Skip to content

Search

Polymarket: upcoming dates · Chronopin

Chronopin
/
Tags
/
Polymarket

Polymarket: upcoming dates

Upcoming dates: 29 · All pins: 73

Next: Latvia Elects Its 15th Saeima, With Kulbergs' United List Far Ahead, October 3, 2026.

All Polymarket pins in search

Upcoming

Elections10/01/2026@PoliticsDesk
Latvia Elects Its 15th Saeima, With Kulbergs' United List Far Ahead
Saeima, 11, Jēkaba street, Old Riga, Latgales apkaime, Riga, LV-1050, LatviaCentral Election Commission of Latvia
Starts 10/03/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins73% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 1 dayThe Saeima election falls on the first Saturday of October, 3 October 2026, as the election article and the diaspora voting guides state.^[1]
Polymarket
Latvians elect the 100-seat Saeima on 3 October 2026. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs' United List leads the September polls at 22.7-23.8%, about ten points clear of the next party.

Related tags

Prediction Market111
Kalshi93
Economy147
Federal Reserve74
FOMC65
Interest Rates65
Geopolitics111
Monetary Policy64
Elections64
Music

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Brazil Votes in the First Round of Its Presidential Election

Palacio do Planalto, Praca dos Tres Poderes, Brasilia, Brazil

Brazil Votes in the First Round of Its Presidential Election

Starts 10/04/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins73% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 2 daysPolymarket's^[1][2] rules open with "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026", which is the first Sunday of October, the date Brazilian law sets.

Polymarket

Polymarket

Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's winner market, which includes any second round, had Flavio Bolsonaro at 58% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 42%; a runoff, if no one clears 50%, falls on October 25.

0

Elections10/01/2026@PoliticsDesk

Bosnia and Herzegovina Elects a Three-Member Presidency, the First Vote Since Dodik's Removal

Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 16, Maršala Tita, Džidžikovac, Sarajevo, Mjesna zajednica Trg oslobođenja-Centar, Centar Municipality, City of Sarajevo, Sarajevo Canton, Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 71000, Bosnia and HerzegovinaCentral Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina Elects a Three-Member Presidency, the First Vote Since Dodik's Removal

Starts 10/04/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 2 daysBosnia's Central Election Commission called the general election for 4 October 2026; the election article and the campaign coverage give the same day.^[1]

Polymarket

Bosnians elect the three-member Presidency, the state parliament, both entities' governments and the cantonal assemblies on 4 October 2026, the first general election since Milorad Dodik was removed from office in 2025.

0

Elections10/01/2026@PoliticsDesk

Lima Elects a Mayor, With López Aliaga Leading From the Council List

Palacio Municipal de Lima, 300, Union Street, Urbanización Cercado de Lima, Lima, Province of Lima, Lima Metropolitan Area, Lima, 15001, PeruMunicipality of Lima

Lima Elects a Mayor, With López Aliaga Leading From the Council List

Starts 10/04/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins75% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 75%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 2 daysPeru's 2026 regional and municipal elections are set for 4 October 2026, the date the Lima election article and the campaign coverage give.^[1]

Polymarket

Lima votes for its metropolitan mayor and 39 councillors on 4 October 2026, in Peru's regional and municipal elections. Rafael López Aliaga, Popular Renewal's first council candidate and de facto standard-bearer, leads the late polls at about 30%.

0

Elections10/01/2026@PoliticsDesk

Quebec Votes, With the Parti Québécois Favoured to Return on a Sovereignty Promise

Hôtel du Parlement, 1045, Rue des Parlementaires, Colline Parlementaire, Vieux-Québec, Vieux-Québec–Cap-Blanc–Colline-Parlementaire, La Cité-Limoilou, Quebec, Urban agglomeration of Québec, Capitale-Nationale, Quebec, G1R 5E6, Canada

Élections Québec

Quebec Votes, With the Parti Québécois Favoured to Return on a Sovereignty Promise

Starts 10/05/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 3 daysQuebec's fixed-date election law sets the general election for the first Monday of October in the fourth year, 5 October 2026; the election article and the campaign coverage give the same day.^[1]

Polymarket

Quebecers elect all 127 members of the National Assembly on 5 October 2026. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon's Parti Québécois leads every late poll at about 30% and has promised a referendum on sovereignty.

