GeopoliticsPosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 3:25 pm@OddsDesk To timeline

The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office

GeopoliticsPosted 09/20/202609/20/2026 at 3:25 pm@OddsDesk To timeline

Starts 01/01/2027 SCHEDULED

Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Angola Elects a National Assembly and President
Comissao Nacional Eleitoral (Angola)National Assembly, Luanda, Angola
Starts 08/31/2027ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 342 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Angola by August 2027"; with a deadline rather than a convened day, the pin takes the last day of August.
Angola holds general elections by August 2027 for the 220-seat National Assembly, whose winning party's list leader becomes president.
0.62
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026
Miraflores Palace, Caracas, Venezuela
Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysPolymarket^[1] resolves the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026, with the end date set to December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.
0.59
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Argentina Votes for a President and Congress
Camara Nacional ElectoralPalacio del Congreso, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Starts 10/24/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to take place in Argentina on 24 October 2027", the fourth Sunday of October that Argentine law sets for a general election.
Argentines choose a president and renew Congress on 24 October 2027, the first presidential election since Javier Milei's 2023 win.
0.59
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Kenya Votes for a President, Senate and Assembly
Independent Electoral and Boundaries CommissionParliament Buildings, Nairobi, Kenya
Starts 08/10/2027SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 321 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Kenya on 10 August 2027", the second Tuesday in August that Kenya's constitution fixes for a general election.
Kenyans elect a president and the members of the National Assembly and Senate on 10 August 2027. Incumbent William Ruto is seeking a second term.
0.58
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
A State Arrival Ceremony for Xi Jinping on the South Lawn
South Lawn, The White House, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House
Starts 09/24/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 1 dayThe White House^[1] programme states that "on Thursday morning, September 24, the President and First Lady will host a State Arrival Ceremony". It gives the day but no hour, so the pin is all-day on 24 September.
479 military personnel from every branch, an Armed Forces Full Honor Cordon, a Rose Garden military review and a flyover by a B-2 and four F-22s: the formal welcome for Xi Jinping on the morning of 24 September 2026, his first White House arrival ceremony since 2015.
0.58
Geopolitics09/23/2026@PoliticsDesk
US, Denmark and Greenland Sign an Arctic Security Agreement
Headquarters of the United Nations, 760 United Nations Plaza, Manhattan, New York
Starts 09/22/2026CONFIRMED 86% CONFIDENCE1 day agoStated as firm, per the agreement text: "Done at New York on the 22nd day of September, 2026"; the clock time is not reported (NBC6's schedule listed "10:40 AM: President Trump participates in a trilateral signing" but a White House^[1][2] photo is stamped 11:19 AM EDT), so it is held as an all-day date.
President Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed a pact at UN Headquarters letting the US add defense areas at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig and expand Pituffik Space Base. It bars non-NATO states from military installations in Greenland and has no end date.
0.58
Anime09/15/2026@AnimeDesk
Kaguya-sama: Love is War? Premieres
Suginami, Tokyo, JapanA-1 Pictures
Starts 04/11/2020CONFIRMED 92% CONFIDENCE86%12 episodes6.4 years agoBroadcast start date confirmed on the title's own MyAnimeList^[1] listing.
The second TV season of Kaguya-sama: Love is War begins airing, continuing student council president Miyuki Shirogane and vice president Kaguya Shinomiya's battle of wits to avoid being the first to confess their feelings.
0.57
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Trump Greets Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews
Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House
Starts 09/23/2026 10:30PMSCHEDULED 83% CONFIDENCETodayThe President's schedule for 23 September lists "6:00 PM - THE PRESIDENT departs the White House^[7] en route to Joint Base Andrews" for the "Arrival Ceremony with the President of the People's Republic of China"; AP says Xi and Peng Liyuan "are expected to arrive at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday evening". 18:30 ET is estimated from the 6 PM departure; this replaces SCMP's^[9] earlier 'around 4pm'.
Trump will meet Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews at about 4pm on 23 September 2026, a reception US presidents almost never give a visiting head of state. It opens Xi's 23-25 September state visit, his first to Washington since 2015.
0.56
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Finland Elects Its First Post-NATO Parliament
Parliament House, Helsinki, FinlandMinistry of Justice (Finland)
Starts 04/18/2027SCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 207 daysThe Ministry of Justice's own election service gives the election day as "Sunday 18 April 2027", matching Wikipedia's^[1] "Parliamentary elections will be held in Finland on 18 April 2027".
Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.
0.56
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election
Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France
Starts 04/18/2027SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 207 daysThe French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr^[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket^[1][3] said only "around April 2027".
Polymarket
Polymarket
Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.
0.56
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway
Starts 10/09/2026 9:00AMSCHEDULED 86% CONFIDENCEin 16 daysNobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
Kalshi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.
0.56
Climate09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
COP32 Brings the Climate Talks to Addis Ababa
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia
Starts 11/30/2027ESTIMATED 70% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsEthiopia's hosting was endorsed by the African Group on the second day of COP30 and the conference is set for November 2027, but UNFCCC^[1] has not yet published the exact days - so the pin takes the last day of the stated month.
The 32nd UN climate conference is held in Addis Ababa in November 2027, the first COP in sub-Saharan Africa in sixteen years, with the African Group holding the presidency.
0.56

