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- Sep 3, 202690% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
WMO Warns El Niño Will Be Very Strong and Last Into 2027
- The WMO says there is nearly a 100% probability that El Niño persists through February 2027, and that it will become very strong[1]
- Niño 3.4 sea surface temperatures ran +2.2 to +2.6 °C above average from late July to mid-August, with subsurface waters in places more than 8 °C above normal[1]
- It expects widespread above-normal temperatures over most land areas for September-November 2026 and shifted rainfall, with flooding, drought and extreme heat risks[1]
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole of about 0.9 °C is also forecast, which could reinforce or alter the usual El Niño effects[1]
- WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo says "this exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response", and UN Secretary-General António Guterres says "the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up"[1]
- In July the WMO had forecast rapid intensification, noting record heatwaves such as Germany's 41.7 °C in late June and likely drought in Indonesia and Southeast Asia[2]
References 289% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 89%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%wmo.int/news/media-centre/el-nino-set-become-very-strong-raising-risks-of-extreme-weather-2027wmo.int· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Sep 3, 2026 ✓· 59% of score
The WMO's El Niño update is dated 3 September 2026 and the UN News report on its earlier July forecast confirms the same intensifying trend.
- [2]88%El Niño forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather - UN Newsnews.un.org· Published Jul 3, 2026· 41% of score
UN News report on the WMO[1] July forecast of rapid intensification and its regional impacts.
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Bureau of Meteorology
