SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEUN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
- Start
- Jan 1, 202775% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
- The Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly on the Security Council's recommendation, for a five-year term starting January 1.
- Kalshi's field of eleven: Rebeca Grynspan 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 18%, Olara Otunnu 10%, Macky Sall 8.5%, Maria Fernanda Espinosa 8%, Michelle Bachelet 8%.
- The contracts settle on confirmation and close on January 5, 2027; an announcement alone is enough.
- Guterres has held the post since January 2017.
References 175% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxunsec/next-un-secretary-general/kxunsec-27jankalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Jan 1, 2027 ✓· 100% of score
UN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's contracts close on January 5, 2027.
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