- Start
- May 3, 202390% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Raises Rates a Quarter Point to 5.00%-5.25% at the May 2023 FOMC Meeting
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided on 3 May 2023 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 5.00%-5.25%, with the statement released at 2:00 p.m. EDT[1]
- The statement opened: "Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low."[1]
- All 11 voting members voted for the action[1]
- Kalshi's Fed funds rate market for the month resolved Yes up to "Above 5.00%" and No above it, an upper bound of 5.25%, with 1.5 million contracts traded across its thresholds[3]
- Polymarket's May rate market resolved to a 25 bps increase, with about $249 thousand traded[4]
- Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference after the statement[2]
References 485% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 85%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 4 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230503a.htmfederalreserve.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts May 3, 2023 ✓· 25% of score
The Federal Reserve's[2] statement is dated 3 May 2023 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. EDT, matching the May 2023 meeting on its calendar.
- [2]95%FOMC Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 25% of score
The Federal Reserve's[1] own calendar page lists the May 2023 meeting and links its statement, implementation note and press conference.
- [3]80%Fed funds rate in May 2023? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 25% of score
Kalshi's FED market for the meeting resolved with its highest Yes threshold at "Above 5.00%", and 1.5 million contracts were traded.
- [4]75%Fed Interest Rates: May 2023 - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 25% of score
Polymarket's event for the meeting resolved to a 25 bps increase, with about $249 thousand traded, independently confirming the outcome.
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