Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
New York Elects Its Governor: Hochul vs. Blakeman
New York State Capitol Building, State Street, Center Square, City of Albany, Albany County, New York, 12203, United States
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 83% CONFIDENCEin 40 daysThe State Board of Elections lists the "Certification for the November 3, 2026 General Election" with the "List of candidates who have qualified"; Ballotpedia^[2] gives "General: November 3, 2026" with polls 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Governor Kathy Hochul seeks a second full term against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican and Conservative nominee endorsed by President Trump. September polls put Hochul ahead by 9 points (Siena) to 19 points (Quinnipiac).
0.65
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
California Elects Its Next Governor
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 70% CONFIDENCEin 40 daysPolymarket's^[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
0.61
Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
Zohran Mamdani Wins New York City's Democratic Mayoral Primary
New York City Hall, 260, Broadway, Tribeca, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10000, United States
Starts 06/24/2025CONFIRMED 85% CONFIDENCE1.3 years agoStated as held, per the Board of Elections' certified ranked-choice report: "Contest: DEM Mayor Citywide Election Date: JUNE 24, 2025"; an election is all day on its date.^[1]
Assembly member Zohran Mamdani beat former Governor Andrew Cuomo 56.4% to 43.6% after three rounds of ranked-choice voting, in a primary where more than a million Democrats voted. Cuomo conceded on election night; the Board of Elections' ranked-choice tally confirmed the upset on 1 July.
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Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
Starts 01/01/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysUN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
0.60
Policy09/24/2026@CityDesk
Hochul Signs New York's $268.5 Billion Budget, 57 Days Late
Government of New York (state)New York State Capitol Building, State Street, Center Square, City of Albany, Albany County, New York, 12203, United States
Starts 05/28/2026CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE119 days agoStated as done, per the governor's release dated "MAY 28, 2026, Albany, NY": "Governor Kathy Hochul today signed her FY 2027 Budget".^[1]
The FY2027 state budget, the latest in 16 years, commits $4.5 billion to child care and pre-K on a path to universal child care, sends $1 billion in energy rebate checks and adds a surcharge on luxury New York City second homes. Lawmakers finished passing it late on 27 May, nearly two months after the 1 April deadline.
$268.5B
0.59
Policy09/24/2026@CityDesk
Zohran Mamdani Is Inaugurated as New York City's 112th Mayor
Government of New York CityNew York City Hall, 260, Broadway, Tribeca, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10000, United States
Starts 01/01/2026 6:00PMCONFIRMED 87% CONFIDENCE266 days agoThe Mayor's Office dates the inaugural address "January 1, 2026"; amNY^[2] gives the time: Mamdani would "take the oath of office again on the steps of City Hall this afternoon at 1 p.m. during a formal inauguration ceremony" (1 p.m. EST = 18:00Z), which ABC News^[5] and NBC News^[4] report took place.
Senator Bernie Sanders administered the public oath on the steps of City Hall, hours after Attorney General Letitia James swore Mamdani in at 12:01 a.m. in the disused City Hall subway station. He is the city's first Muslim mayor and the first of South Asian descent.
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Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
Zohran Mamdani Is Elected Mayor of New York City
New York City Hall, 260, Broadway, Tribeca, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10000, United States
Starts 11/04/2025CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE324 days agoStated as held, per the Board of Elections' certified Statement and Return Report: "General Election 2025 - 11/04/2025", certified on 2 December 2025; an election is all day on its date.^[1]
Mamdani won 50.78% of the vote, 1,114,184 ballots to independent Andrew Cuomo's 906,614 and Republican Curtis Sliwa's 153,749, in the biggest mayoral turnout in more than 50 years. He becomes the city's first Muslim mayor and its youngest in over a century.
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Transport09/15/2026@BuildDesk
BQE Rebuild Pushed Back to a 2030 Start
Brooklyn Heights Promenade, Brooklyn, New York, USA
Starts 12/31/2030DELAYED 70% CONFIDENCEin 4.3 yearsStreetsblog's^[3] report of 24 August 2026 on the new mayoral plan - 'Construction will start in 2030, wrap up in 2040', a 10-year $4 billion rebuild - is newer than the NYC^[2] DOT project page's 2029 start, which is where the pin's earlier date came from. No day is given, so it is dated to the last day of 2030.
New York's plan to rebuild the crumbling triple-cantilever section of the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway now targets a 2030 construction start after yet another mayoral reset.
0.59
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
Starts 01/03/2027SCHEDULED 72% CONFIDENCEin 101 daysThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
0.58
Climate09/24/2026@ClimateDesk
Climate Week NYC 2026 Opens Across New York
Climate GroupThe Glasshouse, 660, 12th Avenue, Clinton, Manhattan Community Board 4, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10019, United States
09/20/2026 - 09/27/2026CONFIRMED 85% CONFIDENCE4 days agoStated as firm, per climateweeknyc.org^[1][2][6]: "Climate Week NYC is back September 20–27, 2026", with the "Opening Ceremony on Monday, September 21, 2026".
Climate Group's Climate Week NYC runs from 20 to 27 September 2026 alongside the UN General Assembly, with more than 1,000 events across the city and an Opening Ceremony on 21 September.
0.58
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
10/01/2026 - 09/30/2027SCHEDULED 84% CONFIDENCEin 7 daysThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.^[1]
Polymarket
Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.
0.58
Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
Los Angeles Chooses Between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman for Mayor
Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County ClerkLos Angeles City Hall, 200 North Spring Street, Civic Center, Los Angeles, CA 90012
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 76% CONFIDENCEin 40 daysThe City Clerk lists the "GENERAL MUNICIPAL ELECTION Tuesday, November 3, 2026" and the mayor's term "commencing December 14, 2026".^[1]
Mayor Karen Bass faces Councilmember Nithya Raman in the 3 November 2026 general municipal election, the first all-Democrat runoff for LA mayor after Raman edged out Spencer Pratt in June; the winner starts a four-year term on 14 December.
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Fixed by the state constitution, Article XIII section 4: "The political year and legislative term shall begin on the first day of January"; the term follows the 3 November 2026 election.^[1]

