The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
The Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Who holds the gavel on January 3 follows from the November 3, 2026 House result, which this market prices directly.[1]
The House Minority Leader, the 86% favourite in Kalshi's[1] market, spends the September 2, 2026 episode on the midterms that decide whether he takes the gavel in January.
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