Nakamoto Publishes the Bitcoin White Paper

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• Crypto09/17/2026@MarketDesk

  Benjamin Cowen Predicts Bitcoin Will Bottom in October 2026

  

  Starts 10/01/2026ESTIMATED72% CONFIDENCEin 8 daysCowen's own timeline, not a confirmed date: he expects the bottom about a year after the cycle's October 2025 top, the same gap as the prior two cycles, unless a deep capitulation event pulls it forward to around May 2026. He has separately named $40,000 - where Realized Price and Balanced Price converge - as the level he watches for that bottom.^[1]

  Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse and a former NASA researcher, argues Bitcoin's current cycle should bottom around October 2026 — about a year after its October 2025 peak near $126,000, matching the gap between top and bottom in each of Bitcoin's two prior cycles. He leaves room for an earlier low around May 2026 only if a sharp capitulation event pushes the year's returns well outside the range typical of past midterm-cycle years; CryptoQuant's on-chain models point to a similar September-November window.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin's End-of-2026 Price Settles at Midnight

  

  Starts 01/01/2027 5:00AMSCHEDULED76% CONFIDENCEin 100 daysKalshi^[1][2] settles the event on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. EST on January 1, 2027 (05:00 UTC), which is a fixed settlement instant rather than an estimate.

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  Kalshi’s largest crypto event settles on Bitcoin’s price at 12:00 a.m. ET on January 1, 2027, splitting the outcome into $5,000 buckets. On 20 September 2026, with BTC near $80,800, the market’s favourites were $75,000–$80,000 at 14.9% and $80,000–$85,000 at 13.9% — a year that ends roughly where it stood.

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• Crypto09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $100,000

  

  Starts 11/30/2026ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysThis is a "by when" ladder with monthly rungs, not a scheduled event. November 2026 is the month the market prices highest (10% by November 1 rising to 23% by December 1, a 13-point month against 9 for October and 3 for December), and a month-only date takes its last day. The market gives the crossing only 26% before 2027 at all.^[1]

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s "when will Bitcoin cross $100k again" ladder gave the whole of 2026 only a 26% chance, and the single likeliest month was November: the book jumped from 10% by November 1 to 23% by December 1. With BTC near $80,800 that was a 24% move traders mostly did not expect this year.

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• Finance09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  OpenAI Announces an IPO

  OpenAI, 1455 3rd St, San Francisco, CAOpenAI

  

  Starts 02/28/2027ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 158 daysA "by when" market with no scheduled event behind it. February 2027 carries the largest month-on-month jump among the rungs below that block — 12% before February 1 rising to 39% before March 1, 27 points — and a month-only date takes its last day. The April strike (70%) is quoted above both May (49%) and June (61%), so the top of the ladder is out of order and was not used. All figures are the chance the strike list shows, not the Yes price in cents.^[1]

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi put an official OpenAI IPO announcement at 5% before January 2027, 12% before February and 39% before March — a 27-point jump across February. The upper rungs did not run in order: the page showed 70% before April, then 49% before May and 61% before June.

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• Energy09/23/2026@EnergyDesk

  Babcock & Wilcox Reports Q1 2026 Results, Revenue Up 44%

  Babcock & Wilcox·…1200, East Market Street, East End, Goodyear Heights, Akron, Summit County, Ohio, 44305, United States

  Starts 05/11/2026 10:04AMCONFIRMED85% CONFIDENCE135 days agoStated as firm: the release is datelined "(AKRON, Ohio – May 11, 2026)" with no clock time; the Form 8-K furnishing it (Item 2.02) shows "Accepted 2026-05-11 06:04:10" (ET) on SEC^[4][5] EDGAR and Yahoo^[6] Finance reports shares "surged more than 11% in premarket trading on Monday", so the pin is timed to 06:04 ET (10:04 UTC), ahead of the "Monday, May 11, 2026 at 5 p.m. ET" call.

  First-quarter revenue rose 44% to $214.4 million and adjusted EBITDA rose 296% to $16.1 million, while $81.8 million of non-cash warrant and stock costs left a $79.6 million net loss. Backlog stood at $2.7 billion and the pipeline passed $14 billion.

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• Telecom09/22/2026@ScienceDesk

  Shannon Publishes A Mathematical Theory of Communication

  Murray Hill, New Providence, Union County, New Jersey, 07974, United StatesBell Labs

  

  Starts 07/31/1948ESTIMATED75% CONFIDENCE78.1 years agoThe paper's own reprint header gives the issue and no day: "Reprinted with corrections from The Bell System Technical Journal, Vol. 27, pp. 379-423, 623-656, July, October, 1948." It ran in two parts, July and October; a month with no day is estimated at that month's last day, so the pin sits at the end of July 1948, the first part.^[1]

  Claude Shannon's paper appears in the Bell System Technical Journal, defining the bit, channel capacity and entropy, and founding information theory. Every modem, codec and error-correcting code since rests on it.