1

Music10/01/2026@MusicDesk

Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' Is Set to Debut at No. 1 and End Ella Langley's 23-Week Run

1755, Broadway, Manhattan Community Board 5, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10019, United States

Republic Records

Taylor Swift's 'Patient Zero' Is Set to Debut at No. 1 and End Ella Langley's 23-Week Run

Starts 10/05/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins68% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 68%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 3 daysEstimated: the chart is dated 10 October 2026 and Billboard^[1] posts the Hot 100's top 10 on the Monday before the chart date, 5 October; the No. 1 itself is a projection (Kalshi^[2][4] 98%, ratings tracking), not yet official.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Billboard's Hot 100 dated 10 October 2026, revealed on 5 October, is expected to open with 'Patient Zero' at No. 1. Kalshi prices the debut at 98%; it would be Swift's 16th No. 1 and tie Drake's record of ten No. 1 debuts.

1

Elections10/01/2026@PoliticsDesk

Brazil Holds a Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro Presidential Runoff

Palácio do Planalto, N1 Leste, Brasília, Plano Piloto, Federal District, Central-West Region, 70000-000, Brazil

Superior Electoral Court

Brazil Holds a Lula vs Flávio Bolsonaro Presidential Runoff

Starts 10/25/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins76% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 76%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 23 daysBrazil's electoral calendar sets the second round for 25 October 2026, three weeks after the 4 October first round; it is held if no candidate takes over half the valid votes, which Polymarket^[2][3] put at 2.7% on 1 October.

Polymarket

Polymarket

If no one wins half the valid votes on 4 October, Brazil's top two presidential candidates meet in a runoff on 25 October 2026. Every late poll has Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro tied in that second round.

0

Sports09/20/2026@OddsDesk

The 2026 Ballon d'Or Is Awarded in London

London Palladium, 8 Argyll Street, London W1F 7TF, United Kingdom

The 2026 Ballon d'Or Is Awarded in London

Starts 10/26/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins71% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 71%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 24 daysYahoo^[3] Sports and Athlon both give Monday 26 October 2026 for the ceremony, and Polymarket's^[2] Ballon d'Or market ends 26 October, so the date is firm even though organisers had not formally confirmed the venue.

Kalshi

Polymarket

For the first time the Ballon d'Or leaves Paris: the 2026 ceremony is on Monday 26 October 2026 in London, marking 70 years since the first award. On 20 September 2026 Harry Kane was a clear favourite on both exchanges at 55-56%, with Lamine Yamal at 22% and Kylian Mbappé at 8%.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Israelis Elect the Next Knesset

Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem

Israelis Elect the Next Knesset

Starts 10/27/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 25 daysPolymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.

Polymarket

Kalshi

Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.

0

Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?

Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?

Starts 10/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins68% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 68%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 29 daysOctober 31 is the latest date on Polymarket's^[1] ceasefire ladder, where traders price it at 46%; the ceasefire could end sooner.

Polymarket

Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.

0

AI09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model

Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA

Google Releases Its Next Gemini Pro Model

Starts 10/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins67% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 67%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 29 daysGoogle has announced nothing. The market’s heaviest window is October 16–31, 2026, worth 42.5 points against 29 for the first half of October and 13 for all of September, so the pin takes the last day of that window. The day-by-day companion book leaves 88% on "no release by September 30".^[1]

Polymarket

Polymarket

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket’s ladder for Google’s next Gemini Pro release climbed from 13% by September 30 to 42% by October 15 and 84.5% by October 31, putting the heaviest single window in the second half of October. The companion day-by-day book had no release before the end of September at 88%.

