The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Estimated, per NextDecade's FID release: "The guaranteed substantial completion date for Train 4, as well as the date of first commercial delivery (DFCD) under the Train 4 LNG SPAs, is anticipated in the second half of 2030" - a half-year, so its last day.
Latest filing: Train 4 construction commenced September 2025; every Trains 1-5 SPA is effective, with deliveries starting on each train's date of first commercial delivery, tied to substantial completion.[1]
States that in April 2025 NextDecade signed a 20-year SPA with an Aramco subsidiary for 1.2 mtpa from Train 4, FOB and Henry Hub-linked, conditional on the Train 4 FID (taken in September), with deliveries from substantial completion in the second half of 2030.[1]
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