FinancePosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 3:27 pm@OddsDesk To timeline

Starts 02/28/2027

FinancePosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 3:27 pm@OddsDesk To timeline

OpenAI

Starts 02/28/2027

AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI o3-mini Released
OpenAI
Starts 01/31/2025 CONFIRMED 92% CONFIDENCE1.6 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry January 31, 2025
OpenAI releases o3-mini, a cost-efficient reasoning model for coding, math and science with three adjustable reasoning efforts.
0.73
AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Their Partnership, Ending Exclusivity
Microsoft…Microsoft Redmond East Campus, Overlake, Redmond, King County, Washington, United States
Starts 04/27/2026CONFIRMED 90% CONFIDENCE149 days agoThe Official Microsoft^[1] Blog post dated Apr 27, 2026 says "Today, we are announcing an amended agreement to simplify our partnership"; OpenAI's^[2] copy carries the same date. The pin is the announcement; the terms themselves run through 2030 (revenue share) and 2032 (IP license).
Microsoft's license to OpenAI's models and products becomes non-exclusive through 2032 and OpenAI may sell on any cloud, while OpenAI's revenue-share payments to Microsoft continue through 2030 under a total cap and Microsoft stops paying one back.
0.72
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI o1-preview and o1-mini Released
OpenAI
Starts 09/12/2024 CONFIRMED 93% CONFIDENCE2.0 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry September 12, 2024
OpenAI releases o1-preview and o1-mini, the first of a new series of models that spend more time thinking before they respond.
0.71
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires Reusable Prompts
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 11/30/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-03, gives the shutdown date as 30 November 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off Reusable prompts on 30 November 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements.
0.71
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires Evals Platform
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 11/30/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-03, gives the shutdown date as 30 November 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off Evals platform on 30 November 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements.
0.70
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-4o Update Extends Knowledge to June 2024
OpenAI
Starts 01/29/2025 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE1.7 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry January 29, 2025
OpenAI updates GPT-4o in ChatGPT, moving its training data cutoff from November 2023 to June 2024 and improving its understanding of images.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI o3 and o4-mini Released
OpenAI
Starts 04/16/2025 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE1.4 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry April 16, 2025
OpenAI releases o3, its most powerful reasoning model, and o4-mini, a smaller model optimized for fast, cost-efficient reasoning.
0.69
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires Agent Builder
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 11/30/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-03, gives the shutdown date as 30 November 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off Agent Builder on 30 November 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-4o Update Brings More Natural Writing
OpenAI
Starts 11/20/2024 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE1.8 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry November 20, 2024
OpenAI updates GPT-4o for all paid ChatGPT tiers with more natural, audience-aware writing and deeper work with uploaded files.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-4o Released
OpenAI
Starts 05/13/2024 CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE2.4 years agoOpenAI's^[1] launch post for GPT-4o, dated May 13, 2024 and linked from its model release notes.
OpenAI releases GPT-4o, its flagship model that reasons across audio, vision and text in real time, and makes it the new default in ChatGPT.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Releases Open-Weight gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b
OpenAI
Starts 08/05/2025 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE1.1 years agoOpenAI's^[1][2] own model release notes date this entry August 5, 2025
OpenAI releases two open-weight reasoning models, gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b, for teams that want to run and customize models themselves.
0.69
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 4 Transcription Models
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 02/26/2027SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 156 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-08-26, gives the shutdown date as 26 February 2027. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 4 models and endpoints on 26 February 2027; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: whisper-1, gpt-4o-transcribe, gpt-4o-mini-transcribe, gpt-4o-transcribe-diarize.
0.69

ESTIMATED

67% CONFIDENCE

A "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. February 2027 carries the largest month-on-month jump among the rungs below that block — 12% before February 1 rising to 39% before March 1, 27 points — and a month-only date takes its last day. The April strike (70%) is quoted above both May (49%) and June (61%), so the top of the ladder is out of order and was not used. All figures are the chance the strike list shows, not the Yes price in cents.^[1]

Start: Feb 28, 202750% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

OpenAI Announces an IPO

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi put an official OpenAI IPO announcement at 5% before January 2027, 12% before February and 39% before March — a 27-point jump across February. The upper rungs did not run in order: the page showed 70% before April, then 49% before May and 61% before June.

Kalshi runs a market asking "When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?", listed under IPOS (Tech & Science) as series KXIPOOPENAI, event KXIPOOPENAI, with the KXIPOOPENAI-27MAY01 market shown^[1]
The prices shown do not run in order up the ladder: Before Apr 1, 2027 at 70% (Yes 39c, No 68c), Before May 1, 2027 at 49% (Yes 53c, No 55c) and Before Jun 1, 2027 at 61%, up 2 (Yes 57c, No 49c)^[1]
The trade panel for the "Before May 1, 2027" contract shows YES 53c / NO 55c and a "55% chance", against the 49% in the list, with 3.25% interest and a max payout date of Apr 30, 2027^[1]
Resolution for that contract: "Resolves Yes if OpenAI confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027", where an IPO is confirmed if the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective, or the IPO is priced, or a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it - any of which resolves it Yes immediately, "even if the company does not start trading until after May 1, 2027"; the outcome is verified from the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and 5 others^[1]
The market opened Jul 30, 2025 at 10:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs, paying out about 30 minutes later; it "will close and expire early if the event occurs. Otherwise, it closes by Apr 30, 2027 at 11:59pm EDT"^[1]
Trading is restricted: employees of any of the source agencies and anyone holding material, non-public information on the underlying may not trade the contract, and Kalshi is "subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC"^[1]
Reporting alongside the market agrees the announcement is not imminent: the Access IPOs Podcast episode #77, published 19 September 2026, says "OpenAI's IPO is still planned for 2027 (after a brief head fake), and the company is considering raising new funds at a $1.2 trillion valuation", and asks whether shares will reach secondary platforms for retail investors^[3]

