- Start
- Jul 31, 202490% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Holds Rates at 5.25%-5.50% at the July 2024 FOMC Meeting With Unemployment Edging Up
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided on 31 July 2024 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, with the statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT[1]
- The statement said job gains had moderated and the unemployment rate had moved up but remained low, with some further progress toward the 2 percent inflation objective[1]
- All twelve voting members voted for the action, Austan Goolsbee as an alternate member[1]
- Kalshi's Fed funds rate market for the month resolved Yes up to "Above 5.25%" and No above it, an upper bound of 5.50%, with 1.4 million contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Polymarket's July decision market resolved to No Change, with about $3 million traded[4]
- Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference after the statement[2]
References 485% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htmfederalreserve.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Jul 31, 2024 ✓· 25% of score
The Federal Reserve's[2] statement is dated 31 July 2024 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 30-31 July meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi[3] and Polymarket[4] decision markets.
- [2]95%FOMC Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 25% of score
The Federal Reserve's[1] own calendar lists the July 30-31 2024 meeting and links its statement, implementation note and press conference.
- [3]80%Fed funds rate in July 2024? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 25% of score
Kalshi's FED market for the meeting resolved on 31 July 2024, with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 5.25%", and 1.4 million contracts were traded.
- [4]75%Fed Interest Rates: July 2024 - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 25% of score
Polymarket's event for the meeting resolved to No Change, with about $3 million traded, independently confirming the outcome.
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