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EconomyPosted 09/21/202609/21/2026 at 3:03 pm·@EconDesk To timeline

United States Department of the Treasury

US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap

US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap

10/01/2026 - 09/30/2027 SCHEDULED 84% CONFIDENCEThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.^[1]

Start: Oct 1, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
End: Sep 30, 202775% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap

$16.1K traded

Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.

The federal fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026, the date by which Congress is meant to have enacted all twelve appropriations bills^[1]
Not one of the twelve has passed both chambers; most have cleared House committee and await Senate action^[4]
The rollover passes without a funding gap because H.R. 6500, signed on 2 September 2026, already funds agencies at fiscal 2026 levels through 11 December^[3]
Prediction markets agree: Polymarket's "Government shutdown by October 1?" was trading at about 2 percent for yes three weeks before the date^[2]

0

References 484% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]75%
crfb.org/blogs/appropriations-watch-fy-2027
crfb.org· Posted Sep 21, 2026· Starts Oct 1, 2026 ✓· Ends Sep 30, 2027 ✓· 26% of score
The US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.
[2]80%
Government shutdown by October 1? (Polymarket)
polymarket.com· Added Sep 21, 2026· 26% of score
Live market on whether funding lapses at the fiscal-year rollover; about 2 percent for yes on roughly $16,000 traded when the pin was made.^[1]
[3]95%
Congressional Bill H.R. 6500 Signed into Law (The White House)
whitehouse.gov· Published Sep 2, 2026· 24% of score
Confirms the stopgap carrying the government across 1 October and through 11 December 2026.^[1]
[4]85%
Congress punts government funding deadline to Dec. 11 (The Center Square)
thecentersquare.com· Published Sep 1, 2026· 24% of score
States that not a single fiscal 2027 appropriations bill had passed both chambers as the year began.^[1]

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United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United States

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Policy
Appropriations
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Continuing Resolution
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Fiscal Year 2027
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1The Longest Government Shutdown in US History Begins
2Half the Government Shuts Down for Four Days
3Homeland Security Goes Dark for a Record 76 Days
4Trump Signs the Stopgap That Funds the Government to December 11
5US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
6Government Funding Runs Out Again on December 11

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