Pins matching tag:"2026 Midterms"

California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.

Governor Kathy Hochul seeks a second full term against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican and Conservative nominee endorsed by President Trump. September polls put Hochul ahead by 9 points (Siena) to 19 points (Quinnipiac).

Texas votes for a U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket had Democrat James Talarico at 60% against Republican Ken Paxton at 42%, and its companion market gave Democrats a 61% chance of taking the chamber.

Democrats clinched Senate control on November 3, 2026, reaching 55 seats to Republicans' 44 with Alaska uncalled, after flipping Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas, per NBC News and AP data.

Democrat Mary Peltola led Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by fewer than 700 votes with 74% counted on 6 November 2026, and Alaska will not run its ranked-choice tabulation before 18 November. On 13 November Kalshi gave 56% to an AP call before 18 November and 81% before 19 November.

The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.