- Start
- Mar 19, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Holds Rates at 4.25%-4.50% at the March 2025 FOMC Meeting and Slows Its Balance Sheet Runoff
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided on 19 March 2025 to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with the statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT[1]
- The statement said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased, and that from April the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities would fall from $25 billion to $5 billion[1]
- Eleven members voted for the action; Christopher Waller voted against, supporting no change in the rate but preferring to keep the current pace of decline in securities holdings[1]
- The Summary of Economic Projections' median put the federal funds rate at 3.9 percent at the end of 2025 and 3.4 percent at the end of 2026[3]
- Kalshi's decision market resolved to No change, with 2.8 million contracts traded across its five outcomes[4]
- Polymarket's March decision market resolved to No Change, with about $78 million traded[5]
- Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference after the statement[2]
References 587% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250319a.htmfederalreserve.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Mar 19, 2025 ✓· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve's[2][3] statement is dated 19 March 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 18-19 March meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi[4] and Polymarket[5] decision markets.
- [2]95%FOMC Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve's[1][3] own calendar lists the March 18-19 2025 meeting and links its statement, implementation note and press conference.
- [3]95%Summary of Economic Projections, March 2025 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
The Fed's projection table, whose median federal funds rate figures the pin quotes.[1]
- [4]80%Fed decision in March 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
Kalshi's KXFEDDECISION market for the meeting resolved on 19 March 2025 to No change, and 2.8 million contracts were traded.
- [5]75%Fed decision in March? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
Polymarket's event for the meeting resolved to No Change, with about $78 million traded, independently confirming the outcome.
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