0

Policy09/16/2026@ThePinGang

2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Decide Control of Congress

United States Capitol, Washington, DC

2026 U.S. Midterm Elections Decide Control of Congress

Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins80% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 80%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 32 daysElection Day for federal midterms is fixed by federal law as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November; the source^[1] article states the 2026 midterms fall on Nov. 3, 2026.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Voters nationwide decide control of the U.S. House and Senate in the first midterm election of Donald Trump's second term. Prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, along with the generic congressional ballot, have swung toward Democrats over the course of 2026, a reversal from the start of the cycle, as Trump's approval rating slid and voters cited cost-of-living pressures as a top concern.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

California Elects Its Next Governor

California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California

California Elects Its Next Governor

Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins70% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 70%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 32 daysPolymarket's^[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

Polymarket

Polymarket

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Texas Picks a U.S. Senator in the 2026 Midterms

Texas State Capitol, 1100 Congress Avenue, Austin, Texas

Texas Picks a U.S. Senator in the 2026 Midterms

Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 32 daysPolymarket^[1][2] resolves on "the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election"; federal law sets Election Day on November 3, 2026, and the market's own end date is that day.

Polymarket

Polymarket

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

0

Music09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Spotify Wrapped Names the Most-Streamed Artist of 2026

Spotify, Regeringsgatan 19, 111 53 Stockholm, Sweden

Spotify Wrapped Names the Most-Streamed Artist of 2026

Starts 12/03/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 62 daysSpotify^[2] has not announced when 2026's Wrapped drops. The 2025 report - the source Polymarket^[1] names - was published on 3 December 2025, and recent editions have all landed in the first days of December, so early December 2026 is an estimate.

Polymarket

Spotify's annual Wrapped report closes the streaming year, and on 20 September 2026 Polymarket already treated it as settled: Bad Bunny was priced at 86%, with Drake at 7% and Taylor Swift at 3%. Wrapped has landed in the first week of December in recent years.

0

Economy09/20/2026@EconDesk

Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting

Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DC

Federal Reserve

Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting

Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PM UTCSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 68 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.

Kalshi

Polymarket

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026

Miraflores Palace, Caracas, Venezuela

Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026

Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 90 daysPolymarket^[1] resolves the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026, with the end date set to December 31, 2026.

Polymarket

On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.

0

Movie09/20/2026@OddsDesk

The Highest-Grossing Film of 2026 Is Settled on 31 December

Sony Pictures Studios, 10202 West Washington Boulevard, Culver City, CA 90232, USA

The Highest-Grossing Film of 2026 Is Settled on 31 December

Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 90 daysThe 2026 calendar year closes on 31 December, and Polymarket's^[1] own rules tie settlement to Box Office Mojo's^[2] 2026 calendar-gross table once that day's data is available.

Polymarket

Polymarket's $17m market on the year's biggest film was close to done on 20 September 2026: Spider-Man: Brand New Day was priced at 94%, with Avengers: Doomsday a distant 4% and everything else at a cent or less. It resolves on Box Office Mojo's 2026 domestic calendar gross once 31 December's numbers land.

0

Movie09/20/2026@OddsDesk

The Next James Bond Is Announced

Pinewood Studios, Pinewood Road, Iver Heath, Buckinghamshire SL0 0NH, United Kingdom

The Next James Bond Is Announced

Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins60% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 60%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 90 daysNo casting date has been announced. Polymarket's^[1] market runs to 31 December 2026 and prices a one-in-five chance that no Bond is named by then, so the end of 2026 is a market-implied estimate rather than a scheduled event.

Polymarket

Kalshi

Amazon MGM's search for the seventh James Bond is one of the most heavily traded entertainment markets on either exchange. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Jack Lowden at 42% and Callum Turner at 20% - but also a 20% chance no Bond is named by 31 December 2026 at all; Kalshi's longer market had Lowden in the mid-40s and Turner in the high 30s.

0

Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?

Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan

Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?

Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins63% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 63%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 90 daysNothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.^[1]

Polymarket

Polymarket

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

0

Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

Verkhovna Rada, Hrushevskoho Street 5, Kyiv, Ukraine

Will a Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Hold by the End of 2026?

Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins64% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 64%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 90 daysNo date is set for a ceasefire. The pin takes the highest-priced rung of Polymarket's^[1][2] ladder, December 31, 2026 at 15%; the earlier October 31 rung is at 5%.

Polymarket

Polymarket

On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's ladder on a ceasefire that takes effect and holds for ten straight days gave December 31, 2026 a 15% chance, and October 31 only 5%. Ukraine signing any written peace instrument with Russia before 2027 was at 11%, and Kalshi put a first in-person Putin-Zelenskyy meeting before 2027 at 7%.

