- Start
- Oct 14, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
BLS Publishes the September 2026 CPI Report
- The BLS release calendar schedules the Consumer Price Index for the September 2026 reference month on Oct. 14, 2026 at 08:30 AM, as it does every CPI release[2]
- Kalshi's KXCPIYOY-26SEP event settles on that release, each strike resolving on whether the Consumer Price Index rose by more than the strike "in the twelve months ending September 2026, as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics"[1]
- The market closes Oct 14, 2026 at 8:29am EDT, a minute before the release, with projected payout at 10:05am EDT; its header instead counts down to "Oct 14, 8:00am EDT"[1]
- At capture the strikes were Above 3.5% at 75% (80c yes / 28c no, down 12), Above 3.6% at 46% (47c / 54c, down 39) and Above 3.7% at 16% (16c / 85c, down 68), on $353,897 of volume, with the page's forecast dial reading 3.6% (+/-0.2)[1]
- The page shows the central strike two ways - 46% in the list against "Odds 49% chance" on the order ticket for the same 47c contract[1]
- All three strikes fell sharply on the day of capture, the 3.7% strike by 68 points, so the market had just moved decisively toward a lower print[1]
- The rules carry a shutdown clause: "In the case of a delay in data caused by a federal government shutdown impacting the reliability of the Source Agency, the market's latest Expiration Date will be extended to the sooner of the release of the Underlying or six months after the end of the government shutdown"[1]
- The market opened Jun 9, 2026 at 6:25pm EDT[1]
- The most recent print before this one was August 2026 CPI, released Sep. 11, 2026[2], which "shows inflation climbed 3.4% year over year in August, while a hotter-than-expected core reading pushed traders to increase their bets on a Fed rate hike"[4]
- The Fed had already moved: Bloomberg reported on Sep 19 that "The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023 and penciled in an additional hike before the end of the year"[1]
- The equivalent market for November 2026 CPI, settling on the Dec. 10, 2026 release, is priced higher still - Above 3.6% at 59%, Above 3.7% at 50% and Above 3.8% at 40% - so traders expect year-over-year inflation to keep climbing after September[2][3]
- That November market likewise shows "Odds 52% chance" on its ticket against 50% in its list, and opened Jun 10, 2026 at 1:20pm EDT[3]
- The BLS calendar itself carries no publication or last-updated date, and notes it "is updated as needed with additional news releases, usually at least a week before their scheduled publication date"[2]
References 479% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxcpiyoy/inflation/kxcpiyoy-26sepkalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Oct 14, 2026 ✓· 25% of score
The BLS[2] publishes its CPI release schedule a year ahead and puts the September 2026 report on October 14, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET; Kalshi[3] closes its September inflation market at 12:29 UTC that morning, minutes before the release.
- [2]95%BLS: Consumer Price Index release schedulebls.gov· Added Sep 20, 2026· 25% of score
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ own schedule page is what fixes the September 2026 CPI report to October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.[1]
- [3]75%Kalshi: Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 25% of score
The next liquid CPI event on Kalshi[1] shows where traders think the September print leads — above 3.7% at 50% in November — without dating this pin.
- [4]70%Real Estate News: Inflation Hits 3.4% as Fed Rate Decision Loomspodcasts.apple.com· Published Sep 15, 2026· 25% of score
The September 15, 2026 episode reports August CPI at 3.4% year over year with a hotter core reading, the print the September strikes on Kalshi[1][3] are anchored to.
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