- Start
- Apr 19, 202325% CONFIDENCELow confidencefrom the source
Goldman estimates the debt racked up by China’s provincial governments at $23 trillion — 126% of gross domestic product
- Bloomberg (via Japan Times, May 22, 2023) headlined China's local debt at $23 trillion, matching the Goldman Sachs estimate in the pin; the text is truncated by a paywall[2]
- Case study: the coal city of Hegang was forced into an unprecedented financial restructuring in 2021, with debt more than double its fiscal income, the first city to take emergency steps under the State Council's 2016 rules[2]
- Other heavily indebted municipalities look set to follow, an ominous sign for Xi Jinping; residents cite no indoor heating, more traffic fines and salary delays[2]
References 366% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]25%twitter.com/BurggrabenH/status/1650415388553822211twitter.com· Posted May 11, 2023· Starts Apr 19, 2023 ✓· 32% of score
Date has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.
- [2]82%China's $23 trillion local debt mess is about to get worsejapantimes.co.jp· Published May 22, 2023· 34% of score
The Japan Times independently carries the same reporting on Goldman Sachs' $23 trillion (126% of GDP) estimate of China's total local government debt, corroborating the figure quoted in the pin's tweet.
- [3]88%China's $23 Trillion Local Debt Mess Is About to Get Worsebloomberg.com· Published May 21, 2023· 34% of score
Bloomberg independently reports Goldman Sachs' estimate that China's total local government debt, including off-balance-sheet financing vehicles, reaches about $23 trillion (roughly 126% of GDP), corroborating the specific figure in the pin's tweet, though Bloomberg's own piece is from a few weeks after the pin's stored mid-April 2023 date.
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