Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan

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• 地缘政治2026/09/20@OddsDesk

  Will China Invade Taiwan Before 2027?

  Presidential Office Building, 122 Chongqing South Road, Taipei, Taiwan

  

  开始于 2026/12/31预估可信度 63%99天后Nothing is scheduled: the pin is dated to the market's own deadline, December 31, 2026, the last day the contract can resolve Yes, and the market page shows that only a 4% chance.^[1]

   Polymarket

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   Polymarket

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  Polymarket's contract on China commencing a military offensive against any inhabited territory Taiwan administers, on or before December 31, 2026, showed a 4% chance on 20 September 2026 — its own note put the implied probability of no invasion at 95.8%. A separate market on any direct China-Taiwan military clash over the same window showed 6%.

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• 地缘政治2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  A State Arrival Ceremony for Xi Jinping on the South Lawn

  South Lawn, The White House, Washington, DC, United StatesThe White House

  

  开始于 2026/09/24已排期可信度 80%明天The White House^[1] programme states that "on Thursday morning, September 24, the President and First Lady will host a State Arrival Ceremony". It gives the day but no hour, so the pin is all-day on 24 September.

  479 military personnel from every branch, an Armed Forces Full Honor Cordon, a Rose Garden military review and a flyover by a B-2 and four F-22s: the formal welcome for Xi Jinping on the morning of 24 September 2026, his first White House arrival ceremony since 2015.

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• 地缘政治2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  特朗普在安德鲁斯联合基地迎接习近平

  Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, United StatesThe White House

  

  开始于 2026/09/23 22:30已排期可信度 83%今天总统9月23日的日程中列有“6:00 PM — 总统离开白宫前往安德鲁斯联合基地”，参加“与中华人民共和国主席的抵达仪式”；美联社称习近平和彭丽媛“预计将于周三晚间抵达安德鲁斯联合基地”。东部时间18:30是根据6 PM出发推算的，取代了《南华早报》此前所说的“下午4点左右”。^[1]

  2026年9月23日下午4点左右，特朗普将在安德鲁斯联合基地的停机坪迎接习近平和彭丽媛，这是美国总统极少给予来访国家元首的礼遇。此举拉开习近平9月23日至25日国事访问的序幕，这是他自2015年以来首次访问华盛顿。

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• 地缘政治2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Biden and Xi Meet at Filoli

  Filoli, 86 Cañada Road, Woodside, California, United StatesThe White House

  

  开始于 2023/11/15已确认可信度 78%2.9年前The White House readout is dated 15 November 2023 and states that Biden "today held a Summit with President Xi Jinping of the People's Republic of China (PRC), in Woodside, California".^[1]

  Four hours of talks at a country estate south of San Francisco on 15 November 2023 restarted two things that had been switched off: military-to-military communication, and Chinese cooperation against fentanyl precursors.

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• 地缘政治2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  Pelosi Lands in Taipei

  Taipei Songshan Airport, Songshan District, Taipei, TaiwanUnited States House of Representatives

  

  开始于 2022/08/02已确认可信度 80%4.1年前The delegation's own statement is datelined "Taipei, Taiwan – August 2, 2022" and was "issued this statement upon arrival in Taiwan". No hour is given, so the pin is an all-day one; the landing was late on 2 August local time, which is the same UTC day.^[1]

  The first Speaker of the House to visit Taiwan in 25 years touched down in Taipei on the night of 2 August 2022. Within hours the PLA's Eastern Theater Command began live-fire exercises around the island, opening the Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis.

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• 交通2026/09/15@BuildDesk

  Thailand-China Railway's First Phase Pushed to 2030

  Nakhon Ratchasima, Thailand

  

  开始于 2030/12/31已延期延期4年可信度 66%4.3年后Given as scheduled, per the source^[1]: "Thailand targets 2030 completion of first phase of high-speed rail link to China".

  The Bangkok-to-Nakhon Ratchasima leg of Thailand's high-speed rail link to China, once due by 2026, is now targeted for 2030 after years of delays.

