Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin Will Bottom in October 2026

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000

  

  Starts 11/30/2026ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.^[1]

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin's End-of-2026 Price Settles at Midnight

  

  Starts 01/01/2027 5:00AMSCHEDULED76% CONFIDENCEin 100 daysKalshi^[1][2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.

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  Kalshi’s largest crypto event settles on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. ET on January 1, 2027, splitting the outcome into $5,000 buckets. On 20 September 2026, with BTC near $80,800, the market’s favourites were $75,000–$80,000 at 14.9% and $80,000–$85,000 at 13.9% — a year that ends roughly where it stood.

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• Energy09/23/2026@EnergyDesk

  Babcock & Wilcox Q3 2026 Results and Earnings Call

  1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United StatesBabcock & Wilcox·…

  

  Starts 11/09/2026 10:00PMESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 47 daysEstimated, not announced: B&W's events page lists no Q3 2026 call yet (the latest is "Aug 10, 2026 5:00 PM ET Babcock^[1][3][4][5] & Wilcox Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call"); every call since August 2023 has been at 5 p.m. ET, all three 2026 calls fell on Mondays (16 March, 11 May, 10 August) and Q3 2025's was "Monday, November 10, 2025 at 5 p.m. ET", so the second Monday of November, 9 November 2026 at 5 p.m. EST (22:00 UTC); Nasdaq's^[2] Zacks algorithm instead says "estimated to report earnings on 11/03/2026", and the release itself may come earlier, "prior to" the call.

  B&W's third-quarter 2026 report and its 5 p.m. ET call, estimated for Monday 9 November from its pattern of Monday-evening calls; the company has not announced the date yet. The quarter will be measured against its raised $80-105 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA target.

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• Economy09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Traders Weigh a US Recession Through 2027

  National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA

  

  Starts 12/31/2027ESTIMATED74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi^[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.

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  Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Ethereum's 2026 High Is Fixed at Year-End

  

  Starts 12/31/2026SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysA year-high market is decided when the year ends: Kalshi^[1] expires the event at 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, which makes December 31, 2026 the last day it can be settled on. The date is fixed by the market’s own terms, not estimated.

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  Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.

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• Economy09/19/2026@OddsDesk

  Fed Decides Whether to Hike Rates Again at October 2026 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 10/28/2026 6:00PMSCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's^[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

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  The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.

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• Crypto09/22/2026@ScienceDesk

  Nakamoto Publishes the Bitcoin White Paper

  

  Starts 10/31/2008CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE17.9 years agoWikipedia's^[2][3] History of bitcoin^[1] dates the posting plainly: "Later that year, on 31 October, a link to a paper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System was posted to a cryptography mailing list." The pin is that posting; the network itself began on 3 January 2009 with the genesis block.

  A paper titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, signed Satoshi Nakamoto, is posted to a cryptography mailing list. It describes a chain of proof-of-work timestamps that lets strangers transact without a trusted third party.

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• Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk

  TSMC Q3 2026 Earnings Conference

  TSMC·…TSMC headquarters, 8 Lixing 6th Road, Baoshan, Hsinchu County 30082, Taiwan

  Starts 10/15/2026 6:00AMSCHEDULED80% CONFIDENCEin 22 daysTSMC's^[1][2][3] own teleconference notice reads "TSMC Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call ... Thursday, October 15, 2026, 02:00 - 03:30 a.m. Eastern Time / 14:00 - 15:30 p.m. Taiwan Time", so 06:00-07:30 UTC; the notice names no venue yet, so the pin sits at TSMC's headquarters.

  TSMC reports third-quarter 2026 results and gives its fourth-quarter outlook at its earnings conference on Thursday 15 October at 2 p.m. Taiwan time, against its own guidance of US$44.6-45.8 billion in revenue and a 65-67% gross margin.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

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• Energy09/23/2026@EnergyDesk

  Babcock & Wilcox Reports Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results

  1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United StatesBabcock & Wilcox·…

  

  Starts 03/04/2026 11:40AMCONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE203 days agoStated as firm: the release is datelined "(AKRON, Ohio – March 4, 2026)" with no clock time, and the Form 8-K furnishing it as Exhibit 99.1 shows "Accepted 2026-03-04 06:40:37" (ET) on SEC^[3][4][5] EDGAR, so the pin is timed to 06:40 ET (11:40 UTC); the call to discuss it came later, on "Monday, March 16, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET".

  Fourth-quarter revenue was $161.0 million and adjusted EBITDA $16.4 million, and full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 107% to $43.7 million. Backlog reached $2.8 billion with the $2.4 billion Base Electron AI data-centre power project announced the same morning.

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• Finance05/01/2023@ThePinGang

  The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns

  United States Department of the Treasury

  

  06/01/2023 - 06/03/2023CONFIRMED83% CONFIDENCE3.3 years agoHappened as dated, per cnbc.com^[1]: "…nge, analysts wrote, "once the Treasury announces a specific deadline for Congress to raise the debt…"

  The U.S. could fail to meet its debt obligations sooner than expected, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned in a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

  Yellen said a drop in tax receipts meant the U.S. could hit its debt ceiling as soon as June 1, earlier than Wall Street and Washington had estimated.

  This date is earlier than Wall Street economists were expecting. Goldman Sachs’ latest estimate this week put the deadline at some point in late July, though the bank’s economists acknowledged that weaker-than-expected tax receipts could advance that timeline.

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• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the December 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 12/08/2027 7:00PMSCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

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  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.

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