India's Next General Election Picks a Prime Minister · Chronopin

India's Next General Election Picks a Prime Minister · Chronopin

Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Canadians Vote in the Next Federal Election
Centre Block, Parliament Hill, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Starts 10/15/2029SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 3.1 yearsThe Canada Elections Act fixes polling day as the third Monday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, which is October 15, 2029; Kalshi's^[1] event ticker carries the same date.
Kalshi
Canada's fixed-date law puts the next general election on the third Monday of October 2029, which is October 15. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had the Liberal Party at 60%, the Conservative Party at 38% and the NDP at 3.5%; a lost confidence vote would bring the date forward.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Israelis Elect the Next Knesset
Knesset, Kiryat Ben-Gurion, Jerusalem
Starts 10/27/2026SCHEDULED 72% CONFIDENCEin 34 daysPolymarket's^[1][3] rules state "Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026", a Tuesday, the weekday Israeli elections are always held on.
Polymarket
Kalshi
Israel's legislative election is set for Tuesday, October 27, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's market on who is sworn in as prime minister afterwards had Gadi Eizenkot at 52%, Benjamin Netanyahu at 30% and Naftali Bennett at 10%; Kalshi put a new government winning a Knesset confidence vote by February 3, 2027 at 89%.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
Starts 01/03/2027SCHEDULED 72% CONFIDENCEin 102 daysThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
California Elects Its Next Governor
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 70% CONFIDENCEin 41 daysPolymarket's^[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Brazil Votes in the First Round of Its Presidential Election
Palacio do Planalto, Praca dos Tres Poderes, Brasilia, Brazil
Starts 10/04/2026SCHEDULED 73% CONFIDENCEin 11 daysPolymarket's^[1][2] rules open with "A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026", which is the first Sunday of October, the date Brazilian law sets.
Polymarket
Polymarket
Brazil's presidential election is scheduled for Sunday, October 4, 2026. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's winner market, which includes any second round, had Flavio Bolsonaro at 58% and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 42%; a runoff, if no one clears 50%, falls on October 25.
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Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
Starts 01/01/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 100 daysUN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
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Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Argentina Votes for a President and Congress
Camara Nacional ElectoralPalacio del Congreso, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Starts 10/24/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to take place in Argentina on 24 October 2027", the fourth Sunday of October that Argentine law sets for a general election.
Argentines choose a president and renew Congress on 24 October 2027, the first presidential election since Javier Milei's 2023 win.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Germany Elects Its Next Bundestag
Reichstag building, Platz der Republik 1, Berlin, Germany
Starts 03/25/2029ESTIMATED 60% CONFIDENCEin 2.5 yearsNo date has been set. Kalshi^[1] dates its event to March 25, 2029, the last day the Basic Law's 46-to-48-month window allows after the current Bundestag first sat on March 25, 2025; a snap election would come earlier.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Bundestag elected in February 2025 first sat on March 25, 2025, and the Basic Law requires a new election 46 to 48 months later - March 25, 2029 at the latest. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's winner market had the AfD at 85% and the CDU/CSU at 12%.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Venezuela's Leader Is Decided at the End of 2026
Miraflores Palace, Caracas, Venezuela
Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysPolymarket^[1] resolves the market on who leads Venezuela at the end of 2026, with the end date set to December 31, 2026.
Polymarket
On December 31, 2026 Polymarket settles who officially holds Venezuela's head of state office. Acting president Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in on January 5 after U.S. troops captured Nicolás Maduro, and both still claim it: on 20 September 2026 the market's outcome row put Maduro at 47% and showed no percentage at all beside Rodríguez, only a 48¢ Buy Yes price.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
France Votes in the 2027 Presidential Election
Elysee Palace, 55 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honore, Paris, France
Starts 04/18/2027SCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 207 daysThe French government announced the date after a cabinet meeting on 30 June 2026, and the official service-public.gouv.fr^[2] page now gives the rounds as "April 18 and May 2, 2027". This replaces the earlier reading, which derived April 11 from the constitutional window because Polymarket^[1][3] said only "around April 2027".
Polymarket
Polymarket
Emmanuel Macron's second term ends on May 13, 2027, which puts the first round on Sunday, April 11 and the runoff on April 25. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket's 128-name market had Marine Le Pen at 37%, Edouard Philippe at 25% and Jean-Luc Melenchon at 13%.
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Elections09/21/2026@PoliticsDesk
Angola Elects a National Assembly and President
Comissao Nacional Eleitoral (Angola)National Assembly, Luanda, Angola
Starts 08/31/2027ESTIMATED 68% CONFIDENCEin 342 daysWikipedia^[1] states "General elections are scheduled to be held in Angola by August 2027"; with a deadline rather than a convened day, the pin takes the last day of August.
Angola holds general elections by August 2027 for the 220-seat National Assembly, whose winning party's list leader becomes president.
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Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Americans Vote in the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election
The White House, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Starts 11/07/2028SCHEDULED 72% CONFIDENCEin 2.1 yearsFederal law sets Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which falls on November 7 in 2028.^[1]
Kalshi
Polymarket
Election Day for the 2028 U.S. presidential race is November 7, 2028, and Kalshi's winner market was still wide open on 20 September 2026: J.D. Vance led at 22%, followed by Jon Ossoff at 12% and Marco Rubio at 9.6%. The winner takes office on January 20, 2029.
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