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02/15/2024

-2.8 years

AI10/24/2026@AIDesk

Sora Previewed

OpenAI headquarters, 1455 3rd Street, San Francisco, California, USA

OpenAI

Starts 02/15/2024CONFIRMED83% CONFIDENCE

The Verge^[1] (15 Feb 2024, 18:50 UTC), Wired^[2] (15 Feb), NBC News^[4] (15 Feb) and MIT Technology Review^[5] all report OpenAI unveiling Sora on Thursday 15 February 2024; Wikipedia^[6] gives the same date.

OpenAI unveils Sora, a text-to-video model that makes photorealistic 1080p clips up to a minute long, but shows it only through demo videos and gives access to red-teamers and a few artists.

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05/31/2024

-2.5 years

四月廿四 National Macaroon Day Eating macaroons

Infrastructure10/21/2026@DataCenterDesk

OpenAI Stargate Abilene AI Data Center Buildout

OpenAI Stargate Abilene, USA

05/31/2024 - 11/29/2026ESTIMATED65% CONFIDENCE

Start is Epoch's^[1][3][7] satellite-observed land clearing; Crusoe says construction began June 2024. End is Epoch's estimated November 2026 operation of Buildings 7-8; no developer date is published.

OpenAI's Stargate campus in Abilene, Texas, is Crusoe's eight-building, roughly 4 million sq ft, 1.2 GW development leased to Oracle. Construction began in 2024; Oracle reported six of eight buildings delivered on September 10, 2026, with the last two still being fitted out. A $15 billion joint venture funds the campus. Epoch AI estimates 618 MW of IT power now and 824 MW when complete.

$15B

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12/09/2024

-1.9 years

十一月初九 National Pastry Day Eating pastries

AI10/24/2026@AIDesk

Sora Turbo Released

OpenAI headquarters, 1455 3rd Street, San Francisco, California, USA

OpenAI

Starts 12/09/2024CONFIRMED77% CONFIDENCE

TechRadar^[3] (published 9 Dec 2024) says Sora 'finally launched on Monday' during OpenAI's third 12 Days announcement; MIT Technology Review's^[1] guide, Gigazine^[2] and Wikipedia^[6] all date the launch to 9 December 2024.

OpenAI releases Sora Turbo at sora.com to ChatGPT Plus and Pro subscribers on day 3 of its 12 Days of OpenAI, with 5-second 720p clips on Plus and 20-second 1080p clips on Pro, but not in the UK, Switzerland or the EEA.

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09/30/2025

-1.1 years

八月初九 India's Navratri Garba and dandiya Fasting Durga worship Germany's Oktoberfest Beer tents Pretzels Dirndl and lederhosen National Hot Mulled Cider Day Drinking mulled cider

AI10/24/2026@AIDesk

Sora 2 and Sora App Released

OpenAI headquarters, 1455 3rd Street, San Francisco, California, USA

OpenAI

Starts 09/30/2025CONFIRMED81% CONFIDENCE

TechCrunch^[1] (30 Sep 2025, 18:28 UTC), Tom's Guide (30 Sep) and The Verge^[2] (1 Oct) report the announcement on Tuesday 30 September 2025; Wikipedia^[6] says Sora 2 was unveiled with the iOS app that day. Some outlets describe the app as reaching users the next day.

OpenAI launches Sora 2, its first video model with synchronized dialogue and sound, with an invite-only TikTok-style Sora iOS app where users make 10-second clips and insert themselves through 'cameos'.

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10/06/2025

-1.1 years

八月十五 Mid-Autumn Festival Mooncakes Lantern lighting Moon gazing Pomelo China's National Day Golden Week Flag raising Family trips Fireworks Korea's Chuseok Songpyeon Ancestral rites Hanbok National Noodle Day Eating noodles

AI10/24/2026@AIDesk

Sora 2 and Sora 2 Pro Released in the API

OpenAI headquarters, 1455 3rd Street, San Francisco, California, USA

OpenAI

Sora 2 and Sora 2 Pro Released in the API

Starts 10/06/2025CONFIRMED82% CONFIDENCE

OpenAI's^[3][4][6] API changelog lists an Oct 6 entry 'Launched v1/videos ... with our latest Sora 2 and Sora 2 Pro models' at DevDay, and the sora-2-pro snapshot is named sora-2-pro-2025-10-06; TechCrunch^[1] ran the story the same day.

At DevDay on 6 October 2025 OpenAI opens its Videos API to developers with sora-2 and sora-2-pro, per-second pricing from $0.10, and audio-synced video output.

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12/01/2025

-349 days

十月十二 Eat a Red Apple Day Eating an apple

Infrastructure10/21/2026@DataCenterDesk

OpenAI Stargate Wisconsin AI Data Center Buildout

OpenAI Stargate Wisconsin, USA

Starts 12/01/2025ESTIMATED65% CONFIDENCE

Groundbreaking was reported 17 Dec 2025 (month precision used); Vantage expects opening in 2028 (year only) so endDate is null. Epoch's^[1][2] satellite record shows land clearing from 2 Jan 2026.

