- Start
- Dec 10, 202590% CONFIDENCEfrom the source
Fed Cuts Rates a Quarter Point to 3.50%-3.75% at the December 2025 FOMC Meeting With Three Dissents
- The Federal Open Market Committee decided on 10 December 2025 to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, with the statement released at 2:00 p.m. EST[1]
- Nine members voted for the action; Stephen Miran preferred a 1/2 point cut, and Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred no change[1]
- The Committee judged that reserve balances had declined to ample levels and would purchase shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves[1]
- The Summary of Economic Projections' median put the federal funds rate at 3.6 percent at the end of 2025 and 3.4 percent at the end of 2026[3]
- Kalshi's decision market resolved to Cut 25bps, with 40.0 million contracts traded across its five outcomes[4]
- Polymarket's December decision market resolved to 25 bps decrease, with about $394 million traded[5]
- Chair Jerome Powell held a press conference after the statement[2]
References 587% CONFIDENCEOverall confidence: 87%How well the pin's source and references back up its dates.Weighted average of how firmly 5 references, the source included, support the pin's start and end times; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newestShow all pins at 75% confidence or better
The first entry is always the pin's source. Overall confidence is a weighted average of how firmly each reference supports the start and end times used above; a reference counts half as much for every 180 days older than the newest.
- [1]90%federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htmfederalreserve.gov· Posted Oct 1, 2026· Starts Dec 10, 2025 ✓· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve's[2][3] statement is dated 10 December 2025 and marked for release at 2:00 p.m. ET, matching the 9-10 December meeting on its calendar and the resolution date of the Kalshi[4] and Polymarket[5] decision markets.
- [2]95%FOMC Meeting calendars and information - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
The Federal Reserve's[1][3] own calendar lists the December 9-10 2025 meeting and links its statement, implementation note and press conference.
- [3]95%Summary of Economic Projections, December 2025 - Federal Reserve Boardfederalreserve.gov· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
The Fed's projection table, whose median federal funds rate figures the pin quotes.[1]
- [4]80%Fed decision in December 2025? - Kalshikalshi.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
Kalshi's KXFEDDECISION market for the meeting resolved on 10 December 2025 to Cut 25bps, and 40.0 million contracts were traded.
- [5]75%Fed decision in December? - Polymarketpolymarket.com· Added Oct 1, 2026· 20% of score
Polymarket's event for the meeting resolved to 25 bps decrease, with about $394 million traded, independently confirming the outcome.
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