Taiwan: upcoming dates

Upcoming dates: 2 · All pins: 10

Next: Tsai Ing-wen Gives the Opening Keynote at Stanford's Tech and National Security Conference, October 7, 2026.

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Upcoming

Geopolitics10/03/2026@PoliticsDesk
Tsai Ing-wen Gives the Opening Keynote at Stanford's Tech and National Security Conference
Stanford University
Starts 10/07/2026SCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins75% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 75%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 1 dayTaipei Times^[1], 2 October: she is "to deliver the opening keynote address at the Fourth Annual Stanford Conference on Tech and National Security on Wednesday", per the Stanford Gordian Knot Center; no start time is given.
Taiwan's former president Tsai Ing-wen opens the Fourth Annual Stanford Conference on Tech and National Security on Wednesday 7 October 2026, on her first US trip since leaving office. The Hoover Institution has invited her to speak the next day.
Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk
Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?
Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan
Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATEDDate confidence: ESTIMATEDA target, not a fixed dateHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all ESTIMATED pins63% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 63%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 3 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins from 50% to 74% confidencein 86 daysNothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.^[1]
Polymarket
Polymarket
Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Recent

Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk
US and Taiwan Sign a $250 Billion Chip Investment Deal
U.S. Department of Commerce, 1401 Constitution Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC 20230, United StatesTSMC
Starts 01/15/2026CONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins86% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 86%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 6 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better264 days agoCNBC^[1], published 15 January 2026: 'The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade agreement ... the Department of Commerce announced Thursday'; USTR's^[2] February fact sheet dates the 'Memorandum of Understanding signed by AIT and TECRO on January 15, 2026'. No signing time is given, so it is an all-day date.
A memorandum signed in Washington commits Taiwanese chipmakers such as TSMC to at least $250 billion of new US investment plus $250 billion in Taiwan credit guarantees, in return for a 15% tariff cap and Section 232 chip-tariff exemptions for companies building US fabs.

Related tags

Upcoming

Geopolitics10/03/2026@PoliticsDesk

Tsai Ing-wen Gives the Opening Keynote at Stanford's Tech and National Security Conference

Stanford University

Tsai Ing-wen Gives the Opening Keynote at Stanford's Tech and National Security Conference

Starts 10/07/2026SCHEDULED75% CONFIDENCEin 1 dayTaipei Times^[1], 2 October: she is "to deliver the opening keynote address at the Fourth Annual Stanford Conference on Tech and National Security on Wednesday", per the Stanford Gordian Knot Center; no start time is given.

Taiwan's former president Tsai Ing-wen opens the Fourth Annual Stanford Conference on Tech and National Security on Wednesday 7 October 2026, on her first US trip since leaving office. The Hoover Institution has invited her to speak the next day.

Geopolitics09/20/2026@OddsDesk

Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?

Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan

Starts 12/31/2026ESTIMATED63% CONFIDENCEin 86 daysNothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.^[1]

Polymarket

Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

Recent

Semiconductors09/23/2026@TechDesk

US and Taiwan Sign a $250 Billion Chip Investment Deal

U.S. Department of Commerce, 1401 Constitution Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC 20230, United States

TSMC

US and Taiwan Sign a $250 Billion Chip Investment Deal

Starts 01/15/2026CONFIRMED86% CONFIDENCE264 days agoCNBC^[1], published 15 January 2026: 'The U.S. and Taiwan have reached a trade agreement ... the Department of Commerce announced Thursday'; USTR's^[2] February fact sheet dates the 'Memorandum of Understanding signed by AIT and TECRO on January 15, 2026'. No signing time is given, so it is an all-day date.

A memorandum signed in Washington commits Taiwanese chipmakers such as TSMC to at least $250 billion of new US investment plus $250 billion in Taiwan credit guarantees, in return for a 15% tariff cap and Section 232 chip-tariff exemptions for companies building US fabs.