0

Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Ethereum's 2026 High Is Fixed at Year-End

Ethereum's 2026 High Is Fixed at Year-End

Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 90 daysA year-high market is decided when the year ends: Kalshi^[1] expires the event at 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, which makes December 31, 2026 the last day it can be settled on. The date is fixed by the market’s own terms, not estimated.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.

0

Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk

SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count

SpaceX Headquarters, 1 Rocket Road, Hawthorne, CA

SpaceX Closes Out Its 2026 Launch Count

Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins75% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 75%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 90 daysAn annual count is settled when the year ends: Kalshi^[1] expires the 2026 event on December 31, 2026 and Polymarket^[2] closes its version at 04:59 UTC on January 1, 2027, so the date follows the market’s terms rather than an estimate.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Kalshi settles its annual SpaceX launch tally at the end of 2026. On 20 September 2026 above 120 launches was all but certain at 97%, above 140 traded at 68% and above 150 at 11%. Polymarket’s bucketed version agreed, putting 140–159 at 75.9%.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker

United States Capitol, Washington, DC

The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker

Starts 01/03/2027SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 93 daysThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.

Kalshi

Polymarket

The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election

Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France

France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election

Starts 04/18/2027SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins78% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 78%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 198 daysThe French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr^[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket^[1][3] said only "around April 2027".

Polymarket

Polymarket

Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027; the government has set the first round for Sunday, April 18 and the runoff for May 2. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.

0

Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027

National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA

Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027

Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins74% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 74%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 1.2 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi^[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.

0

Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit

SpaceX Starbase, Boca Chica, TX

Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit

Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins69% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 69%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 1.2 yearsNo docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s^[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s^[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Docking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC

Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election

Starts 11/07/2028SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins72% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 72%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 2.1 yearsFederal law sets Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which falls on November 7 in 2028.^[1]

Kalshi

Polymarket

Election Day for the 2028 U.S. presidential race is November 7, 2028, and Kalshi's winner market was still wide open on 20 September 2026: J.D. Vance led at 22%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 12% and Marco Rubio at 9.6%. The winner takes office on January 20, 2029.

0

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag

Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany

Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag

Starts 03/25/2029ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins60% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 60%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 2.5 yearsNo date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.

Kalshi

Polymarket

The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.

