- Start
- Dec 31, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
The Top AI Model of 2026 Is Decided
- The event settles on the top-ranked model at the end of 2026 and expires December 31, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, on about 11.5M contracts — the largest AI market on the exchange[1]
- Year-end odds: Claude 71.5%, ChatGPT 13.6%, Gemini 8.9%, Grok 4.1%, Muse Spark 1.9%, Kimi 1.0%, Qwen 0.7%, Ernie 0.2%[1]
- Claude’s current hold is much firmer than that: the September 2026 version of the same market prices it at 98%, so most of the year-end uncertainty is about releases still to come[2]
- The related "first to 1550 on Text Arena before 2027" market is far less settled — Claude 19%, ChatGPT 15% — which is traders saying the crown may change hands on a capability jump rather than on rank[3]
References 375% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxllm1/year-end-top-llm/kxllm1-26dec31kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2026 ✓· 33% of score
The market is settled on the ranking as it stands on December 31, 2026 and expires that day at 15:00 UTC, so the date is fixed by the market’s own terms.
- [2]80%Kalshi: Best AI in Sep 2026?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
The September event on the same Kalshi[1][3] series shows the starting position — Claude at 98% — so the year-end 71.5% is a measure of release risk, not of a contested lead today.
- [3]70%Kalshi: Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
The capability-threshold market on the same exchange is much closer (Claude 19%, ChatGPT 15%), which is the counterweight to the year-end ranking.[1]
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