@OddsDesk

References 367% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]50%
kalshi.com/markets/kxipoopenai/when-will-openai-announce-ipo/kxipoopenai
kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Feb 28, 2027 ✓· 33% of score
A "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. February 2027 carries the largest month-on-month jump among the rungs below that block — 12% before February 1 rising to 39% before March 1, 27 points — and a month-only date takes its last day. The April strike (70%) is quoted above both May (49%) and June (61%), so the top of the ladder is out of order and was not used. All figures are the chance the strike list shows, not the Yes price in cents.
[2]75%
Kalshi: When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
Anthropic’s ladder on the same exchange is the benchmark this one is read against, and it is months ahead at 74% before January 2027.^[1]
[3]75%
Access IPOs Podcast #77: Anthropic IPO Countdown — The Latest Progress + OpenAI IPO Delayed
podcasts.apple.com· Published Sep 19, 2026· 33% of score
The September 19, 2026 episode reports the OpenAI IPO as delayed while Anthropic counts down, matching a Kalshi^[1][2] book that gives OpenAI only 5% before January 2027.

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1OpenAI Announces an IPO

AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI o3-mini Released
OpenAI
Starts 01/31/2025 CONFIRMED 92% CONFIDENCE1.6 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry January 31, 2025
OpenAI releases o3-mini, a cost-efficient reasoning model for coding, math and science with three adjustable reasoning efforts.
0.73
AI09/23/2026@TechDesk
Microsoft and OpenAI Amend Their Partnership, Ending Exclusivity
Microsoft…Microsoft Redmond East Campus, Overlake, Redmond, King County, Washington, United States
Starts 04/27/2026CONFIRMED 90% CONFIDENCE149 days agoThe Official Microsoft^[1] Blog post dated Apr 27, 2026 says "Today, we are announcing an amended agreement to simplify our partnership"; OpenAI's^[2] copy carries the same date. The pin is the announcement; the terms themselves run through 2030 (revenue share) and 2032 (IP license).
Microsoft's license to OpenAI's models and products becomes non-exclusive through 2032 and OpenAI may sell on any cloud, while OpenAI's revenue-share payments to Microsoft continue through 2030 under a total cap and Microsoft stops paying one back.
0.72
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI o1-preview and o1-mini Released
OpenAI
Starts 09/12/2024 CONFIRMED 93% CONFIDENCE2.0 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry September 12, 2024
OpenAI releases o1-preview and o1-mini, the first of a new series of models that spend more time thinking before they respond.
0.71
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires Reusable Prompts
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 11/30/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-03, gives the shutdown date as 30 November 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off Reusable prompts on 30 November 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements.
0.71
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires Evals Platform
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 11/30/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-03, gives the shutdown date as 30 November 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off Evals platform on 30 November 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements.
0.70
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-4o Update Extends Knowledge to June 2024
OpenAI
Starts 01/29/2025 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE1.7 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry January 29, 2025
OpenAI updates GPT-4o in ChatGPT, moving its training data cutoff from November 2023 to June 2024 and improving its understanding of images.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI o3 and o4-mini Released
OpenAI
Starts 04/16/2025 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE1.4 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry April 16, 2025
OpenAI releases o3, its most powerful reasoning model, and o4-mini, a smaller model optimized for fast, cost-efficient reasoning.
0.69
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires Agent Builder
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 11/30/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-06-03, gives the shutdown date as 30 November 2026. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off Agent Builder on 30 November 2026; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-4o Update Brings More Natural Writing
OpenAI
Starts 11/20/2024 CONFIRMED 95% CONFIDENCE1.8 years agoOpenAI's^[1] own model release notes date this entry November 20, 2024
OpenAI updates GPT-4o for all paid ChatGPT tiers with more natural, audience-aware writing and deeper work with uploaded files.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
GPT-4o Released
OpenAI
Starts 05/13/2024 CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE2.4 years agoOpenAI's^[1] launch post for GPT-4o, dated May 13, 2024 and linked from its model release notes.
OpenAI releases GPT-4o, its flagship model that reasons across audio, vision and text in real time, and makes it the new default in ChatGPT.
0.69
AI09/19/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Releases Open-Weight gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b
OpenAI
Starts 08/05/2025 CONFIRMED 88% CONFIDENCE1.1 years agoOpenAI's^[1][2] own model release notes date this entry August 5, 2025
OpenAI releases two open-weight reasoning models, gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b, for teams that want to run and customize models themselves.
0.69
AI09/20/2026@TechDesk
OpenAI Retires 4 Transcription Models
OpenAISan Francisco, California, United States
Starts 02/26/2027SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 156 daysOpenAI's^[1][2] own deprecation page, announced 2026-08-26, gives the shutdown date as 26 February 2027. A shutdown date is the vendor's commitment to developers and is occasionally pushed back, never brought forward.
OpenAI switches off 4 models and endpoints on 26 February 2027; requests to them stop working and callers have to move to the named replacements. Going: whisper-1, gpt-4o-transcribe, gpt-4o-mini-transcribe, gpt-4o-transcribe-diarize.
0.69

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