SCHEDULED76% CONFIDENCEKalshi[1][2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.
- Start
- Jan 1, 202775% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Bitcoin's End-of-2026 Price Settles at Midnight
Kalshi’s largest crypto event settles on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. ET on January 1, 2027, splitting the outcome into $5,000 buckets. On 20 September 2026, with BTC near $80,800, the market’s favourites were $75,000–$80,000 at 14.9% and $80,000–$85,000 at 13.9% — a year that ends roughly where it stood.
- Kalshi's KXBTCY-27JAN0100 event, "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026", settles on the price at midnight: each bracket "Resolves Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between [the bracket] at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027"[1]
- The event splits the outcome into $5,000 brackets and is flagged "mutually exclusive", with $36,767,311 of volume - and no fees - at capture[1]
- The brackets shown were 70,000-74,999.99 at 11.8% (12.1c yes / 88.1c no, down 1.2), 75,000-79,999.99 at 14.8% (15.2c / 85.2c, up 0.9) and 80,000-84,999.99 at 14.1% (14.2c / 85.9c, up 2.4)[1]
- The page shows the favourite two ways - 14.8% in the market row against "Odds 15% chance" on the order ticket for the same 15.2c contract - and the ticket's "Max payout Dec 31, 2026" disagrees with the market's own close and payout dates of Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am and 12:06am EST[1]
- Settlement is explicitly not a spot quote: "While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices"[1]
- The market opened on Feb 25, 2026 at 6:25pm EST; its chart gridlines run 60K to 90K across April to September[1]
- A companion Kalshi market, "How high will Bitcoin get this year?", prices the year's high rather than its close, and puts a 2026 peak above $99,999.99 at 28% (28c), above $109,999.99 at 14% and above $119,999.99 at 8%, on $4,724,025 of volume - it too shows a different figure on the ticket, "Odds 29% chance" against 28% in the list[2]
- That market uses a different method from the year-end one: a trimmed mean of every minute's BRTI value from issuance to the target, "removing the top 20% and bottom 20% of values, then averaging the remaining 60%", resolving immediately if the threshold is crossed and resolving No if no data is available at expiration[2]
- Bitcoin's level at the time of these captures is given as $80,741.20 by a related Kalshi market target[1] and as $80,900 by the podcast published September 18, 2026[3]
- That episode argues the price sits at a decision point: "Bitcoin is at $80,900 and the 50-week moving average, the line that has confirmed every bull market, sits at $78.7K, so this week's close on Sunday decides it rather than today's candle"[3]
- Its comparison is to early 2023: "$80K right now looks eerily like $25K in February 2023, the same rejection off the 50-week with the 200-day sitting 12% lower at $70K the way it sat at $20K back then", with the warning that "the 2023 breakout week came with one last liquidation down to the 200-day before the real move, which is why I'm 85% spot Bitcoin with no leverage until the weekly closes"[3]
- The same notes record US policy moves alongside the price: "The Clarity Act is not dead at 17% odds through the Senate, up from 7% two days ago", the SEC innovation exemption going live that Thursday to let onchain venues trade tokenized US stocks with dividend and voting rights, and the CFTC sending its own crypto rulebook to the White House[3]
References 376% CONFIDENCE
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]75%kalshi.com/markets/kxbtcy/btc-price-range-eoy/kxbtcy-27jan0100kalshi.com· Posted Sep 20, 2026· Starts Jan 1, 2027 ✓· 33% of score
Kalshi[2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.
- [2]80%Kalshi: How high will Bitcoin get in 2026?kalshi.com· Added Sep 20, 2026· 33% of score
The year-high ladder on the same exchange (28% of touching $100,000 again) is the upside companion to this closing-price market and settles on the same year.[1]
- [3]72%VirtualBacon: Bitcoin At $80K Looks Exactly Like February 2023podcasts.apple.com· Published Sep 18, 2026· 33% of score
The September 18, 2026 episode puts Bitcoin at $80,900 against a 50-week moving average of $78.7K, which is the spot level the year-end buckets are centred on.[1]
Suggest a correction
Something missing or wrong? Say it in your own words: a link that backs this pin up, a different start or end date and why, or a fact it lacks or gets wrong. The AI checks it against this pin's sources, searches for better ones, and adds any page that backs you up. The pin's own sources still count most.