0

Recent

Movie10/01/2026@FilmDesk
Tom Cruise and Iñárritu's 'Digger' Opens in US Theaters, Tracking for a Soft Weekend
Warner Bros. Studios, 4000, Warner Boulevard, Burbank, Los Angeles County, California, 91522, United StatesWarner Bros. Pictures
10/02/2026 - 10/04/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins77% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 77%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterTodayWarner Bros. releases Digger in US and UK theaters on 2 October 2026 (internationally from 30 September); the pin covers the 2-4 October opening weekend.^[1]
Polymarket
Kalshi
Warner Bros. opens Alejandro G. Iñárritu's dark comedy Digger, starring Tom Cruise, in US and UK theaters on 2 October 2026. Tracking points to $12-15 million from 3,300 screens against a $125-180 million budget.
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
10/01/2026 - 09/30/2027SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins84% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 84%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1 day agoThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.^[1]
Polymarket
Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.
Crime10/01/2026@LawDesk
A Pilot Stabs His Co-Pilot on Flydubai 1073 to Tel Aviv, and Passengers Retake the Cockpit
Tabuk Airport, طريق المدينه المنوره, Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Airport, Tabuk, Tabuk Governorate, Tabuk Province, 47911, Saudi ArabiaFlydubai
Starts 09/30/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins84% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 84%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better2 days agoNBC News^[1], ABC News^[3] and CNN^[4] reported the attack the same day, 30 September 2026, on a flight that left Dubai at 7:05 a.m. local time.
Polymarket
On 30 September 2026 an Omani pilot stabbed Captain Smit Machchhar on Flydubai flight 1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv, sending the Boeing 737 into a dive; passengers subdued him and the plane landed in Tabuk, Saudi Arabia, with all 174 aboard.
AI09/28/2026@TechDesk
Google Announces Gemini 4 Argon
Googleplex, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, California 94043, United StatesGoogle
Starts 09/30/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better2 days agoGoogle announced Gemini 4 Argon on 30 September 2026 (9to5Google^[1], 1:00 PM PT); it is with trusted testers and cyber defenders now and 'rolling out soon' to AI Ultra and paid API customers, so the wider release date is unstated. This replaces the earlier 14 October estimate.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on 30 September as its new frontier model, rolling out soon to Google AI Ultra subscribers and paid API customers at an introductory $2/$10 per million tokens, with no firm release date.
Space09/20/2026@TechDesk
Starship Reaches Orbit for the First Time on Flight 14
Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USASpaceX
Starts 09/28/2026 12:48PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins86% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 86%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 7 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better4 days agoCNBC^[2] and NPR^[3], 28 Sep 2026: liftoff at 7:48 a.m. CT from Starbase ("At 7:48 a.m. CT, Starship's Super Heavy booster ignited its 33 rocket engines"); Launch Library 2 records T-0 as 12:48:59 UTC, accurate to the second.
Kalshi
Polymarket
SpaceX's 14th Starship test flight lifted off from Starbase, Texas at 7:48 a.m. CT on 28 September 2026 and became the first Starship to reach orbit, after 13 earlier flights that were all suborbital. One of the ship's six engines shut down during ascent; Starship still reached orbit and released 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first of the new generation and its first operational payload. The flight was cut from a planned ten hours to about three: the ship deorbited and splashed down in the Pacific north of Hawaii, and the Super Heavy booster splashed down in the Gulf off Starbase instead of a tower catch.
Music09/27/2026@MusicDesk
Taylor Swift Wins Video of the Year and Madonna Artist of the Year at the 2026 VMAs
Peacock Theater, 777 Chick Hearn Court, South Park, Downtown, Los Angeles, Los Angeles County, California, 90015, United StatesMTV
Starts 09/27/2026 11:30PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins82% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 82%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 10 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better5 days agoThe Hollywood Reporter^[7][8], 28 September 2026: the VMAs 'began live right at 4:30 p.m. PT within Los Angeles' Peacock Theater', while CBS joined about 21 minutes late behind the Ravens-Cowboys game; Yahoo's^[1] live blog has Video of the Year, the night's last award, airing at 10:09 p.m. ET on that delayed feed.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Taylor Swift won Video of the Year for 'The Fate of Ophelia' and the first Artist Director Honors at the 2026 VMAs in Los Angeles, where Madonna took Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration with Sabrina Carpenter and Best Dance, Sienna Spiro Best New Artist and Nirvana the Video Vanguard Award.
Software09/19/2026@OddsDesk
Anthropic Expected to Release Its Next Claude Opus Model
Anthropic, 500 Howard Street, San Francisco, CAAnthropic
Starts 09/21/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins65% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 65%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence11 days agoNo official date: September 21 is the day Polymarket's^[1][2] per-day market prices highest, at 31% on its outcome row (the page header reads 30.5%), with September 22 at 25% and September 24 at 15%, and “No release by September 30” at 22%. The figures are the chance on each row, not the Buy Yes or Buy No prices in cents beside them.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Prediction-market traders expected Anthropic to ship the successor to Claude Opus 5 (released July 24, 2026) within days. On 19 September 2026 Polymarket's per-day market made September 21 the single likeliest day at 31%, ahead of September 22 at 25%, and its deadline market gave a release by September 30 an 83% chance and by October 31 98%. Anthropic had not announced the model; the “Opus 5.1” name comes from leaked early-access identifiers and early tester reports.
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Russians Vote for a New State Duma
State Duma, Okhotny Ryad 1, Moscow, Russia
09/18/2026 - 09/20/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins73% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 73%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidence14 days agoRussian law holds federal elections on a single voting day, the third Sunday of September, which is September 20 in 2026; Monocle reports voting runs across the three days from September 18, and Polymarket’s^[1][2] market on the winner ends September 20.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Russia's State Duma election runs over three days, September 18-20, 2026, its single voting day being the third Sunday of September. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket gave United Russia a 99.8% chance of winning the most seats, and its companion market had the party landing on 340-354 seats (43%) or 325-339 (34%).
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Raises Rates a Quarter Point to 3.75%-4.00% at the September 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 09/16/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better16 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 16 September 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 15-16 September meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC voted 12-0 on 16 September 2026 to raise the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, and its projections now point to a higher year-end rate.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at the July 2026 FOMC Meeting With Three Dissents in Favour of a Hike
