconnaissance ship watched the 21 October test and honoured its designers at the Kremlin.

  0.63

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  China Holds a Victory Day Parade With Putin and Kim Beside Xi

  Tian'anmen Square, 正义路社区, Donghuamen Subdistrict, 首都功能核心区, Dongcheng District, Beijing, 100010, ChinaPeople's Liberation Army

  

  Starts 09/03/2025CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE1.1 years agoXinhua, BEIJING, Sept. 3, 2025: 'China held a massive military parade in central Beijing on Wednesday to mark the 80th anniversary of its victory in World War II'.^[1]

  China staged a military parade through Tiananmen Square to mark 80 years since the end of the Second World War, with Xi Jinping reviewing the troops and Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un beside him on the rostrum.

  0.62

  00
• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Vostok Oil Ships First Crude From Its Arctic Megaport

  Bukhta Sever, Taymyr Peninsula, Krasnoyarsk Krai, RussiaRosneft

  

  Starts 09/06/2026CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE21 days agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "Rosneft loaded the first cargo onto the... tanker Valentin Pikul after President Vladimir Putin formally commissioned the project on September 6."

  Rosneft's Vostok Oil project loaded its first tanker at the new Bukhta Sever terminal on Russia's Taymyr Peninsula, opening a huge new Arctic export route despite Western sanctions.

  $157B

  0.61

  10
• Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

  Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

  

  Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATED64% CONFIDENCEin 95 daysNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

  0.61

  00
• Energy09/22/2026@EnergyDesk

  Bohunice V1 Nuclear Reactors Fully Dismantled

  Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant, Jaslovské Bohunice, SlovakiaJAVYS

  

  Starts 07/29/2022CONFIRMED90% CONFIDENCE4.2 years agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "The two VVER-440 V-230 reactors in Slovakia were decommissioned and disassembled on site".

  Slovakia finished fully dismantling the Soviet-era V1 reactors at Bohunice in July 2022, one of the few nuclear plants taken apart down to the reactor vessels.

  $1.3B

  0.61

  00
• Geopolitics09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  US, Ukraine and Russia Hold First Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi

  Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi Emirate, United Arab EmiratesGovernment of Ukraine

  

  01/23/2026 - 01/24/2026CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE247 days agoAl Jazeera^[1][4], published 24 January 2026: 'Ukraine and Russia ended a second day of United States-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi without an agreement'; its 23 January report covers the opening day.

  Negotiators from the US, Ukraine and Russia met together for the first time since the full-scale invasion, in two days of UAE-hosted talks in Abu Dhabi that ended without agreement as Russia kept demanding the rest of Donetsk.

  0.60

  00
• Law09/24/2026@LawDesk

  Moscow Court Seizes Wilmar-Linked Stake in Russian Oils Firm Etalon

  Хамовнический районный суд г.Москвы, 21, 7th Rostov Lane, Plyushchikha, 540, Khamovniki District, Moscow, Central Federal District, 119121, RussiaWilmar International

  

  Starts 05/05/2026CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE145 days agoWilmar's announcement: 'on 5 May 2026, a Russian court ordered the seizure by the Russian State of Vadim Moshkovich's interest in Rusagro'.^[1]

  A Moscow court ordered the state seizure of Rusagro founder Vadim Moshkovich's assets, sweeping in a 24% stake in oils-and-fats company JSC Etalon held by LLC Profit, which Wilmar says it half-owns and has an option to take over.

  0.60

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  First Sarmat ICBM Regiment Due on Combat Duty at Uzhur

  Uzhur, Uzhursky Rayon, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Siberian Federal District, RussiaStrategic Rocket Forces

  

  Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 95 daysMoscow Times, 12 May 2026: Karakayev said the test 'clears the way for Russia's Strategic Missile Forces to station the first Sarmat-armed regiment at its Uzhur unit in the Krasnoyarsk region by the end of 2026'; the pin takes 31 December 2026.^[1]

  Russia says the first regiment armed with the Sarmat heavy ICBM will go on combat duty at the Uzhur missile division in Krasnoyarsk Territory by the end of 2026, after years of delays and test failures.

  0.60

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  Russia Test-Launches the Sarmat Heavy ICBM

  Moscow Kremlin, Faleyevskiy per., Yakimanka District, Moscow, Central Federal District, 115035, RussiaStrategic Rocket Forces

  

  Starts 05/12/2026 8:15AMCONFIRMED81% CONFIDENCE138 days agoKremlin^[1], 12 May 2026: Karakayev reported 'Today at 11:15 a.m., the Strategic Missile Forces launched the latest heavy liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile, the Sarmat. The launch was successful' (Moscow time, 08:15 UTC).

  Russia's Strategic Missile Forces test-fired the Sarmat heavy liquid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile, which commander Sergei Karakayev said was successful and would let the first Sarmat regiment go on combat duty at Uzhur by the end of 2026.

  0.60

  00
• Defense09/27/2026@DefenseDesk

  RSF Takes El Fasher, the Sudanese Army's Last Darfur Stronghold

  Al-Fashir, Al Fasher - الفاشر, North Darfur, SudanRapid Support Forces

  

  Starts 10/26/2025CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE336 days agoAl Jazeera^[1] (28 October 2025): Burhan 'announced the withdrawal of his forces ... late on Monday, a day after the paramilitary RSF seized control of the main Sudanese army base in el-Fasher' (Sunday 26 October 2025); Wikipedia^[2] gives 26 October for the base's fall.

  After a siege of more than a year and a half, the Rapid Support Forces seized the Sudanese army's 6th Infantry Division base in El Fasher, and army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced a withdrawal from the city as the UN reported summary executions of fleeing civilians.

  0.59

  00