Starship: upcoming dates

Upcoming dates: 2 · All pins: 3

Next: SpaceX Launches Second-Generation Starlink Mobile Satellites, June 30, 2027.

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Upcoming

Telecom09/30/2026@ThePinGang
SpaceX Launches Second-Generation Starlink Mobile Satellites
Starbase, Texas, USASpaceX
Starts 06/30/2027ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins70% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 70%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 269 daysEstimated: Broadband Breakfast^[1] (3 Mar 2026) reports SpaceX executives at MWC saying launches begin in 'mid-2027', pending regulatory approvals; 30 June 2027 is used.
SpaceX plans to begin launching its second-generation Starlink Mobile direct-to-cell constellation on Starship in mid-2027, deploying about 1,200 satellites within six months for global voice and data coverage in S-band spectrum, pending regulatory approvals.
Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit
SpaceX Starbase, Boca Chica, TXSpaceX
Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins69% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 69%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 1.2 yearsNo docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s^[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s^[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Docking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.

Recent

Space09/20/2026@TechDesk
Starship Reaches Orbit for the First Time on Flight 14
Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USASpaceX
Starts 09/28/2026 12:48PM UTCCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins86% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 86%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 7 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better6 days agoCNBC^[2] and NPR^[3], 28 Sep 2026: liftoff at 7:48 a.m. CT from Starbase ("At 7:48 a.m. CT, Starship's Super Heavy booster ignited its 33 rocket engines"); Launch Library 2 records T-0 as 12:48:59 UTC, accurate to the second.
Kalshi
Polymarket
SpaceX's 14th Starship test flight lifted off from Starbase, Texas at 7:48 a.m. CT on 28 September 2026 and became the first Starship to reach orbit, after 13 earlier flights that were all suborbital. One of the ship's six engines shut down during ascent; Starship still reached orbit and released 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first of the new generation and its first operational payload. The flight was cut from a planned ten hours to about three: the ship deorbited and splashed down in the Pacific north of Hawaii, and the Super Heavy booster splashed down in the Gulf off Starbase instead of a tower catch.

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Upcoming

Telecom09/30/2026@ThePinGang

SpaceX Launches Second-Generation Starlink Mobile Satellites

Starbase, Texas, USA

SpaceX

Starts 06/30/2027ESTIMATED70% CONFIDENCEin 269 daysEstimated: Broadband Breakfast^[1] (3 Mar 2026) reports SpaceX executives at MWC saying launches begin in 'mid-2027', pending regulatory approvals; 30 June 2027 is used.

SpaceX plans to begin launching its second-generation Starlink Mobile direct-to-cell constellation on Starship in mid-2027, deploying about 1,200 satellites within six months for global voice and data coverage in S-band spectrum, pending regulatory approvals.

Space09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Two SpaceX Starships Dock in Orbit

SpaceX Starbase, Boca Chica, TX

SpaceX

Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsNo docking has been scheduled. Polymarket’s^[2] dated ladder puts 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 and 51.5% by the end of 2027, so 2027 carries about 48 points against 3 for 2026; a year-only date takes its last day. Kalshi’s^[1][3] "before 2028" market prices the whole question at 69%.

Kalshi

Polymarket

Docking two Starships is the step that makes orbital propellant transfer — and with it Artemis and Mars — possible. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi gave it a 69% chance before 2028, while Polymarket’s dated ladder put only 3.2% on it happening by the end of 2026 against 51.5% by the end of 2027.

Recent

Space09/20/2026@TechDesk

Starship Reaches Orbit for the First Time on Flight 14

Orbital Launch Pad 2, SpaceX Starbase, TX, USA

SpaceX

Starship Reaches Orbit for the First Time on Flight 14

Starts 09/28/2026 12:48PM UTCCONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE6 days agoCNBC^[2] and NPR^[3], 28 Sep 2026: liftoff at 7:48 a.m. CT from Starbase ("At 7:48 a.m. CT, Starship's Super Heavy booster ignited its 33 rocket engines"); Launch Library 2 records T-0 as 12:48:59 UTC, accurate to the second.

Kalshi

Polymarket

SpaceX's 14th Starship test flight lifted off from Starbase, Texas at 7:48 a.m. CT on 28 September 2026 and became the first Starship to reach orbit, after 13 earlier flights that were all suborbital. One of the ship's six engines shut down during ascent; Starship still reached orbit and released 26 Starlink V3 satellites, the first of the new generation and its first operational payload. The flight was cut from a planned ten hours to about three: the ship deorbited and splashed down in the Pacific north of Hawaii, and the Super Heavy booster splashed down in the Gulf off Starbase instead of a tower catch.