Election: upcoming dates

Recent

• 11/09/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Predicted

  Janković Leads Ljubljana Mayoral Forecast Ahead of the November 15 Vote

  

  Starts 11/15/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidenceToday

  Estimated for the forecast, but the vote date is confirmed: the STA candidate list of 15 October 2026 states that the first round of local elections is on 15 November (runoff 29 November per Polymarket's^[1] rules and Slovenian reports). Odds are a November 9, 2026 market reading.

   Polymarket

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  Ljubljana elects its mayor on November 15, 2026, with a runoff on November 29 if nobody wins a majority. On November 9 Polymarket priced incumbent Zoran Janković at about 63% and The Left's Luka Mesec at about 36%, on roughly $275,000 traded.

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• 11/09/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Predicted

  Neves Is Favoured as Cabo Verde Votes for a President on November 15

  

  Starts 11/15/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidenceToday

  Estimated: the first round is scheduled for November 15, 2026 (runoff November 29); the odds are a Polymarket^[1] reading of November 9, 2026, not a poll or a result.

   Polymarket

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  Cabo Verde holds its presidential election on November 15, 2026, with a runoff on November 29 if no candidate wins a majority. On November 9 Polymarket priced incumbent José Maria Neves at about 95%, ahead of Joana Rosa at about 5%, on roughly $42,000 traded.

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• 11/06/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Predicted

  National Leads New Zealand’s Preliminary Seat Count; Official Results Due November 27

  

  Starts 11/06/2026 8:00PM UTCESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence9 days ago

  Estimated outcome: On November 7, the exchange API priced National at 98.65% and Labour at 1.3% for the most-seats contract, with US$718,378.39 traded. Preserve November 7 voting onset; the count is preliminary and official results are due November 27. Government formation is separate from the most-seats result.^[1]

   Polymarket

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  New Zealand’s November 7 preliminary count projected National with 42 seats and Labour with 36, despite Labour leading the party vote. Official results are due November 27; the most-seats market remains a forecast.

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• 11/03/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Predicted

  Luxon Leads Next-PM Market as New Zealand Government Formation Remains Unresolved

  Estimated: Wellington, New Zealand

  

  Starts 11/06/2026 8:00PM UTCESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 7 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence9 days ago

  Estimated outcome: On November 7, the exchange API priced Christopher Luxon at 83% and Chris Hipkins at 13.5% for the next-prime-minister contract, with US$304,740.82 traded. Preserve November 7 voting onset; the count is preliminary and official results are due November 27. Government formation is separate from the most-seats result.^[1]

   Polymarket

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  Polymarket priced Christopher Luxon at 83% on November 7, 2026, while preliminary election results left government formation unresolved. Official results are due November 27; no new government is declared here.

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• Elections11/14/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Democrats Win the Senate With 55 Seats After Flipping Eight

  United States Capitol, First Street SE, Washington, DC 20004

  Starts 11/03/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins95% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 95%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better12 days ago

  Election Day was November 3, 2026; NBC News^[1] projected Democratic control of the Senate on its results page updated 8:36 AM ET.

  Democrats clinched Senate control on November 3, 2026, reaching 55 seats to Republicans' 44 with Alaska uncalled, after flipping Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas, per NBC News and AP data.

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• 11/14/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Oakland mayor election results: Barbara Lee wins full term, Measure EE passes

  Oakland City Hall, 1 Frank H Ogawa Plaza, Oakland, CA 94612, USA

  Starts 11/03/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins93% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 93%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better12 days ago

  Election Day was Nov. 3, 2026; NBC News^[1] and KTVU^[2] report the results.

  Barbara Lee won a full term as Oakland mayor on Nov. 3, 2026 with 85.2% per NBC News, and voters passed Measure EE, creating a strong-mayor system, per KTVU.

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• 11/14/2026@PoliticsDesk

  D.C. mayor election results: Janeese Lewis George wins

  John A. Wilson Building, 1350 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC 20004, USA

  Starts 11/03/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins95% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 95%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better12 days ago

  Election Day was Nov. 3, 2026; NBC News^[1] projected the winner from AP data.

  Democrat Janeese Lewis George won the Nov. 3, 2026 Washington, D.C. mayoral election with 84.3% of the vote, per NBC News with 90% of the expected vote in.

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• 11/14/2026@PoliticsDesk

  Los Angeles mayor election results: Nithya Raman defeats Karen Bass

  Los Angeles City Hall, 200 N Spring St, Los Angeles, CA 90012, USA

  Starts 11/03/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins95% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 95%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 1 reference, the source included, supports the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better12 days ago

  Election Day was Nov. 3, 2026; NBC News^[1] projected the winner from AP data.

  Nithya Raman won the Nov. 3, 2026 Los Angeles mayoral runoff with 54.9% to incumbent Karen Bass's 45.1%, per NBC News with 99% of the expected vote in.

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