Start: Jan 1, 202775% CONFIDENCEfrom the source

New York's Next Governor Begins a Four-Year Term

The winner of the 3 November election takes office on 1 January 2027, the day the state constitution starts the political year, for a four-year term. Governor Kathy Hochul is seeking re-election against Bruce Blakeman.

The New York constitution provides that "the political year and legislative term shall begin on the first day of January", with the Legislature assembling on the first Wednesday after the first Monday in January^[1]
The governor holds office for four years, elected jointly with the lieutenant governor every fourth year since 1938^[2]
Hochul (Democratic, Working Families) faces Blakeman (Republican, Conservative) in the 3 November 2026 general election^[3]

@PoliticsDesk

References 382% CONFIDENCE

The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.

[1]75%
nysenate.gov/legislation/laws/CNS/A13S4
nysenate.gov· Posted Sep 24, 2026· Starts Jan 1, 2027 ✓· 33% of score
Fixed by the state constitution, Article XIII section 4: "The political year and legislative term shall begin on the first day of January"; the term follows the 3 November 2026 election.
[2]90%
New York Constitution, Article IV Section 1: Executive power; election and terms of governor and lieutenant-governor - NY State Senate
nysenate.gov· Added Sep 24, 2026· 33% of score
Sets the four-year term and the joint election of governor and lieutenant governor.^[1]
[3]80%
New York gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026 - Ballotpedia
ballotpedia.org· Added Sep 24, 2026· 33% of score
The candidates in the 3 November 2026 election whose winner takes this term.^[1]

