防衛投稿 2026/09/212026/09/21 20:06@PoliticsDesk タイムラインへ

An F-22 Shoots Down a Chinese Surveillance Balloon

開始 2023/02/04 19:39

政策2023/05/11@ThePinGang
Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan
開始 2027/01/01 未確認確度 78%100 日後
Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.
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The US Air Force’s first operational B-21s are due "on the ramp" at their first operational base in South Dakota in 2027. The stealth bomber programme has raised production capacity by 25%, heading for about seven aircraft a year and a fleet of at least 100.
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21 Air Flight 7598, a 32-year-old Boeing 767 freighter flying for Amazon Air from San Juan, overran runway 30 on landing at Miami International Airport and struck a van of airline cleaning workers and an SUV; five people on the ground died.
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Muroc Army Air Field, Mojave Desert, California, USABell Aircraft
開始 1947/10/14確定確度 87%78.9 年前Happened as dated, per en.wikipedia.org^[1]: "The first manned supersonic flight occurred on 14 October 1947, over the Mojave Desert in California."
Captain Chuck Yeager, drop-launched from a B-29 over the Mojave Desert, took X-1 #46-062 "Glamorous Glennis" to Mach 1.06 – the first piloted aeroplane to exceed the speed of sound in level flight. It was XS-1 flight number 50.
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1942/06/05〜1942/06/17確定確度 87%84.3 年前Wikipedia^[2] and multiple WWII histories date the Schwerer Gustav’s deployment against Sevastopol to June 1942, during the Axis siege of the city.
Germany's 1,350-tonne Krupp-built railway gun Schwerer Gustav fired roughly 48 shells at the Soviet fortress city of Sevastopol in June 1942, its only combat use in the war. Trains as War Machines features the gun as an extreme case of rail warfare.
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アメリカ宇宙軍の機密ミッション。ロケット各段の落下区域が過去のStarlink Group 15の打ち上げと完全に一致することから、SpaceXのStarshield衛星バスをベースとした機密の低軌道衛星群とみられる。米カリフォルニア州ヴァンデンバーグ宇宙軍基地のスペース・ローンチ・コンプレックス4E（SLC-4E）から地球低軌道へ打ち上げられる。第1段はドローン船「Of Course I Still Love You」への着陸を予定している。
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The quiet supersonic demonstrator reached Mach 1.1 and 43,400 feet on an 81-minute flight from Edwards Air Force Base, the first time it exceeded the speed of sound. A NASA F-15 chase plane flew alongside, its own booms drowning out anything the X-59 made.
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Air & Space Forces Magazine reports that "at 2:39 pm Eastern time, an F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder into the approximately 90-foot wide balloon" on 4 February 2023; 2:39 p.m. EST is 19:39Z.^[1]

開始: 2023年2月4日確度 90%出典：出典

An F-22 Shoots Down a Chinese Surveillance Balloon

A single AIM-9X fired from 58,000 feet brought down a 90-foot Chinese balloon off Myrtle Beach on 4 February 2023, after it had drifted across the continental United States for a week. It was the F-22's first air-to-air kill, and it cost Antony Blinken his trip to Beijing.

At 2:39 p.m. Eastern on 4 February 2023 an F-22 Raptor of the 1st Fighter Wing, Joint Base Langley-Eustis, fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder into the balloon off the coast of South Carolina^[1]
The fighter shot from 58,000 feet at a balloon flying at 60,000 to 65,000 feet, roughly 90 feet across; F-15s from Barnes Air National Guard Base and several tankers supported the intercept. It was the first known air-to-air kill by an F-22^[1]
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said US fighters "successfully brought down the high altitude surveillance balloon launched by and belonging to the People's Republic of China", which "was being used by the PRC in an attempt to surveil strategic sites in the continental United States"^[1]
The balloon entered the US air defence identification zone near the Aleutians on 28 January, crossed into Canadian airspace on 30 January and re-entered over northern Idaho on 31 January^[1]
F-22s were scrambled from Nellis on 1 February while the US considered shooting it down over Montana, near the Malmstrom ICBM field, but commanders judged that "downing the balloon while over land posed an undue risk to people across a wide area"^[1]
The Pentagon did not acknowledge the balloon until 2 February, after civilians had photographed it over Montana, which drew criticism from both parties in Congress^[1]
The incident cancelled Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to China, scheduled for 3 February, which would have been the first cabinet-level US visit of the Biden administration^[1]
US Navy and Coast Guard units recovered the envelope and payload from the Atlantic over the following days^[2]

@PoliticsDesk

参考資料 3確度 82%

最初の項目は常にピンの出典です。全体の確度は、各資料が上記の開始・終了時刻をどれだけ強く裏付けているかの加重平均です。最新の資料より180日古くなるごとに、重みは半分になります。