UN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.

Start: Jan 1, 202775% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office

Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.

The Secretary-General is appointed by the General Assembly on the Security Council's recommendation, for a five-year term starting January 1.
Kalshi's field of eleven: Rebeca Grynspan 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 18%, Olara Otunnu 10%, Macky Sall 8.5%, Maria Fernanda Espinosa 8%, Michelle Bachelet 8%.
The contracts settle on confirmation and close on January 5, 2027; an announcement alone is enough.
Guterres has held the post since January 2017.

@OddsDesk

References 175% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]75%
kalshi.com/markets/kxunsec/next-un-secretary-general/kxunsec-27jan
kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Jan 1, 2027 ✓· 100% of score
UN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's contracts close on January 5, 2027.

Suggest a correction

Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.

Comments

Thread

Respond to this Pin

1The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office

Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Angola Elects a National Assembly and President
Comissao Nacional Eleitoral (Angola)National Assembly, Luanda, Angola
Starts 08/31/2027ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 342 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Angola by August 2027"; with a deadline rather than a convened day, the pin takes the last day of August.
Angola holds general elections by August 2027 for the 220-seat National Assembly, whose winning party's list leader becomes president.
0.62
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026
Miraflores Palace, Caracas, Venezuela
Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysPolymarket^[1] resolves the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026, with the end date set to December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.
0.59
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Argentina Votes for a President and Congress
Camara Nacional ElectoralPalacio del Congreso, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Starts 10/24/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to take place in Argentina on 24 October 2027", the fourth Sunday of October that Argentine law sets for a general election.
Argentines choose a president and renew Congress on 24 October 2027, the first presidential election since Javier Milei's 2023 win.
0.59
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Kenya Votes for a President, Senate and Assembly
Independent Electoral and Boundaries CommissionParliament Buildings, Nairobi, Kenya
Starts 08/10/2027SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 321 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Kenya on 10 August 2027", the second Tuesday in August that Kenya's constitution fixes for a general election.
Kenyans elect a president and the members of the National Assembly and Senate on 10 August 2027. Incumbent William Ruto is seeking a second term.
0.58
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
A State Arrival Ceremony for Xi Jinping on the South Lawn
South Lawn, The White House, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House
Starts 09/24/2026SCHEDULED 80% CONFIDENCEin 1 dayThe White House^[1] programme states that "on Thursday morning, September 24, the President and First Lady will host a State Arrival Ceremony". It gives the day but no hour, so the pin is all-day on 24 September.
479 military personnel from every branch, an Armed Forces Full Honor Cordon, a Rose Garden military review and a flyover by a B-2 and four F-22s: the formal welcome for Xi Jinping on the morning of 24 September 2026, his first White House arrival ceremony since 2015.
0.58
Geopolitics09/23/2026@PoliticsDesk
US, Denmark and Greenland Sign an Arctic Security Agreement
Headquarters of the United Nations, 760 United Nations Plaza, Manhattan, New York