Vantage Data Centers' Lighthouse campus in Port Washington, Wisconsin, is the Stargate site for Oracle and OpenAI: four data center buildings on 672 acres with about 902 MW of critical IT load. The Common Council approved the development agreement in August 2025, groundbreaking followed in December 2025 and satellite imagery shows Buildings 1 and 2 roughly halfway roofed by July 2026. Vantage targets a 2028 opening, but a grid interconnection that needs a new Wisconsin PSC approval may push full load into mid-2028 or later.

$15B

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03/12/2026

-248 days

正月廿四 Ramadan Iftar Suhoor Taraweeh prayers Dates National Baked Scallops Day Eating baked scallops

AI10/24/2026@AIDesk

Sora API Adds 20-Second Clips, 1080p and Characters

OpenAI headquarters, 1455 3rd Street, San Francisco, California, USA

OpenAI

Sora API Adds 20-Second Clips, 1080p and Characters

Starts 03/12/2026CONFIRMED84% CONFIDENCE

The OpenAI^[2][4][5] Developers post on X is stamped 12 March 2026 and OpenAI's API changelog lists the same Mar 12 entry; AIBase^[3] reported it on 13 March.

OpenAI expands the Sora 2 Videos API on 12 March 2026 with reusable character references, clips up to 20 seconds, 1080p output for sora-2-pro, video extensions and Batch support, twelve days before announcing Sora's shutdown.

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03/31/2026

-229 days

二月十三 National Clams on the Half Shell Day Eating clams on half shell

AI10/05/2026@RecordDesk

OpenAI Closes US$122 Billion Round at US$852 Billion Valuation

OpenAI, 575, Florida Street, Mission, San Francisco, California, 94110, United States

OpenAI

Starts 03/31/2026CONFIRMED83% CONFIDENCE

TechCrunch^[1][5] (31 March 2026, 'has closed a deal to raise $122 billion') and PYMNTS^[4] (31 March, 'Tuesday (March 31) press release') agree; CNBC^[3] later called it OpenAI's record-breaking round. Wikipedia^[2] cites an OpenAI post dated 24 March and says 'April', so the exact date of OpenAI's own post is less clear; 31 March is the closing news both press reports give.

OpenAI announced on 31 March 2026 that it had closed US$122 billion in committed capital at an US$852 billion post-money valuation, the largest private technology funding round on record. It grew from the US$110 billion first close announced on 27 February.

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08/01/2026

-106 days

六月十九 National Raspberry Cream Pie Day Eating raspberry cream pie

Infrastructure10/21/2026@DataCenterDesk

OpenAI Stargate Lordstown AI Data Center Buildout

OpenAI Stargate Lordstown, USA

Starts 08/01/2026ESTIMATED65% CONFIDENCE

The saved date is an estimated tracking or capacity-trajectory marker, not a verified exact opening day. Construction status follows the cited dated physical scope; no completion is inferred from elapsed targets.^[1]

OpenAI Stargate Lordstown: dated physical works remain within the campus buildout. Published capacity for this specific buildout has not been verified.

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Infrastructure10/21/2026@DataCenterDesk

OpenAI Stargate Michigan AI Data Center Buildout

OpenAI Stargate Michigan, USA

Starts 08/01/2026ESTIMATED65% CONFIDENCE

OpenAI Stargate Michigan: dated physical works remain within the campus buildout. Published capacity for this specific buildout has not been verified.

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Today National Spicy Hermit Cookie Day Eating hermit cookies

02/28/2027

105 days

正月廿二 Ramadan Iftar Suhoor Taraweeh prayers Dates National Chocolate Soufflé Day Eating chocolate soufflé

Finance09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Predicted

OpenAI Announces an IPO

OpenAI, 1455 3rd St, San Francisco, CA

OpenAI

Starts 02/28/2027ESTIMATED65% CONFIDENCE

A "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. February 2027 carries the largest month-on-month jump among the rungs below that block — 12% before February 1 rising to 39% before March 1, 27 points — and a month-only date takes its last day. The April strike (70%) is quoted above both May (49%) and June (61%), so the top of the ladder is out of order and was not used. All figures are the chance the strike list shows, not the Yes price in cents.^[1]

Kalshi

On 20 September 2026 Kalshi put an official OpenAI IPO announcement at 5% before January 2027, 12% before February and 39% before March — a 27-point jump across February. The upper rungs did not run in order: the page showed 70% before April, then 49% before May and 61% before June.

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03/31/2027

136 days

二月廿四 National Clams on the Half Shell Day Eating clams on half shell

Finance10/27/2026@OddsDesk

Predicted

OpenAI Shares Begin Trading in Its IPO

OpenAI, 1455 3rd St, San Francisco, CA

OpenAI

Starts 03/31/2027ESTIMATED65% CONFIDENCE

Estimated: this is a listing-date market, which is separate from the earlier IPO announcement. Polymarket^[1][2] resolves Yes only once shares are listed and open for trading, so no strike reaches 50%, so the date is the start of the largest step, March 31, 2027 (20%) to June 30, 2027 (40%). Prices read on 27 October 2026 from the exchange's public API; event volume US$3,102,693 is as reported by Polymarket.

Polymarket

On 27 October 2026 Polymarket put OpenAI shares listed and open for trading by March 31, 2027 at 20%, on US$3,102,693 of event volume. No strike reaches even odds yet, so the date marks the biggest jump in the ladder, not a confident call.

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