The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
Polymarket's[2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
The balance-of-power market shares the November 3, 2026 date and is the national backdrop the governor’s race is voted alongside.[1]
NPR explains the mechanics the pin depends on: California's top-two primary closed on June 2, 2026 and narrowed "a crowded field of 62 candidates vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom" to the two on the November ballot.[1]
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Junta Electoral Central