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• 地缘政治2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  The United States and China Issue the Shanghai Communiqué

  Jinjiang Hotel, Maoming South Road, Shanghai, ChinaUS Department of State

  

  开始于 1972/02/27已确认可信度 87%54.6年前Foreign Relations of the United States prints the joint statement under the dateline "Shanghai, February 27, 1972". It is often dated 28 February, the day it reached readers in the United States and the visit's last day; this pin follows the document's own dateline.^[1]

  At the end of Nixon's visit the two governments published a joint statement setting out, separately, what each believed about Taiwan. Washington said it 'acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain that there is but one China' — the sentence US policy has rested on ever since.

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• 半导体2026/09/23@LawDesk

  Supreme Court Makes the TSMC 2nm Leak Sentences Final

  Supreme Court, 6 Changsha Street Section 1, Zhongzheng District, Taipei 10048, Taiwan

  开始于 2026/07/30已确认可信度 88%55天前Focus Taiwan^[1] (CNA^[4]), 30 July 2026: 'The Supreme Court on Thursday rejected appeals by two former ... TSMC employees ... making their sentences final'; PTS^[2] quotes the court's deputy spokesman on the ruling of the 30th. No time is given, so it is an all-day date.

  Taiwan's Supreme Court dismissed the appeals of Chen Li-ming and Chen Wei-chieh, making their 10- and 6-year sentences for leaking TSMC's 2nm and 14nm secrets final; both go straight to prison.

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• 半导体2026/09/20@BuildDesk

  TSMC's Second Arizona Fab Starts Mass Production

  TSMC Arizona campus, N 43rd Avenue at W Dove Valley Road, Phoenix, AZ 85085TSMC

  

  开始于 2027/07/01预估可信度 72%281天后TSMC^[2] said it had "pushed up the mass production schedule for its second wafer fab in the U.S. state of Arizona to the second half of 2027 from the previously planned 2028," naming a half-year rather than a day.

  The second fab on TSMC's north Phoenix campus, whose structure was finished in 2025, is due to begin high-volume manufacturing in the second half of 2027 - a year earlier than the schedule the company had previously given. Chairman C.C. Wei gave the pulled-forward date on 15 January 2026; the campus is the centrepiece of a $165 billion Arizona investment.

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• 动画2026/09/15@AnimeDesk

  False Memory (2026) Premieres

  Beijing, ChinaStudio Tumble

  

  开始于 2026/08/02已确认可信度 92%86%共 7 集52天前Release date confirmed on the title's own MyAnimeList^[1] listing.

  False Memory (2026), a Chinese donghua original streamed on Bilibili, follows Guan Chao's search for the "Burning Stone" needed to power his Time Gun, an accidental fall into the Memory Administration Bureau, and the fights to recover corrupted memories with fellow administrators.

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• 地缘政治2026/09/21@PoliticsDesk

  The United States and China Establish Diplomatic Relations

  Embassy of the United States, Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang, Beijing, ChinaUS Department of State

  

  开始于 1979/01/01已确认可信度 82%47.7年前The Office of the Historian states that "the Joint Communiqué stated that the United States would begin official diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China on January 1, 1979, and that the two countries would open Embassies on March 1". The agreement itself was announced on 15 December 1978.^[1]

  From 1 January 1979 Washington recognised the People's Republic as the sole legal government of China and withdrew recognition from Taipei, ending thirty years in which the United States had treated the Republic of China on Taiwan as the government of all China.

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• 半导体2026/09/23@TechDesk

  TSMC's 1.6nm-Class A16 Process Enters Volume Production

  TSMC·…TSMC headquarters, 8 Lixing 6th Road, Baoshan, Hsinchu County 30082, Taiwan

  开始于 2027/12/31已延期延期12个月可信度 67%1.3年后TSMC's^[2][5] Kevin Zhang told Tom's Hardware "A16 will be ready for production in 2026... we expect volume production to begin in 2027", and TSMC's roadmap slide lists A16 under 2027; with no quarter named, the year's last day stands in.

  A16, TSMC's first node with Super Power Rail backside power delivery, is expected to reach volume production in 2027, a year after the 2026 production TSMC planned when it unveiled the node.

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