Starts 09/22/2026CONFIRMED 86% CONFIDENCE1 day agoStated as firm, per the agreement text: "Done at New York on the 22nd day of September, 2026"; the clock time is not reported (NBC6's schedule listed "10:40 AM: President Trump participates in a trilateral signing" but a White House^[1][2] photo is stamped 11:19 AM EDT), so it is held as an all-day date.
President Trump, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen and Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen signed a pact at UN Headquarters letting the US add defense areas at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig and expand Pituffik Space Base. It bars non-NATO states from military installations in Greenland and has no end date.
0.58
Anime09/15/2026@AnimeDesk
Kaguya-sama: Love is War? Premieres
Suginami, Tokyo, JapanA-1 Pictures
Starts 04/11/2020CONFIRMED 92% CONFIDENCE86%12 episodes6.4 years agoBroadcast start date confirmed on the title's own MyAnimeList^[1] listing.
The second TV season of Kaguya-sama: Love is War begins airing, continuing student council president Miyuki Shirogane and vice president Kaguya Shinomiya's battle of wits to avoid being the first to confess their feelings.
0.57
Geopolitics09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Trump Greets Xi Jinping at Joint Base Andrews
Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House
Starts 09/23/2026 10:30PMSCHEDULED 83% CONFIDENCETodayThe President's schedule for 23 September lists "6:00 PM - THE PRESIDENT departs the White House^[7] en route to Joint Base Andrews" for the "Arrival Ceremony with the President of the People's Republic of China"; AP says Xi and Peng Liyuan "are expected to arrive at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday evening". 18:30 ET is estimated from the 6 PM departure; this replaces SCMP's^[9] earlier 'around 4pm'.
Trump will meet Xi Jinping and Peng Liyuan on the tarmac at Joint Base Andrews at about 4pm on 23 September 2026, a reception US presidents almost never give a visiting head of state. It opens Xi's 23-25 September state visit, his first to Washington since 2015.
0.56
Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Finland Elects Its First Post-NATO Parliament
Parliament House, Helsinki, FinlandMinistry of Justice (Finland)
Starts 04/18/2027SCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 207 daysThe Ministry of Justice's own election service gives the election day as "Sunday 18 April 2027", matching Wikipedia's^[1] "Parliamentary elections will be held in Finland on 18 April 2027".
Finns elect the 200 members of the Eduskunta on 18 April 2027, the first parliamentary election since Finland joined NATO in 2023.
0.56
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election
Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France
Starts 04/18/2027SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 207 daysThe French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr^[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket^[1][3] said only "around April 2027".
Polymarket
Polymarket
Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.
0.56
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo, Norway
Starts 10/09/2026 9:00AMSCHEDULED 86% CONFIDENCEin 16 daysNobelPrize.org^[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
Kalshi
The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in Oslo on 9 October at 11:00 CEST, choosing from 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations). On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13%, Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%.
0.56
Climate09/21/2026@ClimateDesk
COP32 Brings the Climate Talks to Addis Ababa
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeAddis Ababa, Ethiopia
Starts 11/30/2027ESTIMATED 70% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsEthiopia's hosting was endorsed by the African Group on the second day of COP30 and the conference is set for November 2027, but UNFCCC^[1] has not yet published the exact days - so the pin takes the last day of the stated month.
The 32nd UN climate conference is held in Addis Ababa in November 2027, the first COP in sub-Saharan Africa in sixteen years, with the African Group holding the presidency.
0.56

More like this

References 175% CONFIDENCE

Suggest a correction

Comments

Thread

More like this