- Start
- Oct 9, 202675% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Norwegian Nobel Committee Names the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize Winner
- The Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST, from the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo[2][3][4]
- It is the only one of the six 2026 Nobel announcements whose time is given without the hedge ‘at the earliest’; the others run 5-12 October[2]
- The Kalshi market lists the same moment as ‘Oct 9, 5:00am EDT’, with settlement dated Dec 31, 2026[1]
- There are 287 candidates: 208 individuals and 79 organizations, per the Committee’s press release of 30 Apr 2026[4]
- Wikipedia states the split slightly differently as ‘208 candidates and 79 organisations have been nominated’, and cites a Reuters item headed ‘Some 287 nominated for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, Trump likely among them’ — the Committee’s own release is the authority on the count[3][4]
- Kalshi has no clear favourite: Doctors Without Borders at 13% (up 2), Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 12% and Save the Children at 11%, on $1,072,760 of volume, with more markets not shown in the capture[1]
- Kalshi’s own table is internally inconsistent on two of those: Emergency Response Rooms shows a 12% chance against a 11¢ Yes price, and Save the Children an 11% chance against a 12¢ Yes price[1]
- Two of the three Kalshi front-runners are publicly reported nominees: Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, nominated by the Peace Research Institute Oslo for its volunteer-led grassroots network providing food, medical care and evacuation during the 2023-2026 Sudanese civil war, and Save the Children, nominated by the same institute jointly with Mykola Kuleba ‘for rescuing Ukrainian children’[1][3]
- Nominations are secret, but Norwegian parliamentarians and academics may publicise their own choices; publicly reported names include Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine, Francesca Albanese, Greta Thunberg, Maia Sandu, Yulia Navalnaya and Pope Leo XIV, and organizations including UNRWA, Yad Vashem, the World Trade Organisation and the city of Minneapolis[3]
- The Committee cautions that names in the media ‘may come from people claiming to have nominated, or be speculation’, and that proposals and opinions ‘may not be divulged until 50 years have elapsed’[4]
- Nominations closed on 31 January; the Committee added further names and set a short-list at its first meeting, held on 26 February 2026[4]
- The prize is worth 9.0 million SEK and is awarded at the ceremony in Oslo on 10 December 2026; the 2025 laureate was Maria Corina Machado[3][4]
References 586% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxnobelpeace/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/kxnobelpeace-26kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Oct 9, 2026 ✓· 23% of score
NobelPrize.org[2][5]'s announcement schedule and the Nobel Peace Center put the Peace Prize announcement on Friday 9 October 2026 at 11:00 CEST (09:00 UTC).
- [2]95%Prize announcement dates - NobelPrize.orgnobelprize.org· Added Sep 20, 2026· 23% of score
The Nobel Foundation's own schedule lists the 2026 announcements from 5 to 12 October, with the Peace Prize on 9 October.[1]
- [3]80%2026 Nobel Peace Prize - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org· Added Sep 20, 2026· 23% of score
Gives the 11:00 CEST announcement time and the 287 nominees (208 individuals, 79 organizations).[1]
- [4]90%Nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize 2026nobelpeaceprize.org· Added Sep 20, 2026· 23% of score
The Norwegian Nobel Committee's press release confirms the size of the 2026 nomination field.[1]
- [5]95%The 2026 Nobel Prize announcements - press release from the Nobel Foundationnobelprize.org· Published Feb 2, 2026· 9% of score
The February 2026 press release fixing the date, hour and venue: Store Sal, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, Henrik Ibsens gate 51, Oslo.[1]
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