Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 3.75%-4.00% at the October 2025 FOMC Meeting and Will End Balance Sheet Runoff

More like this

• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 4.00%-4.25% at the September 2025 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 09/17/2025 6:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.0 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 17 September 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 16-17 September meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent on 17 September 2025 by an 11-1 vote, with Stephen Miran preferring a half-point cut.

  0.81

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 4.50%-4.75% at the November 2024 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 11/07/2024 7:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.9 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 7 November 2024 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 6-7 November meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent on 7 November 2024, with all twelve voting members in favour.

  0.80

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Cuts Rates by Half a Point to 4.75%-5.00% at the September 2024 FOMC Meeting

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 09/18/2024 6:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better2.0 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 18 September 2024 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 17-18 September meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent on 18 September 2024 by an 11-1 vote, with Michelle Bowman preferring a quarter-point cut.

  0.80

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 3.50%-3.75% at the December 2025 FOMC Meeting With Three Dissents

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 12/10/2025 7:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better295 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 10 December 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 9-10 December meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 10 December 2025 by a 9-3 vote and began buying shorter-term Treasury securities to keep reserves ample.

  0.80

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 4.25%-4.50% at the December 2024 FOMC Meeting With One Dissent

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 12/18/2024 7:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.8 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 18 December 2024 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 17-18 December meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 18 December 2024 by an 11-1 vote, with Beth Hammack preferring to hold.

  0.78

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the July 2025 FOMC Meeting With Two Governors Dissenting for a Cut

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 07/30/2025 6:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.2 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 30 July 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 29-30 July meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 30 July 2025 by a 9-2 vote, with Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller preferring a quarter-point cut.

  0.78

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the March 2025 FOMC Meeting and Slows Its Balance Sheet Runoff

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 03/19/2025 6:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins87% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.5 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2][3] statement is dated 19 March 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 18-19 March meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[4] and Polymarket^[5] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 19 March 2025 and cut the Treasury redemption cap to $5 billion a month from April, with Christopher Waller dissenting.

  0.78

  00
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at 3.50%-3.75% at the January 2026 FOMC Meeting With Two Dissents for a Cut

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 01/28/2026 7:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better246 days agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 28 January 2026 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 27-28 January meeting on its calendar and the strike times of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent on 28 January 2026 by a 10-2 vote, with Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller preferring a quarter-point cut.

  0.77

  01
• Economy10/01/2026@EconDesk

  Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the January 2025 FOMC Meeting After Three Cuts

  Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, 20th St & Constitution Ave NW, Washington, DCFederal Reserve

  

  Starts 01/29/2025 7:00PMCONFIRMEDDate confidence: CONFIRMEDStated as firmHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all CONFIRMED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better1.7 years agoThe Federal Reserve's^[1][2] statement is dated 29 January 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 28-29 January meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi^[3] and Polymarket^[4] decision markets.

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

   Polymarket

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC left the federal funds target range at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent on 29 January 2025, with all twelve voting members in favour.

  0.77

  00
• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the September 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 09/15/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 349 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "September 14-15" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its September 14-15 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 59%, Hike 25bps 20%, Cut 25bps 6%.

  0.76

  01
• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the October 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 10/27/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 1.1 yearsThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "October 26-27" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its October 26-27 2027 meeting. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 54%, Hike 25bps 46%, Cut 25bps 7%.

  0.76

  01
• Economy09/21/2026@EconDesk

  The Fed Sets Rates at the March 2027 Meeting

  Eccles Building, Washington, D.C., United StatesFederal Reserve System

  

  Starts 03/17/2027 6:00PMSCHEDULEDDate confidence: SCHEDULEDGiven as scheduledHow firmly the source words the date: confirmed, scheduled, estimated, delayed or unverified.Show all SCHEDULED pins85% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 2 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or betterin 167 daysThe Federal Reserve's^[2] published FOMC calendar lists the meeting as "March 16-17" 2027, and Kalshi's^[1] market for it strikes at the decision time on the second day. The Fed adds that "Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it".

   Kalshi

  •   
  •   

  The FOMC announces its rate decision on the second day of its March 16-17 2027 meeting. The meeting is one of the four in 2027 that comes with a Summary of Economic Projections - the "dot plot" - and a press conference. On 21 September 2026 Kalshi last traded Fed maintains rate 67%, Hike 25bps 27%, Cut 25bps 10%.

  0.76

  01