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- Dec 31, 202950% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
NASA Lands Astronauts on the Moon Again
- Kalshi's "NASA lands on the moon?" market (series KXMOON, market MOON-29DEC31) prices a crewed NASA landing at 2.3% before 2028, 13% before 2029 and 47% before 2030 (Yes 47 cents / No 56 cents; the order ticket shows 49%), with 2 further brackets not captured[1]
- The Before 2030 contract "Resolves Yes if an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2029", with the outcome "verified from NASA"[1]
- The market opened Apr 7, 2026 at 12:00am EDT and closes after the outcome occurs (the following 10am ET), otherwise by Dec 31, 2029 at 10:00am EST, with payout 1 hour after closing[1]
- Kalshi's companion market on which country goes next has the United States at 55% (Yes 55.8 cents / No 47 cents; its order ticket shows 58%), China at 28.4% and India at 0.4%, on $159,261 of volume; if SpaceX "or another US-based company launches a manned mission to the Moon first then the market resolves to Yes for the United States"[2]
- That companion market expressly excludes Artemis II, "a crewed lunar flyby and systems-validation flight with no planned lunar surface operations", from its payout criterion[2]
- Background given by Kalshi: the last NASA crewed landing was Apollo 17 in December 1972, and Artemis aims to send "the first woman and the next man" to the Moon, though the programme "has faced delays and challenges, both technical and financial"[1]
- News carried on the market pages points at a late-2020s date: Fox Weather on Aug 25 reported "NASA is targeting 2028 to return astronauts to the moon", while SciTechDaily on Sep 17 described an Artemis III rehearsal involving Orion, SpaceX Starship, Blue Moon and three major rocket launches[1]
- The crewed flyby that precedes a landing has already flown: an April 16, 2026 podcast episode says "the Artemis Moon Mission, the first moon mission in over 50 years, landed safely back on Earth" that week, and Kalshi's page notes the Artemis II crew were honoured in August 2026 after "the first crewed mission around the moon in more than 50 years"[2][4]
References 466% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]50%kalshi.com/markets/kxmoon/nasa-lands-on-the-moon/moonkalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Dec 31, 2029 ✓· 28% of score
No landing date is set. The market’s heaviest year is 2029, which carries about 31 of the 44 points priced before 2030 (13% before 2029 rising to 44% before 2030), and a year-only date takes its last day. The 2027 and 2028 rungs are thinly traded and add under 3 points between them. The figures are the chance in the strike list; the order ticket reads 49% for the same before-2030 contract.
- [2]78%Kalshi: Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 28% of score
The companion market prices the United States at 55% and China at 28.4% to be next, which is the race this landing would settle.[1]
- [3]70%Kalshi: Will two SpaceX Starships dock together before 2028?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 28% of score
A crewed landing needs the Starship lander refuelled in orbit, and that market’s 69% before 2028 is the nearer milestone the 2029 timing rests on.[1]
- [4]66%Show Me the Science: The Science of the Artemis Moon Missionpodcasts.apple.com· Published Apr 16, 2026· 15% of score
The April 16, 2026 episode marks Artemis returning safely from the first crewed Moon mission in over 50 years, the flight that precedes the landing this market is priced on.[1]
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