Will the US-Iran Ceasefire Last Through October 31?
ESTIMATED68% CONFIDENCEOctober 31 is the latest date on Polymarket's[1] ceasefire ladder, where traders price it at 46%; the ceasefire could end sooner.
Polymarket
Polymarket asks how long the fragile US-Iran ceasefire holds. On 20 September 2026 traders gave 97% that it survives September 20, 80% through September 30, and 46% through October 31, after a June memorandum stalled and Iran struck commercial vessels in July.