- Start
- Jan 1, 205050% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
World population projected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050
- The UN projects world population rising from about 7.7 billion (2019 estimate) to 9.7 billion in 2050, possibly peaking near 11 billion late in the century, though the UN's Population Division director says that peak "is not certain"[2][3]
- More than half of the growth to 2050 comes from nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt and the United States; sub-Saharan Africa's population nearly doubles[2][3]
- India is projected to overtake China (by 2027 in the 2019 revision), while China's population falls by more than two percent by 2050[3]
- Fertility fell from 3.2 births per woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019 and is projected at 2.2 by 2050, against 2.1 needed for replacement[2][3]
- 27 countries or areas lost at least one percent of population since 2010; 55 countries are projected to shrink by 1% or more by 2050[2][3]
- Life expectancy is expected to reach 77.1 years in 2050, up from 72.6 now[3]
References 380% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%un.org/en/development/desa/news/population/2015-report.htmlun.org· Posted Jun 24, 2017· Starts Jan 1, 2050 ✓· 0% of score
Given as a target, not a fixed date, per the pin description: "…rent world population of 7.3 billion is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 a…"
- [2]80%UN: World population expected to rise to 9.7 billion in 2050fox11online.com· Added Sep 14, 2026· 100% of score
Fox11 reports the UN projects world population will "increase from 7.7 billion currently to 9.7 billion in 2050," directly matching the pin's stated 9.7 billion-by-2050 projection and its stored 2050 target date, consistent with the estimate's forward-looking nature.[1]
- [3]80%UN: World population expected to rise to 9.7 billion in 2050aljazeera.com· Published Jun 18, 2019· 0% of score
Al Jazeera independently reports the UN's continuing projection that world population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050, corroborating the pin's source figure from the 2015 UN DESA report.
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