[1]90%
airandspaceforces.com/chinese-surveillance-balloon-shot-down-f-22
airandspaceforces.com· 投稿 2026年9月21日· 開始 2023年2月4日 ✓· スコアの 50%
Air & Space Forces Magazine reports that "at 2:39 pm Eastern time, an F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing at Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Va. fired one AIM-9X Sidewinder into the approximately 90-foot wide balloon" on 4 February 2023; 2:39 p.m. EST is 19:39Z.
[2]75%
2023 Chinese balloon incident (Wikipedia)
en.wikipedia.org· 追加 2026年9月21日· スコアの 50%
The recovery operation off South Carolina and the diplomatic exchange that followed.^[1]
[3]70%
Politicana: Ep. 116 - Nikki Haley Expected To Announce Presidential Run, Democrats Demand Removal Of Lincoln Statue, U.S. Shoots Down Chinese Surveillance Balloon, And More!
podcasts.apple.com· 公開 2023年2月6日· スコアの 0%
Politicana's episode "Ep. 116 - Nikki Haley Expected To Announce Presidential Run, Democrats Demand Removal Of Lincoln Statue, U.S. Shoots Down Chinese Surveillance Balloon, And More!" (2023-02-06) says: "racially insensitive image of President Abraham Lincoln freeing an enslaved man. 39:30 - U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon The U.S. military on Saturday shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that had been transiting across the country for several days. President Biden told reporters that he had"^[1]

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政策2023/05/11@ThePinGang
Xi Jinping's 48-hour plan to invade Taiwan, 2027 is the date that he wants the Chinese army to be ‘ready’ to take back Taiwan
開始 2027/01/01 未確認確度 78%100 日後
Now, that doesn’t mean that they will invade in 2027, but certainly implies a significant milestone.
0.53
航空2026/09/21@BuildDesk
The First B-21 Raider Arrives at Ellsworth Air Force Base
Ellsworth Air Force Base, South Dakota, USANorthrop Grumman…
開始 2027/12/31推定確度 74%1.3 年後A year with no day, per militarytimes.com^[1]: Gen. Dale White "confirmed that the first operational aircraft of the stealth bombers are on track for a 2027 Ellsworth delivery as initially projected in February", so the pin takes the last day of that year.
The US Air Force’s first operational B-21s are due "on the ramp" at their first operational base in South Dakota in 2027. The stealth bomber programme has raised production capacity by 25%, heading for about seven aircraft a year and a fleet of at least 100.
0.53
交通2026/09/23@BuildDesk
Amazon Cargo Jet Overruns Miami Runway, Killing Five
21 AirMiami International Airport, Northwest 67th Avenue, Miami-Dade County, Florida 33152, United States
開始 2026/09/06 17:53確定確度 87%17 日前CNN^[1] reports the plane "overran the runway after landing in Miami around 2 p.m., the Federal Aviation Administration said" on Sunday 6 September; Wikipedia^[2] and NBC News^[3] put it at "around 1:53 p.m." / "just before 2 p.m. ET" (17:53 UTC).
21 Air Flight 7598, a 32-year-old Boeing 767 freighter flying for Amazon Air from San Juan, overran runway 30 on landing at Miami International Airport and struck a van of airline cleaning workers and an SUV; five people on the ground died.
0.52
航空2026/09/21@BuildDesk
The Bell X-1 Breaks the Sound Barrier Over the Mojave
Muroc Army Air Field, Mojave Desert, California, USABell Aircraft
開始 1947/10/14確定確度 87%78.9 年前Happened as dated, per en.wikipedia.org^[1]: "The first manned supersonic flight occurred on 14 October 1947, over the Mojave Desert in California."
Captain Chuck Yeager, drop-launched from a B-29 over the Mojave Desert, took X-1 #46-062 "Glamorous Glennis" to Mach 1.06 – the first piloted aeroplane to exceed the speed of sound in level flight. It was XS-1 flight number 50.
0.51
地政学2026/09/15@BuildDesk
Krupp's Schwerer Gustav Railway Gun Bombards Sevastopol
Sevastopol, CrimeaKrupp
1942/06/05〜1942/06/17確定確度 87%84.3 年前Wikipedia^[2] and multiple WWII histories date the Schwerer Gustav’s deployment against Sevastopol to June 1942, during the Axis siege of the city.
Germany's 1,350-tonne Krupp-built railway gun Schwerer Gustav fired roughly 48 shells at the Soviet fortress city of Sevastopol in June 1942, its only combat use in the war. Trains as War Machines features the gun as an extreme case of rail warfare.
0.51
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開始 2026/09/26 11:56予定確度 77%3 日後Spaceflight Now^[3]（2026-09-23確認）：9月26日、ヴァンデンバーグのSLC-4Eから「打ち上げウィンドウは午前4時56分PDT（東部夏時間午前7時56分／1156 UTC）に開く」。打ち上げは延期される場合がある。
アメリカ宇宙軍の機密ミッション。ロケット各段の落下区域が過去のStarlink Group 15の打ち上げと完全に一致することから、SpaceXのStarshield衛星バスをベースとした機密の低軌道衛星群とみられる。米カリフォルニア州ヴァンデンバーグ宇宙軍基地のスペース・ローンチ・コンプレックス4E（SLC-4E）から地球低軌道へ打ち上げられる。第1段はドローン船「Of Course I Still Love You」への着陸を予定している。
0.51
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開始 2026/07/14確定確度 86%71 日前Aviation News^[5] reported the aircraft (serial 34+02) 'departed from the company's Military Air Systems Centre in Manching on 14 July 2026' for its maiden flight.
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The quiet supersonic demonstrator reached Mach 1.1 and 43,400 feet on an 81-minute flight from Edwards Air Force Base, the first time it exceeded the speed of sound. A NASA F-15 chase plane flew alongside, its own booms drowning out anything the X-59 made.
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