Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.71
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 259 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
0.70
Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.67
Finance05/12/2023@ThePinGang
Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.
Federal Reserve
6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.
— RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

Starts 05/11/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago
Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.67
Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA
Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED 74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi^[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.
0.67
Finance09/23/2026@HealthDesk
J&J Q2 2026 Results: $25.3B Sales, 2026 Outlook Raised
Johnson & Johnson World Headquarters, 1 Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08933, United StatesJohnson & Johnson…
Starts 07/15/2026 12:30PMCONFIRMED 83% CONFIDENCE70 days agoConfirmed by J&J's release dated "New Brunswick, N.J. (July 15, 2026)", which says it "will conduct a conference call with investors to discuss this earnings release today at 8:30 a.m., Eastern Time" (12:30 UTC; the edited transcript is stamped "JULY 15, 2026 / 12:30PM GMT").^[1]
Johnson & Johnson reported second-quarter sales of $25.3 billion, up 6.6%, and adjusted EPS of $2.90, and raised its 2026 outlook to about $101.1 billion in sales and $11.68 adjusted EPS at the midpoint.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.66
Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000
Starts 11/30/2026 ESTIMATED 67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.^[1]
Kalshi
Kalshi
On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.
0.65

FinancePosted 05/09/202305/09/2023 at 2:09 am@ThePinGang To timeline

Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today pic.twitter.com/OWDq1ceIEx
— Jay Cal (@Jay__Cale) May 8, 2023

Starts 05/08/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCEDate has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.

Start: May 8, 202325% CONFIDENCE Low confidencefrom the source

Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%

Tweet from @Jay__Cale (8 May 2023): the market-implied probability of another 25bps Fed rate hike in June doubled in a day, from 8.5% to 16.6%.

A May 8, 2023 post on X said the market-implied probability of another 25 bps Fed hike in June doubled that day, from 8.5% to 16.6%^[1]

@ThePinGang

References 125% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]25%
twitter.com/Jay__Cale/status/1655653917651247104
twitter.com· Posted May 9, 2023· Starts May 8, 2023 ✓· 100% of score
Date has passed, but the pin description does not confirm it happened then; unverified.

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1Probability for another 25bps hike in June doubled today 8.5% to 16.6%

Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
0.71
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the June 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 06/09/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 259 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "June 8-9" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its June 8-9 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Cut >25bps 28%, Hike 25bps 20%.
0.70
Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Fed Sets Rates at the December 2026 FOMC Meeting
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
Starts 12/09/2026 7:00PMSCHEDULED 78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s^[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s^[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
0.67
Finance05/12/2023@ThePinGang
Last time Fed Funds Rate was this high, S&P 500 TTM PE was around 18.
Federal Reserve
6/ So how has Big Tech fared? Here's a snapshot:$AAPL 29.18 on 1/4, 29.47 now$MSFT 35.39 then, 45.74 now$GOOG 25.78 then, 35.21 now$META 24.37 then, 40.24 now$NVDA 63.47 then, 164.24 now$AMZN 51.35 then, 267.10 now$NFLX and $TSLA are the only 2 with lower PEs today.
— RJR Capital (@RJRCapital) May 12, 2023

Starts 05/11/2023 UNVERIFIED 25% CONFIDENCE3.4 years ago
Tweet from @RJRCapital (11 May 2023): the last time the Fed Funds Rate was this high, the S&P 500 trailing-twelve-month P/E was around 18.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 175 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.
0.67
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the July 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 07/28/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 308 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "July 27-28" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its July 27-28 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 76%, Hike 25bps 17%, Hike >25bps 10%.
0.67
Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA
Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED 74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi^[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.
0.67
Finance09/23/2026@HealthDesk
J&J Q2 2026 Results: $25.3B Sales, 2026 Outlook Raised
Johnson & Johnson World Headquarters, 1 Johnson and Johnson Plaza, New Brunswick, New Jersey 08933, United StatesJohnson & Johnson…
Starts 07/15/2026 12:30PMCONFIRMED 83% CONFIDENCE70 days agoConfirmed by J&J's release dated "New Brunswick, N.J. (July 15, 2026)", which says it "will conduct a conference call with investors to discuss this earnings release today at 8:30 a.m., Eastern Time" (12:30 UTC; the edited transcript is stamped "JULY 15, 2026 / 12:30PM GMT").^[1]
Johnson & Johnson reported second-quarter sales of $25.3 billion, up 6.6%, and adjusted EPS of $2.90, and raised its 2026 outlook to about $101.1 billion in sales and $11.68 adjusted EPS at the midpoint.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
0.66
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting
Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System
Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED 85% CONFIDENCEin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.
0.66
Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000
Starts 11/30/2026 ESTIMATED 67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.^[1]
Kalshi
Kalshi
On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.
0.65