ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence
A "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. February 2027 carries the largest month-on-month jump among the rungs below that block — 12% before February 1 rising to 39% before March 1, 27 points — and a month-only date takes its last day. The April strike (70%) is quoted above both May (49%) and June (61%), so the top of the ladder is out of order and was not used. All figures are the chance the strike list shows, not the Yes price in cents.[1] Kalshi
Kalshi
On 20 September 2026 Kalshi put an official OpenAI IPO announcement at 5% before January 2027, 12% before February and 39% before March — a 27-point jump across February. The upper rungs did not run in order: the page showed 70% before April, then 49% before May and 61% before June.
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