SCHEDULED76% CONFIDENCEKalshi[1][2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.
Kalshi’s largest crypto event settles on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. ET on January 1, 2027, splitting the outcome into $5,000 buckets. On 20 September 2026, with BTC near $80,800, the market’s favourites were $75,000–$80,000 at 14.9% and $80,000–$85,000 at 13.9% — a year that ends roughly where it stood.
Kalshi's KXBTCY-27JAN0100 event, "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026", settles on the price at midnight: each bracket "Resolves Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between [the bracket] at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027"[1]
The event splits the outcome into $5,000 brackets and is flagged "mutually exclusive", with $36,767,311 of volume - and no fees - at capture[1]
The brackets shown were 70,000-74,999.99 at 11.8% (12.1c yes / 88.1c no, down 1.2), 75,000-79,999.99 at 14.8% (15.2c / 85.2c, up 0.9) and 80,000-84,999.99 at 14.1% (14.2c / 85.9c, up 2.4)[1]
The page shows the favourite two ways - 14.8% in the market row against "Odds 15% chance" on the order ticket for the same 15.2c contract - and the ticket's "Max payout Dec 31, 2026" disagrees with the market's own close and payout dates of Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am and 12:06am EST[1]
Settlement is explicitly not a spot quote: "While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices"[1]
The market opened on Feb 25, 2026 at 6:25pm EST; its chart gridlines run 60K to 90K across April to September[1]
A companion Kalshi market, "How high will Bitcoin get this year?", prices the year's high rather than its close, and puts a 2026 peak above $99,999.99 at 28% (28c), above $109,999.99 at 14% and above $119,999.99 at 8%, on $4,724,025 of volume - it too shows a different figure on the ticket, "Odds 29% chance" against 28% in the list[2]
That market uses a different method from the year-end one: a trimmed mean of every minute's BRTI value from issuance to the target, "removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60%", resolving immediately if the threshold is crossed and resolving No if no data is available at expiration[2]
Bitcoin's level at the time of these captures is given as $80,741.20 by a related Kalshi market target[1] and as $80,900 by the podcast published September 18, 2026[3]
That episode argues the price sits at a decision point: "Bitcoin is at $80,900 and the 50-week moving average, the line that has confirmed every bull market, sits at $78.7K, so this week's close on Sunday decides it rather than today's candle"[3]
Its comparison is to early 2023: "$80K right now looks eerily like $25K in February 2023, the same rejection off the 50-week with the 200-day sitting 12% lower at $70K the way it sat at $20K back then", with the warning that "the 2023 breakout week came with one last liquidation down to the 200-day before the real move, which is why I'm 85% spot Bitcoin with no leverage until the weekly closes"[3]
The same notes record US policy moves alongside the price: "The Clarity Act is not dead at 17% odds through the Senate, up from 7% two days ago", the SEC innovation exemption going live that Thursday to let onchain venues trade tokenized US stocks with dividend and voting rights, and the CFTC sending its own crypto rulebook to the White House[3]
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Jan 1, 2027 ✓· 33% of score
Kalshi[2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.
The year-high ladder on the same exchange (28% of touching $100,000 again) is the upside companion to this closing-price market and settles on the same year.[1]
podcasts.apple.com· Published Sep 18, 2026· 33% of score
The September 18, 2026 episode puts Bitcoin at $80,900 against a 50-week moving average of $78.7K, which is the spot level the year-end buckets are centred on.[1]
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ESTIMATED72% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysCowen's own timeline, not a confirmed date: he expects the bottom about a year after the cycle's October 2025 top, the same gap as the prior two cycles, unless a deep capitulation event pulls it forward to around May 2026. He has separately named $40,000 - where Realized Price and Balanced Price converge - as the level he watches for that bottom.[1]
Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, argues Bitcoin's current cycle should bottom around October 2026 — about a year after its October 2025 peak near $126,000, matching the gap between top and bottom in each of Bitcoin's two prior cycles. He leaves room for an earlier low around May 2026 only if a sharp capitulation event pushes the year's returns well outside the range typical of past midterm-cycle years; CryptoQuant's on-chain models point to a similar September-November window.
ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.[1]
Kalshi
Kalshi
On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysA year-high market is decided when the year ends: Kalshi[1] expires the event at 05:00 UTC on January 1, 2027, which makes December 31, 2026 the last day it can be settled on. The date is fixed by the market’s own terms, not estimated.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s year-high ladder for Ethereum settles on the highest price ETH touches in 2026. On 20 September 2026, with ether near $2,600, traders gave $3,500 a 30% chance, $4,000 22% and $5,000 9%. Polymarket’s equivalent book was a little more optimistic, pricing a touch of $3,000 at 59.5%.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 77 daysThe Federal Reserve’s[2] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the December 8–9 meeting, and the statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi’s[1][4] market expires December 9, 2026 at 19:05 UTC and closes at 18:59 UTC, minutes before the announcement.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its final 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on December 9, the last of the year’s eight scheduled meetings. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi had a second consecutive quarter-point hike as the favourite at 67%, with a hold at 31% and cuts priced near zero; Polymarket agreed almost to the point.
1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United StatesBabcock & Wilcox·…
ESTIMATED69% CONFIDENCEin 47 daysEstimated, not announced: B&W's events page lists no Q3 2026 call yet (the latest is "Aug 10, 2026 5:00 PM ET Babcock[1][3][4][5] & Wilcox Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call"); every call since August 2023 has been at 5 p.m. ET, all three 2026 calls fell on Mondays (16 March, 11 May, 10 August) and Q3 2025's was "Monday, November 10, 2025 at 5 p.m. ET", so the second Monday of November, 9 November 2026 at 5 p.m. EST (22:00 UTC); Nasdaq's[2] Zacks algorithm instead says "estimated to report earnings on 11/03/2026", and the release itself may come earlier, "prior to" the call.
B&W's third-quarter 2026 report and its 5 p.m. ET call, estimated for Monday 9 November from its pattern of Monday-evening calls; the company has not announced the date yet. The quarter will be measured against its raised $80-105 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA target.
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 1.2 yearsThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "December 7-8" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its December 7-8 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 73%, Cut 25bps 13%, Hike 25bps 6%.
CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE17.9 years agoWikipedia's[2][3] History of bitcoin[1] dates the posting plainly: "Later that year, on 31 October, a link to a paper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System was posted to a cryptography mailing list." The pin is that posting; the network itself began on 3 January 2009 with the genesis block.
A paper titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, signed Satoshi Nakamoto, is posted to a cryptography mailing list. It describes a chain of proof-of-work timestamps that lets strangers transact without a trusted third party.
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA
ESTIMATED74% CONFIDENCEin 1.3 yearsThe market asks only whether the two negative quarters fall anywhere between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, so there is no single day to hang it on; by the convention for a year-only date the pin takes the last day of 2027. Kalshi[1][3] does not expire it until January 31, 2028, when the advance estimate for Q4 2027 is due. The 25% is the chance on Kalshi’s trade panel, which sits beside a 24¢ Yes price.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Kalshi’s recession market for 2027 prices the chance of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027, on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimates — despite the KXRECSSNBER ticker, no NBER call is involved. On 20 September 2026 it sat at 25%, its 2026 contract at 6%, and Polymarket’s cumulative "recession by end of 2027" book, which also counts an NBER announcement, was higher still at 34.5%.
ESTIMATED75% CONFIDENCEin 280 daysNVIDIA's[3] 8-K says "The transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to the satisfaction or waiver of customary closing conditions, including receipt of required regulatory approvals"; the span is dated at its last day, 30 June 2027.
NVIDIA expects to complete its roughly $11.9 billion purchase of Hugging Face in the first half of 2027, once regulators approve the deal.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve
SCHEDULED78% CONFIDENCEin 35 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2][5] published 2026 FOMC calendar lists the October 27-28 meeting, and the policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day; Kalshi's[1] market strikes on October 28, 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Kalshi
The Federal Open Market Committee announces its October 2026 rate decision at 2:00 p.m. ET on October 28, six weeks after raising the federal funds target range a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, its first hike since 2023. On 19 September 2026 Kalshi traders were split between holding the rate and a second 25bp hike, with cuts priced near zero.
SCHEDULED85% CONFIDENCEin 357 daysThe Federal Reserve's[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".
Kalshi
The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.
1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United StatesBabcock & Wilcox·…
CONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE203 days agoStated as firm: the release is datelined "(AKRON, Ohio – March 4, 2026)" with no clock time, and the Form 8-K furnishing it as Exhibit 99.1 shows "Accepted 2026-03-04 06:40:37" (ET) on SEC[3][4][5] EDGAR, so the pin is timed to 06:40 ET (11:40 UTC); the call to discuss it came later, on "Monday, March 16, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET".
Fourth-quarter revenue was $161.0 million and adjusted EBITDA $16.4 million, and full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA rose 107% to $43.7 million. Backlog reached $2.8 billion with the $2.4 billion Base Electron AI data-centre power project announced the same morning.