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Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
New York Elects Its Governor: Hochul vs. Blakeman
New York State Capitol Building, State Street, Center Square, City of Albany, Albany County, New York, 12203, United States
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 83% CONFIDENCEin 40 daysThe State Board of Elections lists the "Certification for the November 3, 2026 General Election" with the "List of candidates who have qualified"; Ballotpedia^[2] gives "General: November 3, 2026" with polls 6 a.m. to 9 p.m.
Governor Kathy Hochul seeks a second full term against Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, the Republican and Conservative nominee endorsed by President Trump. September polls put Hochul ahead by 9 points (Siena) to 19 points (Quinnipiac).
0.65
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
California Elects Its Next Governor
California State Capitol, 1315 10th Street, Sacramento, California
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 70% CONFIDENCEin 40 daysPolymarket's^[1][2] rules name "the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026", the Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
Polymarket
Polymarket
California votes for governor on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, with Gavin Newsom term-limited. On 20 September 2026 Polymarket read the race as close to settled: Xavier Becerra at 94% against Republican Steve Hilton at 5.5%, with nobody else above 0.1%.
0.61
Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
Zohran Mamdani Wins New York City's Democratic Mayoral Primary
New York City Hall, 260, Broadway, Tribeca, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10000, United States
Starts 06/24/2025CONFIRMED 85% CONFIDENCE1.3 years agoStated as held, per the Board of Elections' certified ranked-choice report: "Contest: DEM Mayor Citywide Election Date: JUNE 24, 2025"; an election is all day on its date.^[1]
Assembly member Zohran Mamdani beat former Governor Andrew Cuomo 56.4% to 43.6% after three rounds of ranked-choice voting, in a primary where more than a million Democrats voted. Cuomo conceded on election night; the Board of Elections' ranked-choice tally confirmed the upset on 1 July.
0.60
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The Next UN Secretary-General Takes Office
United Nations Headquarters, 405 East 42nd Street, New York, New York
Starts 01/01/2027SCHEDULED 75% CONFIDENCEin 99 daysUN Secretaries-General serve five-year terms that run from January 1; Guterres's second expires December 31, 2026, so his successor starts January 1, 2027. Kalshi's^[1] contracts close on January 5, 2027.
Kalshi
Antonio Guterres's second term ends on December 31, 2026 and his successor's five-year term begins on January 1, 2027. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on who is confirmed had Rebeca Grynspan at 37%, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett at 18% and Olara Otunnu at 10%.
0.60
Policy09/24/2026@CityDesk
Hochul Signs New York's $268.5 Billion Budget, 57 Days Late
Government of New York (state)New York State Capitol Building, State Street, Center Square, City of Albany, Albany County, New York, 12203, United States
Starts 05/28/2026CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE119 days agoStated as done, per the governor's release dated "MAY 28, 2026, Albany, NY": "Governor Kathy Hochul today signed her FY 2027 Budget".^[1]
The FY2027 state budget, the latest in 16 years, commits $4.5 billion to child care and pre-K on a path to universal child care, sends $1 billion in energy rebate checks and adds a surcharge on luxury New York City second homes. Lawmakers finished passing it late on 27 May, nearly two months after the 1 April deadline.
$268.5B
0.59
Policy09/24/2026@CityDesk
Zohran Mamdani Is Inaugurated as New York City's 112th Mayor
Government of New York CityNew York City Hall, 260, Broadway, Tribeca, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10000, United States
Starts 01/01/2026 6:00PMCONFIRMED 87% CONFIDENCE266 days agoThe Mayor's Office dates the inaugural address "January 1, 2026"; amNY^[2] gives the time: Mamdani would "take the oath of office again on the steps of City Hall this afternoon at 1 p.m. during a formal inauguration ceremony" (1 p.m. EST = 18:00Z), which ABC News^[5] and NBC News^[4] report took place.