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 07/29/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better65 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 29 July 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 28-29 July meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC kept the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 29 July 2026 by a 9-3 vote, with Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan preferring a quarter-point increase.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at the June 2026 FOMC Meeting Under Chair Warsh and Removes the Easing Bias
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 06/17/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins88% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 88%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better107 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3][4] statement is dated 17 June 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 16-17 June meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[5] and Polymarket^[6] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
At the first meeting led by Kevin Warsh, the FOMC voted 12-0 on 17 June 2026 to keep the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, and its projections moved from cuts to a hike by year-end.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at the April 2026 FOMC Meeting in an 8-4 Vote With Four Dissents
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 04/29/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better156 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 29 April 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 28-29 April meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 29 April 2026, its most divided vote of the year: Stephen Miran wanted a cut, and three presidents objected to the statement's easing bias.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the March 2026 FOMC Meeting and Flags Middle East Uncertainty
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 03/18/2026 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better198 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 18 March 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 17-18 March meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 18 March 2026 by an 11-1 vote, adding that developments in the Middle East made the outlook uncertain.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the January 2026 FOMC Meeting With Two Dissents for a Cut
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 01/28/2026 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better247 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 28 January 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 27-28 January meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 28 January 2026 by a 10-2 vote, with Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller preferring a quarter-point cut.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 3.50%-3.75% at the December 2025 FOMC Meeting With Three Dissents
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 12/10/2025 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better296 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 10 December 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 9-10 December meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 10 December 2025 by a 9-3 vote and began buying shorter-term Treasury securities to keep reserves ample.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 3.75%-4.00% at the October 2025 FOMC Meeting and Will End Balance Sheet Runoff
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 10/29/2025 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better338 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 29 October 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 28-29 October meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on 29 October 2025 by a 10-2 vote and decided to end the reduction of its securities holdings on 1 December.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 4.00%-4.25% at the September 2025 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 09/17/2025 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.0 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 17 September 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 16-17 September meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent on 17 September 2025 by an 11-1 vote, with Stephen Miran preferring a half-point cut.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the July 2025 FOMC Meeting With Two Governors Dissenting for a Cut
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 07/30/2025 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.2 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 30 July 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 29-30 July meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 30 July 2025 by a 9-2 vote, with Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller preferring a quarter-point cut.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the June 2025 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 06/18/2025 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.3 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 18 June 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 17-18 June meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 18 June 2025 by a unanimous vote, with projections still pointing to two cuts in 2025.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the May 2025 FOMC Meeting With Net Exports Swinging the Data
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 05/07/2025 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.4 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 7 May 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 6-7 May meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 7 May 2025 by a unanimous vote, noting that swings in net exports had affected the data.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the March 2025 FOMC Meeting and Slows Its Balance Sheet Runoff
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 03/19/2025 6:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.5 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 19 March 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 18-19 March meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 19 March 2025 and cut the Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion a month from April, with Christopher Waller dissenting.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the January 2025 FOMC Meeting After Three Cuts
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 01/29/2025 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.7 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 29 January 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 28-29 January meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 29 January 2025, with all twelve voting members in favour.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 4.25%-4.50% at the December 2024 FOMC Meeting With One Dissent
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 12/18/2024 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.8 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 18 December 2024 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 17-18 December meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 18 December 2024 by an 11-1 vote, with Beth Hammack preferring to hold.
Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk
Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 4.50%-4.75% at the November 2024 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 11/07/2024 7:00PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.9 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 7 November 2024 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 6-7 November meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent on 7 November 2024, with all twelve voting members in favour.

145

Companies

Federal Reserve59
SpaceX9
Google41
Republic Records7
Warner Bros. Pictures5
United States Department of the Treasury3
Anthropic27