Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%

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• Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk

  Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

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  The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 259 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.

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• Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PMSCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.

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  The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

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• Finance05/12/2023@ThePinGang

  Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.

  Federal Reserve

  6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.

  — RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

  Starts 05/11/2023UNVERIFIED25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago

  Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.

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• Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027

  National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA

  

  Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi^[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.

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  Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.

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• Finance09/23/2026@HealthDesk

  J&J Q2 2026 Results: $25.3B Sales, 2026 Outlook Raised

  Johnson & Johnson World Headquarters, 1 Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08933, United StatesJohnson & Johnson·…

  

  Starts 07/15/2026 12:30PMCONFIRMED83% CONFIDENCE70 days agoConfirmed by J&J's release dated "New Brunswick, N.J. (July 15, 2026)", which says it "will conduct a conference call with investors to discuss this earnings release today at 8:30 a.m., Eastern Time" (12:30 UTC; the edited transcript is stamped "JULY 15, 2026 / 12:30PM GMT").^[1]

  Johnson & Johnson reported second-quarter sales of $25.3 billion, up 6.6%, and adjusted EPS of $2.90, and raised its 2026 outlook to about $101.1 billion in sales and $11.68 adjusted EPS at the midpoint.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000

  

  Starts 11/30/2026ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.^[1]

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

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