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• Finance09/20/2026@OddsDesk

  Anthropic Announces an IPO

  Anthropic, 500 Howard St, San Francisco, CAAnthropic

  

  Starts 11/30/2026ESTIMATED67% CONFIDENCEin 68 daysNothing has been scheduled: this is a "by when" market. November 2026 is the month it prices highest — the ladder rises from 9% before November 1 to 50% before December 1, a 41-point month against 24 for December — and a month-only date takes its last day.^[1]

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  On 20 September 2026 Kalshi’s Anthropic IPO ladder went from a 9% chance of an announcement before November 1 to 50% before December 1, putting 41 points of probability on November 2026 alone — by far the single likeliest month. By April 2027 the market had the announcement at 91%.

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• Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk

  TSMC Starts Volume Production of 2nm (N2) Chips in Kaohsiung

  TSMC·…TSMC Fab22 P1, 園區北路, Nanzi District, Kaohsiung 811, Taiwan

  Starts 12/31/2025ESTIMATED73% CONFIDENCE266 days agoTSMC's^[1][2] 2nm page says N2 "has started volume production in 4Q25 as planned" and its 2025 annual report that it "entered high volume manufacturing in 4Q'25"; neither names the day, so the quarter's last day stands in.

  TSMC's first nanosheet-transistor node, N2, entered volume production in the fourth quarter of 2025 as planned, starting at Fab 22 in Kaohsiung, with Fab 20 in Hsinchu as its second 2nm fab.

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• Architecture09/15/2026@BuildDesk

  JPMorgan Chase Opens Its New 270 Park Avenue Headquarters

  270 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10017, USAJPMorgan Chase

  

  Starts 10/21/2025CONFIRMED89% CONFIDENCE337 days agoHappened as dated, per the source^[1]: "JPMorganChase^[2] officially opened its new global headquarters at 270 Park Avenue."

  JPMorgan Chase held a ribbon-cutting for its new Norman Foster-designed global headquarters, a supertall replacement for the demolished Union Carbide Building.

  $4B

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• Semiconductors06/21/2017@ThePinGang

  In December last year TSMC started to work on its 5nm process

  TSMC

  

  Starts 03/31/2020CONFIRMED79% CONFIDENCE6.5 years agoHappened as dated, per hexus.net^[1]: "…progress of these plans, with a target launch date set for H1 2020. Now a recent report suggests th…"

  In December last year TSMC started to work on its 5nm process. In the following January we heard from the firm's CEO about the progress of these plans, with a target launch date set for H1 2020. Now a recent report suggests that TSMC is confident of reaching its previously publicised goals, as it has started to allocate between 300 and 400 R&D staff to work on developing its 3nm process.

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• Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk

  US and Taiwan Sign a $250 Billion Chip Investment Deal

  TSMC·…U.S. Department of Commerce, 1401 Constitution Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC 20230, United States

  Starts 01/15/2026CONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE251 days agoCNBC^[1], published 15 January 2026: 'The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade agreement ... the Department of Commerce announced Thursday'; USTR's^[2] February fact sheet dates the 'Memorandum of Understanding signed by AIT and TECRO on January 15, 2026'. No signing time is given, so it is an all-day date.

  A memorandum signed in Washington commits Taiwanese chipmakers such as TSMC to at least $250 billion of new US investment plus $250 billion in Taiwan credit guarantees, in return for a 15% tariff cap and Section 232 chip-tariff exemptions for companies building US fabs.

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• AI09/22/2026@ScienceDesk

  DeepMind Publishes the AlphaFold 2 Paper

  DeepMind, Handyside Street, King's Cross, London Borough of Camden, Greater London, England, N1C 4BP, United KingdomDeepMind

  

  Starts 07/15/2021CONFIRMED87% CONFIDENCE5.2 years agoNature's^[1] own page for the article gives citation_online_date 2021/07/15 and shows "15 July 2021", and Wikipedia^[2][3] says the same: "On 15 July 2021, the AlphaFold 2 paper was published in Nature as an advance access publication alongside open source software and a searchable database of species proteomes." The print issue is dated August 2021.

  Nature publishes Highly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold, alongside open-source code and a database of predicted proteomes. Protein structure prediction stops being a bottleneck for drug discovery.

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