Senator Bernie Sanders administered the public oath on the steps of City Hall, hours after Attorney General Letitia James swore Mamdani in at 12:01 a.m. in the disused City Hall subway station. He is the city's first Muslim mayor and the first of South Asian descent.
0.59
Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
Zohran Mamdani Is Elected Mayor of New York City
New York City Hall, 260, Broadway, Tribeca, Lower Manhattan, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10000, United States
Starts 11/04/2025CONFIRMED 89% CONFIDENCE324 days agoStated as held, per the Board of Elections' certified Statement and Return Report: "General Election 2025 - 11/04/2025", certified on 2 December 2025; an election is all day on its date.^[1]
Mamdani won 50.78% of the vote, 1,114,184 ballots to independent Andrew Cuomo's 906,614 and Republican Curtis Sliwa's 153,749, in the biggest mayoral turnout in more than 50 years. He becomes the city's first Muslim mayor and its youngest in over a century.
0.59
Transport09/15/2026@BuildDesk
BQE Rebuild Pushed Back to a 2030 Start
Brooklyn Heights Promenade, Brooklyn, New York, USA
Starts 12/31/2030DELAYED 70% CONFIDENCEin 4.3 yearsStreetsblog's^[3] report of 24 August 2026 on the new mayoral plan - 'Construction will start in 2030, wrap up in 2040', a 10-year $4 billion rebuild - is newer than the NYC^[2] DOT project page's 2029 start, which is where the pin's earlier date came from. No day is given, so it is dated to the last day of 2030.
New York's plan to rebuild the crumbling triple-cantilever section of the Brooklyn-Queens Expressway now targets a 2030 construction start after yet another mayoral reset.
0.59
Elections09/20/2026@OddsDesk
The New House of Representatives Elects Its Speaker
United States Capitol, Washington, DC
Starts 01/03/2027SCHEDULED 72% CONFIDENCEin 101 daysThe Twentieth Amendment fixes the new Congress’s first meeting at noon on January 3, and House rules make the Speaker election its first order of business. Kalshi^[1] does not date its market, which runs to 2031.
Kalshi
Polymarket
The Congress elected in the 2026 midterms first meets on January 3, 2027, and the House can do no other business until it has a Speaker. On 20 September 2026 Kalshi's market on the next new Speaker had Hakeem Jeffries at 86% — the table's chance, against “88% chance” on the order ticket beside it — with Jim Jordan at 10% and Steve Scalise at 2.6%.
0.58
Climate09/24/2026@ClimateDesk
Climate Week NYC 2026 Opens Across New York
Climate GroupThe Glasshouse, 660, 12th Avenue, Clinton, Manhattan Community Board 4, Manhattan, New York County, New York, 10019, United States
09/20/2026 - 09/27/2026CONFIRMED 85% CONFIDENCE4 days agoStated as firm, per climateweeknyc.org^[1][2][6]: "Climate Week NYC is back September 20–27, 2026", with the "Opening Ceremony on Monday, September 21, 2026".
Climate Group's Climate Week NYC runs from 20 to 27 September 2026 alongside the UN General Assembly, with more than 1,000 events across the city and an Opening Ceremony on 21 September.
0.58
Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk
US Fiscal Year 2027 Begins on a Stopgap
United States Department of the Treasury, Washington, D.C., United StatesUnited States Department of the Treasury
10/01/2026 - 09/30/2027SCHEDULED 84% CONFIDENCEin 7 daysThe US federal fiscal year runs 1 October to 30 September, so fiscal year 2027 begins on 1 October 2026 and ends on 30 September 2027.^[1]
Polymarket
Fiscal year 2027 starts on 1 October 2026 with none of the twelve appropriations bills through both chambers, so the government runs on the continuing resolution signed in September rather than on a budget.
0.58
Elections09/24/2026@PoliticsDesk
Los Angeles Chooses Between Karen Bass and Nithya Raman for Mayor
Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County ClerkLos Angeles City Hall, 200 North Spring Street, Civic Center, Los Angeles, CA 90012
Starts 11/03/2026SCHEDULED 76% CONFIDENCEin 40 daysThe City Clerk lists the "GENERAL MUNICIPAL ELECTION Tuesday, November 3, 2026" and the mayor's term "commencing December 14, 2026".^[1]
Mayor Karen Bass faces Councilmember Nithya Raman in the 3 November 2026 general municipal election, the first all-Democrat runoff for LA mayor after Raman edged out Spencer Pratt in June; the winner starts a four-year term on 14 December.
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