The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 259 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.

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• Finance05/09/2023@ThePinGang

  Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%

  Federal Reserve

  Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx

  — Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

  Starts 05/08/2023UNVERIFIED25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago

  Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.

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• Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk

  Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

   Kalshi

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  •   

  The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.

  0.61

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

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• Finance05/04/2023@ThePinGang

  The Fed's rate-setting body said it would raise its benchmark rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%, the highest level since 2007

  Federal Reserve

  

  05/03/2023 - 05/08/2023UNVERIFIED70% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago

  The increase is the 10th straight interest-rate hike since last March in what has been the most aggressive rate-hiking regime since the 1980s.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the April 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 04/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 217 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "April 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its April 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 63%, Cut 25bps 11%, Hike 25bps 8%.

  0.61

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.

  0.60

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the January 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 01/27/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 126 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "January 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its January 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 61%, Hike 25bps 25%, Cut 25bps 8%.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  US Fiscal Year 2028 Begins

  United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury

  

  10/01/2027 - 09/30/2028SCHEDULED83% CONFIDENCEin 1.0 yearsThe federal fiscal year is the 12-month period beginning on 1 October and ending on 30 September of the next calendar year, so fiscal 2028 runs 1 October 2027 to 30 September 2028.^[1]

  The United States federal fiscal year 2028 starts on 1 October 2027 - the date by which Congress must have funded the government or shut it down.

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